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The Electoral Process Primaries and the General Election: Midterms in 2010

The Race in 2010 **And so our focus will be on the 2010 General Election (the “mid-terms”) that will be held on Nov. 2 nd of this year. Each and every year there is a general election in every state; Every even-numbered year election NOT involving a president is referred to as a “mid-term election”. In odd-numbered years these are state and “local” elections… Referred to as “off-year elections”

Step 1: Self-Nomination Congress House – about a year before for challengers Senate – 1- 2 years prior to General Election Governor – About a year prior to G.E State/Local offices – about a year or less prior to G.E. For offices below the presidency **All approximate; times depend on candidate/office and even the “mood” of the nation/ electorate

Step 2: Campaign to win party’s nomination For state/local offices In order to be a party’s official candidate, what must state/local candidates do? These primaries/caucuses are held at different times in the Spring before each November G.E.

State and Local Primaries Pennsylvania, like many other states, has a primary election every year… This year, the primary for PA was on May 18 th What is the purpose of a primary election? What offices besides were on the primary ballot this year? All US Reps, 1 US Senator, PA Governor, state Reps and some state Senators, and a multitude of “lower” offices as well.

Step 4: The General Election Campaign Once the primaries are over, and each party has its candidates, the General Election campaign will begin, and last from May/June until November. We’ll discuss more about the campaign later on…

Step 5: The General Election What is the rule for the date of a general election? When will our next general election be?

Why are people talking about the 2010 midterm elections? Typically, midterm elections result in losses for the president’s party…why? It seems that Republican, Independent and “Tea Party” voters are motivated this year, and for this reason Republicans may gain a significant # of seats in both the House and Senate Perhaps as many as 40 House seats, and perhaps as many as 10 Senate seats What will this mean for President Obama?

Party Control of Congress In the Senate, two independent senators caucus with the Democrats. This gave the Democrats a filibuster-proof majority of 60, from January 2009 until the death of Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy, and the victory of Republican Scott Brown in the election to replace him in January West Virginia Senator Robert Byrd died in June 2010, reducing the tally of Democratic senators to 56.

Is history a predictor? The president's party has lost House seats in all but two of the last 14 midterm elections. It tended to lose more seats when the president's September approval rating was less than 50%. Obama's approval rating is 46%. *For August before he resigned the presidency. Gerald Ford's approval rating in September of 1974 was 66%. SOURCE: Gallup Poll for data 1954 through 1978; 1982 through 2010 from Washington Post- ABC News poll.