Setting the Stage

Office Hours When – Today – Friday – Monday 10-2 Doyle 226B

Learning Outcomes Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process Discuss the Electoral College and the strategy of presidential campaigns

THE ELECTIONS OF 2010

Change Randy Marsh on – Change Change – Change Change

The Obama Dichotomy President Obama had a first term record of achievement not seen since LBJ. Each of these achievements produced positive and negative political consequences.

Health Care Reform Policy Success – The largest accomplishment of the administration Policy Problems – Spent Political Capital – Delayed Implementation

The Stimulus Package Success – Potentially Staved off a second depression Problems – High Price Tag – Did not meet expectations

Prediction vs Reality

War on Terror Successes in Iraq Problems in Afghanistan – More U.S. deaths in two years of Obama Administration than in 8 years of Bush Administration Support Remains Divided

Financial Reform Bill Success – The most sweeping bank reform since the Great Depression Problems – Critics on the Left say it didn’t Go Far Enough – Economy had not rebounded

President Obama’s Policy Disconnect Major Policies did not directly affect ordinary voters in a meaningful way Many Voters viewed these major policies as half- empty, not half-full

2010 What comes around, goes around?

The Election of2008 A continuation of House Seats 8 Senate Seats The Beginning of a realignment?

Homeostasis Government tends to disappoint We move back to correct parties that go too far

Factors in the Midterm Negative Voting The Current Political Climate Party Balancing

Angry Voters

Exposure in 2010 A Result of Coattails More Likely to appear in the House How Much

The First Sign of Republican Gains Scott Brown Wins in MA 3 Special Elections go for the GOP

By Election Day 101 Competitive Seats Unemployment is 9.8%

Party Objectives GOP- Take Back the House and Senate Democrats- keep at least 1 branch

For A Republican Takeover In the Senate 10 Seats needed in the Senate 9 gives you a tie and a job for Joe Biden In the House 39 Seats needed for control The average gain is 22

A Historical Perspective

Issues and 2010

Factor 1: Who isn’t there No BushNo Obama

The Most Important Issue of 2008 Obama misread the 2008 electorate The Most important issue of 2008 went unresolved

The Issues of 2010

The Nationalized Election National factors trumped local factors for the third time This time around, these factors favored the GOP This Hurts Incumbents

THE ECONOMY The Primary Issue

A Referendum on the Economy

Unemployment

Who is to Blame?

DEBT AND STIMULUS

The National Debt on Election Day 2008

The National Debt on 11/2/2010

Budget Deficits and Record Spending 2009 Budget Deficit was over 1.4 Trillion 2010 at 1.3 Trillion

Voters wanted deficit reduction

The Stimulus Package produced mixed electoral results

THE HEALTH CARE LAW

Opinion Remains Divided

A REFERENDUM ON PRESIDENT OBAMA The Man and His Policies

President Obama’s Popularity

On Election Day: A Referendum

On Election Day: The Policy Dichotomy

THE TEA PARTY The X factor in 2010

The Tea Party Movement Unique in that they do not want anything from government Also no Formal/ Hierarchical organization Very Motivated

The Tea Party was unified in its Anger at Government

The Tea party was a Popular Movement

With Motivated Voters on Election Day

THE HOUSE ELECTIONS

Historical Context The Republicans Have their best midterm election in 72 Years The Largest shift in ½ a century Dem losses were 3x the average

The Results GOP Gets – 100% of leaning GOP Seats (29) – 30 of 42 Tossups – 6 “safe/leaning” Democratic seats

The Tide Lifted all Boats First Tier Challengers won Second and Third Tier as Well

Tea Party Candidates in the House Again A Mixed Bag – 84 Losers – 46 Winners

The GOP came back to some Regions Gained seats in all regions Best GOP Gains in the South and Midwest The Democrats did best in the west

Which Democrats Lost? The Class of 2008 The Class of 2006 The Wave Receded

A Bad Year for Incumbents and Blue Dogs Worst Year for Incumbents in 3 Decades The Blue Dogs are cut in half.

THE SENATE

The Senate of 2008 Started With 58 Got Up to 60 Went Down To 59

What Was at Stake Republicans Needed Seats up for Grabs Not Much help from the 2004 wave

The Results No Decapitation of Reid No Biden Seat The Democrats Hold

Tea Party Candidates in the Senate A Mixed Bag Winners- FL, KY, UT, WI Losers-, DE, CO, NV

STRUCTURE, TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP Why the GOP Won

Structural Factors Timing Availability

Turnout Very Similar to 2006 A Smaller Electorate than 2008

Low Motivation from The Left Every Democratic Group claimed responsibility for President Obama’s Victory Supporters wanted immediate policy change on their issue Card Check Don’t Ask Don’t Tell Public Option A Larger Stimulus Bill Immigration Reform Bringing the Troops Home

Who Voted GOP was more energized More conservative Older Whiter

Race and Age

Gender and Region

Partisanship and Ideology

The Elections of 2010 Set the Stage for the next two years