U.S.A. and Canada Forecast Assumptions US economy grows 3.5% this year avg. 3.4% to 2010 Canadian economy avg. 2.7% growth Interest rates average 3.8% this year rising to 4% by ‘07 to ’10 in Canada – rising to 4.5% by ’06 through ’09 in US C$ to remain around $0.83US over forecast period.

Alberta Forecast Assumptions Investment growth fuels economy Population growth avg. 2.2% in ’06 and 2% for balance of period. Alberta Unemployment falls to 3.9% in ’06 & ’07 before rising somewhat Inflation increases to 2.5% in ’06 – falls to avg. 2.1% through to ’10

Oil & Gas Prices Oil US$59 /barrel WTI in ’06 dropping next year to $50 – averaging $45 for balance of forecast period Gas US$9.50/MMBTU in ’06 falling by $1 per year to $6.50 by ’09 then slight recovery.

Investment Expenditure Components Residential Investment –New homes –Renovations Non-Residential Investment –Engineering Construction –Building Construction –Machinery & Equipment

Housing Starts & Household Formation (000’s)

Non-Res. Building Construction Investment ( 1997 Millions)

Engineering Construction Investment ($1997 Millions)

Oil Sands Investment ($2005 Millions)

Are There Enough Workers? By late 2007 to early 2008 Alberta will not have enough skilled workers in Industrial Trades to meet the needs on projected Engineering Construction Projects Are there enough in Canada? What about the rest of the World?

Irving Oil Projects

Total Labour Force Retirements (000’s)

Maximize our Resources Train more supervisors Bring women into the trades Utilize aboriginal labour Promote the trades to young people or underemployed Hire more apprentices and starters

What Else Can We Do? Work with other Provinces and HRSDC –Promote Red Seal and equivalency assessments –Facilitate inter-provincial mobility –Provide upgrading & training –Identify areas with unemployed trades

Open Alberta to the World Open Canada to skilled trades immigration & promote Alberta as a destination Utilize the Provincial Nominee program Identify sources of skilled workers in other Countries and prepare for them Plan for coordinated use of Temporary Foreign Workers