Town Meeting Financial Planning Overview February 7, 2005.

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Presentation transcript:

Town Meeting Financial Planning Overview February 7, 2005

Collaborative Process Board of Selectmen Warrant Committee School Committee Capital Budget Committee

Structural Gap - Inflation ($mm)

Cost Savings Lower-cost Health Care Provider Consolidation of Public Works Limited Wage Growth (FY04 and FY05) New Solid Waste Disposal Contract Restrictions on Town-Owned Vehicles Targeted Early Retirement Incentive Energy Savings for Town/School Buildings

Collaborative Policy Definition Policies –Debt level –Reserve level –Revenue growth rate Goals –Financial stability to support services –Defined expectations to reduce controversy

Near Term (0-5 yrs.) and Ongoing Longer Term PUBLIC FUNDING ·WELLINGTON ·ROADS ·SEWER/STORM* ·WATER MAINS* ·TOWN YARD ·POLICE STATION PUBLIC- PRIVATE FUNDING ·SENIOR CENTER·MAIN LIBRARY ·UNDERWOOD ·SKATING RINK ·FIELD HOUSE · HIGH SCHOOL “We have defined broad priorities – near vs longer term, public vs. public-private.” * Rate-based Funding

Growth of the Single Family Tax Bill

Alternative 10 Year Programs Tax Growth 2.2%2.8%4.3%5% Capital Program NoneProposedNoneProposed OverridesNone Triennial Phased Service Level by 2016 Deep Cuts (to -16%) Deep Cuts (to -16%) Slight Recovery (to +3%) Slight Recovery (to +3%)

Economic Assumptions Almost Flat State Aid and other (1.65%) Achievable Commercial Growth (Real 1%) McLean at $1m net phased 2010 to 2017 Historic Market Salary Increases (3%) Reduced Health Care Inflation (to 10%) Bargained 10% cost shift of health care

Cost of Proposed Capital and Level Services in Alternative Economic Scenarios Economic AssumptionsRequired Tax Growth Assumptions as shown on last slide4.5% As shown but Optimistic Development (2% Real Commercial Growth. $2m net McLean all online by 2016; $1m net Uplands in 2010) 4.2% As shown but Higher Health Inflation (15%; but 10% cost shift bargained) 5.4%

Implications Operating cost inflation requires tax bill inflation in the 4-5% range to avoid cuts The capital project program adds only roughly 0.6% to the tax bill inflation rate. Optimistic economic development can only cut required tax bill inflation slightly. Health care costs are the wild card.

Next Steps Continue community discussion about level of services citizens are willing to support Refine analysis of key economic factors Continue collaboration of town boards and committees Build consensus around long term fiscal policies