1 CAPRI Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11./12. April 2005 CAPRI-Dynaspat Project Second Project Workshop Prague, 11. and 12.April 2004

2 CAPRI Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11./12. April 2005 Introduction Thanks to the Prague team for hosting us A busy year for CAPRI: negotiations and start of SEAMLESS, unforeseen IPTS project, demand from the commission … … and a quite successful start for our project: –East expansion much further then expected (model runs on preliminary data for EU27..) Excellent co-operation on GIS-link between JRC and Bonn –Regular optimistic signals on energy and labor … but still a lot to do and discuss …

3 CAPRI Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11./12. April 2005 Current project with CAPRI 3 “Specific Targeted Research Projects”: –CAPRI-Dynaspat –Eu-Med-Agpol  trade liberalization with Mediterrean countries (3/2004-3/2007) –MercoPol  trade liberalization with South American countries (4/2005-4/2008) 2 “Integrated projects” –Seamless (Bonn, LEI, IAMM) –Sensor (LEI, The Hague) Project for IPTS Sevilla (Bonn, FAL)

4 CAPRI Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11./12. April 2005 Developments CAPRI Modeling System Farm Types Seamless/IPTS Improved Market Model Eu-MedAgpol/MercoPol /Seamless GIS-Link Labor Energy Dynaspat Recursive Dynamic Dynaspat DNDC Landscape Hydrological Models ? Alternative Land uses Sensor East Expansion Dynaspat

5 CAPRI Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11./12. April 2005 Developments cntd. CAPRI is since October 2004 installed in DG-AGRI First results presented, with in some cases surprisingly good results Decision to use CAPRI for baseline publication in early summer

6 CAPRI Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11./12. April 2005 Organisation CAPRI-Dynaspat Bonn: Co-ordination & Training of partners, Overall model design, Recursive-Dynamic version, scenario analysis Prague:East expansion of CAPRI Ispra:GIS link, bio-phyiscal model for Green House Gas Emissions, Landscape indicator Galway:Labour projections and labour demand Tänikon:Energy use indicator

7 CAPRI Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11./12. April 2005 Overview on tasks Regular updates, reference run, scenario writing and impact analysis –Regular updates of the data base (WP1) –Reference runs (WP2) –Yearly scenario analysis (WP 3) Methodological Improvements of the existing modelling system –Dynamic version of supply module (WP 4) –Dynamic version of market module module (WP 5) –Employment module (WP 7) Improved environmental indicators and link to a Geographical Information system for landscape assessment –Energy use indicator (WP 6) –CAPRI GIS Link (WP 8) –Landscape indicator (WP 9) –Greenhouse gas process model link (WP 10) Preparation for East Expansion –CAPRI east expansion pilot study (WP 11) –CAPRI east epxansion network (WP 12)

8 CAPRI Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11./12. April 2005 CAPRI-Dynaspat: WPs

9 CAPRI Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11./12. April 2005 Regular updates, reference run, scenarios Download latest available data from EuroStat, DG-AGRI, FAO Reconcile data base: –fill gaps –remove inconsistencies –re-estimate input allocation Check for new projections (FAPRI/DG-AGRI/FAO) and revise reference run Contact DG-AGRI, define scenarios, run model and perform impact analysis

10 CAPRI Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11./12. April 2005 Methodological improvements Switch from comparative static (= long run equilibrium) to recursive-dynamic version (=show adjustment path) Re-estimate non-linear cost functions with adjustment costs, embed annual herd size for cattle Introduce partial adjustment model in the market model Employment module (projection + link to activities)

11 CAPRI Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11./12. April 2005 Environmental indicators Introduce „engineering factors“ for energy use in agricultural activities => energy indicator GIS link  develop distribution algorithm from NUTS II results to grid (econometrics, data on climate, soil, elevation etc. necessary at NUTS II/grid level) Bio-Phyiscal process model for GHG  requires GIS link Landscape indicators

12 CAPRI Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11./12. April 2005 East expansion „Pilot study“: full regionalization of CZ, PL and HU Document proceeding to ensure that process can be repeated (in an improved manner) in the remaining MS Build up a network of suitable contacts in the new MS to apply and maintain CAPRI

13 CAPRI Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11./12. April 2005 Agenda for the meeting Monday: Status and outlook WP : –Results achieved –Discussion and decisions on next steps Tuesday morning: Hotspot on East expansion –Short overview on WP4+5 (recursive dynamic version) –Where do we stand –Next steps –What avenues for the different WPs regarding EU-10? Tuesday afternoon: Project management –Reporting –Deliverables –Web-page –Further co-operation, visits..

14 CAPRI Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11./12. April 2005 END