Aidan Forde Council Member NOW Ireland June 2011 Economic signals for investment in offshore wind in Ireland

NOW Ireland Codling Wind Park Oriel Windfarm Limited Fuinneamh Sceirde Teo Saorgus Energy Limited Capacity of over 2680 MW from existing project areas with potential for a further 4000 MW. Potential investment of over €8bn 60bn supply chain opportunity in the Irish Sea (€300bn in North Sea and Baltic) Export of renewables can rival agri-food and tourism By 2030, more than 375,000 people will be employed in the EU wind energy sector – 160,000 onshore and 215,000 offshore.

The National Security Reason for Renewables Ireland is the most energy insecure country of its size or larger in Europe (after LU, MT and CY) Global natural gas usage to double by 2035 (FT last week) Many gas contracts linked to oil prices Corrib/LNG/storage will help secure medium term security of supply but no price hedge Increase in oil and gas prices has a disproportionate impact on Irish GDP Ireland holds a few days of gas supply - interruption would have an even greater effect! Nuclear issues becoming clearer - implication is gradual rise in EU gas prices OFGEM Chief has recently described UK as heading off an electricity generation cliff EU policy clear - is Irish policy just an element of EU policy? Still at 16% in 2020 Should we be more ambitious?

The Domestic Economic Case for Offshore Wind (Most of these comments can be applied to some extent to all marine renewables) Two recent studies show that merit order effect of onshore wind equals onshore PSO cost Value of fuel price hedge not priced in to analyses generally Hedge against EU fines not priced in generally Supply chain benefits not generally priced in (jobs we would not otherwise have)

Indecon Cost-Benefit Analysis Independent study commissioned by NOW Ireland in March 2008 resulting in “Economic Analysis of the Potential for Offshore Wind Energy Generation in Ireland” published by Indecon in September 2008 Shows primary net direct benefit for Ireland Inc. of up to €1.7 billion Extra quantifiable indirect benefits €2.1 billion including Merit Order Effect, employment, carbon fines saved, reduced emissions, etc. In virtually all scenarios there is a direct net benefit, in all scenarios there is an economic benefit when indirect benefits are included Cost to Government of carbon fines 2008 – 2012 €1.17 billion 2680MW in the consenting process for NOW Ireland Members and an estimated further 4000MW possible on Irish east coast alone Written in 2008 but assumptions broadly now (or very soon) in line again

ESRI view ESRI analysis is that onshore wind is cheapest renewable so let’s use this exclusively If there are blockages, just throw money at them - not a considered approach Approx. 1,500 MW on line onshore (5,000 MW renewables needed for targets?) 115 MW was brought onto the system last year and for the last 6 years the average has been 200 MW per year 1873 MW or 48% of Gate 3 projects are in Natura 2000 sites 2077 MW or 53% of Gate 3 have firm access dates post 2018 Gate 3 deposits (CER) pose a significant threat at this stage of development SEM regulatory threat significant Can we assume an increase in public acceptance? So, any low hanging fruit left onshore? A portfolio of renewables is clearly needed - opposite of ESRI view

DCENR agrees!

Over the horizon?

Europe needs Renewable Energy Ireland, Norway, & UK own the windy parts of the Ocean

From a recent presentation in Dublin by Geirr Haarr of Statoil

From a recent presentation in Dublin by Geirr Haarr of Statoil

12 But, for the time being……. Greening of energy sources is a national security issue which private capital is being asked to resolve Suitable investment and regulatory conditions a “no-brainer” but not there Clear that a portfolio approach for 2020 is essential ESRI will regret advising reliance on a single renewable technology for 2020