National Journal Presentation Credits The Outlook for 2014 By Josh Kraushaar, Political Editor Updated October 28, 2014 Contributor: Josh Kraushaar Producers: Catherine Treyz, Chris Danello, and David Stauffer Director: Jessica Guzik

Possible gain of 5-10 seats Majority control In the House Odds are that the House will remain stable Possible Republican gain of 5-10 seats Possible gain of 6+ seats Majority control Odds Favor GOP Projected Party Composition Shifts 2 In the Senate Odds are roughly 75% for a Republican takeover of the Senate Republicans are likely to net 6 to 9 seats, and a wave is looking increasingly likely Many races will swing together, e.g. if Sen. Hagan (D-NC) loses, difficult to see Sen. Landrieu (D-LA) or Sen. Pryor (D-AR) winning If Republicans are able to win three of four toss-up races in IA, CO, NC and NH, it will be a big night for the GOP

Factors At Play In Midterm Elections National MoodEconomy Economy is improving, but slowly Right track/wrong track measures are very unfavorable for party in power President Obama’s approval is <45% nationally Even lower (sub 40%) in major Senate battlegrounds Republicans hold a polling edge on most major issues (economy, foreign policy) Democrats still hold an advantage on social issues Republicans are using the ACA website rollout and Ebola as responses to government mismanagement Following the administration’s response to ISIS, approval of Obama’s foreign policy is at an all-time low Republicans hold an 18- point edge on foreign policy issues Health CareForeign Policy Big-Picture Political Environment Will Shape Races 3

Most Senate Battlegrounds Voted for Romney 2012 Popular Election Results in Senate Battleground States Analysis Of the Democrat-held Senate battleground states, five are in states that Mitt Romney carried in 2012 Four of those five states were carried by double-digits (AK, AR, LA, SD) Obama won Romney won 2012 Presidential Elections Popular Vote Results Dem-held Senate seat Republican-held Senate seat Party Currently Holding Senate Seat 4 OH WV VA PA NY ME NC SC TN KY IN MI WI MN IL LA TX OK ID NV OR WA CA AZ NM CO WY MT ND SD IA UT FL AR MO MS AL NE KS VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD DC GA HI AK

Mark Pryor (D) Current Position: U.S. Senator Tom Cotton (R) Current Position: U.S. Rep, 4 th District Helping +Pryor name remains famous within the state; Pryor was unopposed in Pryor has been benefitted by appearances from former President Bill Clinton +One of the strongest GOP recruits, able to unite Tea Party and establishment bases +Strong background as Iraq War veteran in light of foreign policy crises Hurting Arkansas has grown extremely red since 2008 Considered most vulnerable Senate Democrat Only a freshman Congressman AR Arkansas Proof of Changing Political Landscape Analysis The Arkansas race shows how much the political landscape has changed since 2008: Pryor ran unopposed then, and is now the most vulnerable Democrat Factors Helping and Hurting 2014 Candidates

Mary Landrieu (D) Current Position: U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy (R) Current Position: U.S. Rep, 6 th District Helping One of most battle-tested Democratic Senators Energy Committee gavel will help fundraising, political positioning Pres. Obama’s approval remains low in Louisiana Election system means race could be determined by low- turnout Dec. runoff Hurting Needs more African American turnout than many Dem Senators Has to thread needle between exciting her base and winning enough moderate whites Generic (not very dynamic) Member of Congress Faces crowded GOP field to right If neither Landrieu nor Cassidy break 50% on election day, a runoff will determine the outcome— potentially with control of the Senate at stake LA Louisiana Likely to Head to Runoff Analysis Factors Helping and Hurting 2014 Candidates

North Carolina is Tale of Two Electorates Kay Hagan (D) Current Position: U.S. Senator Thom Tillis (R) Current Position: NC State Assembly Speaker Helping North Carolina changing demographically in the Ds favor Strong support from women voters Midterm electorate more conservative Comfortably prevailed in primary, with help from establishment groups Hurting Hagan missed ISIS hearings Groups that fueled Dem comeback in state (college students, African-Americans) don’t show up for midterms as much Tillis is leader of conservative and unpopular state legislature, attacked for state education budget The bellwether race of the year. North Carolina is changing demographically in Democrats’ favor, but the midterm electorate is more conservative. NC Analysis Factors Helping and Hurting 2014 Candidates +

Alaska is Quirky and Unpredictable Helping State’s unpredictability means Begich is most likely Senator to swing against national tide Hard for Ds to win state; Begich only beat scandal- plagued Ted Stevens by 1 point in 2008 Compelling nominee, former attorney general and military veteran Hurting Begich’s fundraising is down, possible sign of tepid support Pres. Obama remains unpopular in Alaska, so Begich has to walk a tough line Democrats have a larger ground operation in the state Alaska’s independent- minded streak means that Begich may be less vulnerable to national electoral trends Mark Begich (D) Current Position: U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan (R) Most Recent Position: Alaska Natural Resources Commissioner Analysis Factors Helping and Hurting 2014 Candidates AK

