Let's get this transition moving! James Meadowcroft Canada Research Chair in Governance for Sustainable Development School of Public Policy and Administration, Carleton University Big Ideas for Sustainable Prosperity Conference Ottawa, April 28-29, 2014

Let's get this transition moving! Outline Four suggestions: Frame the discussion in terms of transition Explore regional pathways Develop green economic strategies Consider low carbon politics as well as economics

Frame the discussion in terms of transition The idea of transition Socio technical transitions   incremental and system change;   regimes, niches, landscape;   lock-in and path dependence;   visions, hype, hybrids;   politics and policy   the automotive example

Transitions 2 Advantages of a transition framing:   For public discussion : move beyond short term focus; sense of directionality: ultimately end fossil fuel related GHG emissions from the energy sector; Critique exploitation of the phrase: ‘Fossil fuels will continue to meet the bulk of our energy needs for many decades to come’; ‘lower’ versus ‘low’ carbon economy.   For policy : help coordinate societal actors; links to strategic approaches such a carbon budgeting; guidance for strengthening systems of innovation; emphasise collective visions and pathways, a portfolio of experiments; a perspective to judge particular policy instruments. Already adopted to some degree in countries such as Sweden, Denmark, UK, and especially Germany (Energiewende)   For research : barriers and enabling conditions, technology development and deployment, public acceptance, experiments.

Explore regional pathways to a low carbon economy National preoccupation National preoccupation Canada’s regional energy political economies Canada’s regional energy political economies Includes: resources; provincial electricity sector; energy dependent industrial and economic activity; government strategies and programs; influence on political system and regional identity   Quebec, Alberta, Ontario, But also unifying dimensions. Energy export markets; energy firms; Canadian financial sector; economic pull; Federal jurisdiction; consumer experience; international character of core low carbon technologies and export opportunities.

Regional pathways 2 Regional pathways: start from existing political economy, comparative advantages and opportunities. Regional pathways: start from existing political economy, comparative advantages and opportunities..) ( Alberta versus Quebec.) Defining such pathways includes: Defining such pathways includes:   Understanding historical trajectory;   Identifying firms and clusters with potential to propel decarbonisation   Identifying key resources and promising technologies   Building visions that draw on local traditions and potential   Exploiting local governance institutions   Identifying complementarities with neighboring jurisdictions, and nationally

Green economic strategies Fall from grace of traditional ‘industrial strategy’ Fall from grace of traditional ‘industrial strategy’ But in practice governments routinely intervene But in practice governments routinely intervene Old industrial policy and new green economic strategies Old industrial policy and new green economic strategies Carbon pricing important, but not sufficient Carbon pricing important, but not sufficient ‘Picking winners’ argument ‘Picking winners’ argument

Green economic strategies 2 Start by considering whether we can exploit existing resources, infrastructure, technological capacity and expertise to leverage into greener areas. Start by considering whether we can exploit existing resources, infrastructure, technological capacity and expertise to leverage into greener areas.  Can we extend existing comparative advantages in new directions?  Can we identify new potential advantages in a carbon constrained world?  Are there strategies to invest in natural capital that would extend these advantages? Research questions: Research questions: What have other jurisdictions done? What has been done in Canada with traditional industrial policy? (eg: oil sands) with the green economy? (eg Ontario Green Energy and Economy Act). What works and what does not work?

Consider low carbon politics as well as low carbon economics Primary obstacles not technological or economic Primary obstacles not technological or economic Think more politically : Think more politically :   Building coalitions (green business sector)   Governance institutions (eg: UK carbon budgets, Climate Change Committee)   Burden sharing (EU example)   Efficiency is not everything   De-legitimising opponents   Weakening structural power of incumbents (for example, attack oil demand, not supply)