Cambrian School District Measure L Post Campaign Summary

Introduction Measure L received 58.41% on November 2, 2010 Campaign: Volunteers: phone banks, precinct walks, endorsements Voter communication: direct mail, website, volunteers

Survey Data May 2010: 71% definitely or probably Yes, 2% leaning Yes Support varied by affiliation: 83% of Democrats 70% of Decline to State 61% of Republicans 79% of Parents Results presented June 2010—all Santa Clara County parcel taxes passed

Survey Data Negative Message Existing tax decreased support to 64% Other messages weakened support to 67% Argument against Two newspaper stories discussed existing tax measure

Campaign Strategy Campaign “turnout and persuade” Turnout Targets: Supportive in survey; likely voters Supporters of past Cambrian tax measures Parents Democrats Seniors Persuasion Targets Likely Republican voters Likely Decline to State voters

Voter Turnout and Identification Total # of Registered District Voters15,404 Total # of Votes cast for Measure L10,003 Overall voter turnout for Measure L64.9% Total # of ID’s (yes, no, undecided)4,194 Percent of registered voters ID’d by campaign27.2% Total # of ID’d Yes’s2,734 Percentage of Yes’s among ID’d voters65.2% Percentage of ID’d Yes’s who voted83.2% Percentage of parents who voted73.4% Percentage of Democrats who voted69.9%

Geography SartoretteBagbyFammatreFarnham Turnout68.3%69.4%70.5%66.6% SartoretteBagbyFammatreFarnham Yes59.1%61.7%60.5%52.8% No40.9%38.3%39.5%47.2%

Voter Turnout PartyDemocratRepublicanDTS/Other 46%31%23% EMC Poll Turnout Estimate PartyDemocratRepublicanDTS/Other 46.4%30.8%22.8% Election Day Actual Turnout

Historically Unfavorable Electoral Climate MeasureMeasure A Healthy Kids Measure E FHDACCD Measure I East Side Measure L Cambrian SD Poll % Yes67.0%71.0% 73.0% Yes58.76%58.0%57.37%58.41% No41.24%42.0%42.63%41.59%

Historically Unfavorable Electoral Climate Only 2 out of 18 school parcel tax measures passed in California (1 new $53; one renew) Contrast to June 2010: 6 out of 9 school parcel tax measures passed

National November 2010 Political Climate National – Struggling economy – Tea Party: anti-tax, anti-union, impacts to public agencies

State Politics 2010 Unprecedented budget deficit Meg Whitman 34.88% in Santa Clara County – Unprecedented campaign budget, targeted all voters, fiscal and education reform – Drove conversation to right Jerry Brown: no tax increase without vote, pension reform

Local November 2010 Political Climate District 9 City Council – Negative “Independent Expenditure” mailers – Walk pieces in Cambrian – “No new taxes” pledges Protracted pension fight in the City of San Jose Measures V and W Term limits Santa Clara Valley Water District 75% of the vote

Campaign Successes Campaign committee stayed on message Phone banks/walks were consistent, well attended 27% of the electorate was identified Complete and politically diverse list of endorsements Fundraising goals to send ample direct mail

Lessons Learned Strong campaign couldn’t overcome profound shift in voter opinion between June and November Smaller lower turnout election to avoid “noise” and target turnout

Cambrian School District Measure L Post Campaign Summary