9 Three Likely GOP Pickups of Open Seats OH WV VA PA NY ME NC SC TN KY IN MI WI MN IL LA TX OK ID NV OR WA CA AZ NM CO WY MT ND SD IA UT FL AR MO MS AL NE KS VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD DC GA HI West Virginia Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) retiring State where Obama is least popular Features one of the strongest Republican recruits in Rep. Shelley Moore-Capito (R) 2012 Popular Election Results in Key Open Seats South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson (D) retiring State with few credible Democratic candidates Former Gov. Mike Rounds (R) the GOP nominee; race has two independent candidates on the ballot Montana Appointed Sen. John Walsh (D) dropped out of the race following plagiarism charges, was replaced by State Rep. Amanda Curtis (D) Republicans have strong candidate in Rep. Steve Daines (R) Obama won Romney won 2012 Presidential Elections Popular Vote Results Dem-held Senate seat Republican-held Senate seat Party Currently Holding Senate Seat

10 Three Battlegrounds in Democratic-Held Seats OH WV VA PA NY ME NC SC TN KY IN MI WI MN IL LA TX OK ID NV OR WA CA AZ NM CO WY MT ND SD IA UT FL AR MO MS AL NE KS VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD DC GA AK HI New Hampshire The race is closing fast; the state tends to bend with the national mood Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown is fighting a label as a carpetbagger The race has one of the highest gender gaps in the nation Brown is blowing up on hot-button news issues (ISIS, Ebola) and has been benefitted by large amounts of outside spending 2012 Popular Election Results in Democratic Open Seat Battlegrounds Obama won Romney won 2012 Presidential Elections Popular Vote Results Dem-held Senate seat Republican-held Senate seat Party Currently Holding Senate Seat Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley’s (D) “trial lawyer” gaffe costly; he has been considered the Dems’ worst candidate of the cycle State Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is a very credible challenger, conservative but charismatic AK Colorado Sen. Mark Udall (D) has focused heavily on social issues throughout the race Anger at Obama in the state has intensified heavily Rep. Cory Gardner (R) is considered the best recruit of the year for Republicans

Republicans Face Weaknesses on Conservative Turf In Kentucky, Poor Polling Threatens McConnell In Georgia, Black Turnout Could Tip Scales Towards Democrats Roberts has been hit from the center and right in the race; he had to move far to the right to survive a primary challenge from Tea Party candidate Milton Wolf (R), and now is struggling to move to the center in a general election The Democratic candidate in the race dropped out, leaving Roberts in a one- on-one matchup against self-financing venture capitalist Greg Orman (I) It is unclear whom Orman will caucus with if he wins the election McConnell has overcome nagging unpopularity, but is still unloved in his home state; this could lead to the possibility, albeit unlikely, that Republicans could win the Senate while McConnell loses Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) is benefiting from her intentionally vague stance on the issues, but has been weighed down by the unpopularity of Democratic stances on coal and healthcare in Kentucky; the DSCC has fluctuated in its spending commitment on her behalf 11 In Kansas, an Independent Candidate Has Changed the Race Dem weakness in GA: Typically low African-American turnout in midterms Democrats have highlighted Republican David Perdue’s record of outsourcing, using an anti-Romney playbook Michelle Nunn’s (D) path to victory depends on winning support from moderate whites and solid African- American turnout; the race is likely to go to a Jan. runoff

Historic Trend Suggests Dems Will Lose Seats Average Midterm Performance: Loss of 4 seats Analysis The average second-year midterm loss of presidents since World War II is six Senate seats This figure is inclusive of more popular presidents, and Obama’s numbers haven’t budged much, even with improving macroeconomic indicators A six-seat Senate loss among Democrats would therefore be consistent with the historic average in the current national political environment 12

Democratic Wildcard: Microtargeting Analysis The main asterisk: Democrats have proven they’re better at turning out voters than Republicans Montana and North Dakota are prime examples from 2012: Democrats effectively targeted moderate Romney voters to split tickets for Sens. Heitkamp (D-ND) and Tester (D-MT) DSCC is launching “Bannock Street Project” to microtarget winnable voters in some of the toughest territory This works better in smaller states where the pool of voters is smaller; turnout depends on persuasion Look to Arkansas, Iowa, and Alaska (Clinton voters from the ‘80s, caucusgoer dropoff) There’s a human capital gap between the parties, and it could make a difference in closer races 13

Possible gain of 5-10 seats Majority control In the House Odds are that the House will remain stable Possible Republican gain of 5-10 seats Possible gain of 6+ seats Majority control Overall Outlook Projected Party Composition Shifts 14 In the Senate Odds are roughly 75% for a Republican takeover of the Senate Republicans are likely to net 6 to 9 seats, and a wave is looking increasingly likely Many races will swing together, e.g. if Sen. Hagan (D-NC) loses, difficult to see Sen. Landrieu (D-LA) or Sen. Pryor (D-AR) winning If Republicans are able to win three of four toss-up races in IA, CO, NC and NH, it will be a big night for the GOP