Climate Change and Ecosystems IV Presidential Meeting CGDD & IFHC Sao Paulo, Brazil March 7, 2009 Thomas E. Lovejoy Biodiversity Chair, The Heinz Center.

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Change and Ecosystems IV Presidential Meeting CGDD & IFHC Sao Paulo, Brazil March 7, 2009 Thomas E. Lovejoy Biodiversity Chair, The Heinz Center Washington, D.C. THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Dr. Svante August Arrhenius

Source: Wallace Broecker Analysis of a Greenland ice core oxygen isotope proxy

Image Courtesy of NASA

© WWF-Cannon / Jurgen Freund

Mountain Pine Beetle outbreaks ( ) Courtesy of Mike Bradley, Canfor Corporation

Science Magazine, November 23, 2007 IPCC Climate Change and Impact Projections

What is a “safe” level? James Hansen, et al., ppm

Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions ( ) Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated) 1.5 Pg C y Pg C y -1 Atmosphere 46% 4.2 Pg y -1 Land 29% 2.6 Pg y -1 Oceans 26% 2.3 Pg y -1

Natural CO 2 Sinks absorb 55% of all Emissions 55% discount on human- induced climate change. A subsidy to the global economy worth half a trillion US$ annually if an equivalent sink had to be created (eg, EU- Emission Trading Sch.). Canadell and Raupach 2008, Science

R.A. Houghton, unpublished Emissions from Deforestation minus Reforestation Pg C yr Africa Latin America S. & SE Asia Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change SUM (Pg C y -1 )

% CO 2 Emissions in Atmosphere Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 2006 Decline in the Efficiency of CO 2 Natural Sinks Fraction of all anthropogenic emissions that stay in the atmosphere Emissions 1 tCO 2 400Kg stay Emissions 1 tCO 2 450Kg stay Growth rate trend: 0.23% y −1

Efficiency of Natural Sinks Land Fraction Ocean Fraction Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

deforestation tropics extra-tropics CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project (2008) PgC

deforestation fossil fuel emissions CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project (2008) PgC

fossil fuel emissions deforestation CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project (2008) PgC

fossil fuel emissions deforestation CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y) atmospheric CO 2 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project (2008) PgC

atmospheric CO 2 fossil fuel emissions deforestation ocean CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project (2008) PgC

atmospheric CO 2 ocean land fossil fuel emissions deforestation CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project (2008) PgC

Over the past three centuries, ecosystems have lost billion tons of carbon

Long atmospheric residence times for greenhouse gases

Origin of land plants Expansion of angiosperms Present-day CO 2 The Role of Life Processes

Planetary Engineering Using Ecosystems CO2 PPM Time 280

The Role of Forests

Photo courtesy USDA NRCS Restoring Grazing Land

Photos: United States Department of Agriculture—Natural Resources Conservation Service. Restoring soil carbon through agriculture

Re-Greening the Emerald Planet