Xiang DING Presented by Aixia DOU Institute of Earthquake Science China Earthquake Administration China Earthquake Administration Friday, July 29,2011 IGARSS 2011, July 25-29, Vancouver, Canada

 Introduction  The Design Object of the System  The Basic Model for Earthquake Risk Assessment  Earthquake Risk Assessment  The Main Functions of CERES  Conclusion and Acknowledgement 22

The Catastrophe Earthquake Risk Estimation System (CERES for Windows) is a professional software system developed specifically for the risk assessment of catastrophe earthquakes in the next ten years in Asia. 33

 Earthquake risk assessment  Information service  Earthquake risk mapping of Asia 44

Development Tools  ArcEngine 9.2  Visual Studio VB.NET 2005 DataBase Micros oft Access  Oracle Runing Environment MS Windows XP or upper version 55

Conventional models of ER (Wang et al, 2007) or R - the estimated seismic risk value L - the life or economic losses P(Y) - the probability of occurrence of seismic ground motion Y (Seismic hazard probability) V(Y) - the vulnerability of social wealth (life, building or economic index such as GDP) in Y W - Social wealth 66

A new ER model developed by Wang et al (2009) OR R - the estimated seismic risk value L - the life or economic losses P(Y) - the probability of occurrence of seismic ground motion Y (Seismic hazard probability) A - the ability of disaster reduction V(Y|A) - the vulnerability under the condition of A W - Social wealth 77

The basic process of risk assessment for catastrophe earthquake 88 Seismic Vulnerability Social Wealth Losses & Vulnerability of Catastrophe EQ. Social & Economic Development Factors affecting Seismic Risk Seismic Risk Seismic Hazard Activity of Catastrophe EQ.

The system function frame chart 99

SystemMenusofCERES  1010

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 1313 The Input of Earthquake Parameters Database maintain  Add/Batch Add  Delete/Batch Delete  Update  Cancel  Find  Auxiliary input list

 1414 Query According to the User Defined Conditions

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Interface of Control Params for Risk Assessment  2020

Interface of Control Params for Risk Assessment  2121 Example of Risk Assessment

 2222  Death toll of Ms7.1Yushu earthquake  Actual: 2698  Miss: 270  Fast Estimated : 1423 Estimated Seismic Intensity Distribution of 2010 Ms7.0 Yushu Earthquake, Qinghai Province, China Interface of Control Params for Fast Loss Assessment

The Catastrophe Earthquake Risk Estimation System (CERES) has been showing the potential ability in practical research of risk assessment in Asia while the results have not been presented here for a limited extent of paper. The research was supported by Ministry of Science & Technology of China (NO. 2008BAC44B02).  2323

Thank you! 24 Ding xiang