Technology Impacts on the Future of Transportation Mark Hallenbeck, Director of the Washington State Transportation Center, University of Washington 1

Remember… We are planning for humans… They act in mostly rational ways based on their perception of reality, and its costs and benefits Private businesses happily invent and sell services to people when the prices people are willing to pay exceed the cost of providing those services New technology just allows more of those services 2

Technology and the Future New technology changes the parameters about travel decisions It can change the perception of Cost Travel time, and travel time reliability Safety Convenience Comfort Flexibility 3

Perception of time can change with technology 4

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Transportation Mode for 20 to 24 Years, Central Puget Sound Region, Take my keys, not my phone! Losing which piece of technology would have the greatest impact: 55+ = 10% phone vs. 44% car = 14% phone vs. 49% car = 28% phone vs. 33% car = 39% phone vs. 26% car Younger generations value the car less

Size and Density of Area Effects Available Services The business case for many transportation services changes with development density Large, dense urban areas will have quality services that smaller, less dense areas do not For example, how good (and heavily used) is taxi service in the exurbs, vs downtown 7

Size and Density of Area Effects Available Services So what happens in San Francisco and Seattle is likely to be different than what happens in Nashville or Orlando (or Peoria and Ames) And the future for each city starts from its existing built environment 8

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Size and Density of Area Effects Available Services If parking costs money Additional transportation services become attractive There is a financial incentive to not drive Additional transportation services are competitive If parking is free and available, and distances are long, people will drive themselves 10

Technology Will Effect Travel In Four Basic Ways Better Traveler Information New Transportation Services New Payment Mechanisms Advanced and Autonomous Vehicles 11

Traveler Information Prediction: More accurate up-to-the minute information will be delivered to travelers through a wide variety of media Frequently provides the information needed, When it is needed 12

Transit Arrival Trip Planning 13 Real Time Transit Routing, Schedule Alerts??? From smartphones

14 To Virtual Kiosks

15 To Electronic Signs Beside Roadways

16 To In Car Navigation and Communication Systems (Telematics)

Information will be more modally agnostic 17

Navigation (Real time and planning) 18

Better Information Allows travelers to understand what options exist Encourages use of “unusual modes” (Travelers can learn about their availability) Grows alternative mode use when those modes make competitive sense

Information improves freight travel as well Load TrackingLoad ConsolidationRouting

For public sector planners Plan to get information out about what services are available The public sector controls many of these data When done right, their data is better than crowd sourced data Encourage the private sector to deliver that information They will do it better and at little or no cost But keep core functionality alive publicly 21

New Information Technology Connects Buyers to Sellers This allows new services to exist And flourish, where a business case exists 22

Connecting buyers and sellers creates new services Uber Lyft

Connecting buyers and sellers creates new services Car2GoBike Finder

New Services Work in some densities and not in others May require specific types of infrastructure accommodations Bike lanes Parking spaces Regulatory approval Legal ground rules Can be contentious 25

New Services Are often driven by the private sector And take advantage of new payment mechanisms Imagine not just on-street and commercial parking but Shared condo parking 26

New Services New business opportunities are limited mostly by the imagination (and a good business case) Smartphone apps allow delivery of information Automated, electronic payment allows easy money transfer Social media gives added security via personal identification 27

28 The “Original” One Bus Away

Technology makes paying easier

New payment mechanisms are good, because we will need the money 30

Dramatically increasing fuel efficiency standards At least 12 companies with an electric car on the market Changing Fuel Technology Helps the Environment But Decimates Gas Tax as a Revenue Source

Many aspects are already available Automated Vehicles – 95% Here Or almost here

Others are still a ways off 33 ~ How does an automated car make this left turn when no other cars are automated? 35 mph Speed Limit ~

Fully automated, driverless vehicles are still years off How automated vehicles are regulated greatly impacts what they mean for regional travel In theory, they Reduce crashes, Double freeway capacity Arterial capacity??? Decrease the “perceived cost” of time spent in the vehicle 34

Does a qualified driver need to be in the automated car? Can an individual own a fully automated car, or just a company with big liability insurance? If individuals own them – VMT and sprawl goes up Lots of extra miles driven (w/o people) Much lower perceived cost of congestion If only Google & Uber own them - VMT goes down Priced per use, perception of cost goes up 35 Key Policy Questions

Where tech goes next is uncertain