TABLE-TOP EXERCISE: INDIAN OCEAN SCENARIO MAKRAN SOURCE Shallow, Offshore, Mw9.0 Training Programme in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia,

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Presentation transcript:

TABLE-TOP EXERCISE: INDIAN OCEAN SCENARIO MAKRAN SOURCE Shallow, Offshore, Mw9.0 Training Programme in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, August, 2006 Male, Maldives, August, 2006 Colombo, Sri Lanka, 30 August 2006

TWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES SEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSESSEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSES SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS & ANALYSESSEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS & ANALYSES DECISION-MAKING PROCESSESDECISION-MAKING PROCESSES MESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATIONMESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATION

CHECKLIST Indian Ocean Events - Initial Bulletin EQ SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION Locate Epicenter (Tele-EQ, Pick, nquake) O Make/Examine Location Map (nquake) O Determine Depth (nquake) O Determine Magnitude (Mwp) O Issue Observatory Message O Start Mm ( Papeete if Mw>7), SMAG, Theta O Select Message Type based on Criteria O Call in Other Watchstanders to Help (Watches) O Compute/Print/[Map] ETAs if a Warning or TIB O

CHECKLIST - Indian Ocean Events - Initial Bulletin EQ SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION Locate Epicenter (Tele-EQ, Pick, nquake) O Make/Examine Location Map (nquake) O Determine Depth (nquake) O Determine Magnitude (Mwp) O Issue Observatory Message O Start Mm ( Papeete if Mw>7), SMAG, Theta O Select Message Type based on Criteria O Call in Other Watchstanders to Help (Watches) O Compute/Print/[Map] ETAs if a Warning or TIB O

Checklist - Indian Ocean Events ISSUE MESSAGE Run Message Software (for Indian Ocean)O Check Message before Sending: Bulletin Number (should be 1) O Message Type O Which Places Put in Watch Status O Add Statement for Anything Unusual O Earthquake Parameters O Estimated Arrival Times O

Checklist - Indian Ocean Events ENSURE MESSAGE DISSEMINATION Check all Messages Went Out Resend if Necessary GTS (lp –d nmc nmcmsg [hnmcmsg])O Fax/Telex (lp –d tlx tlxmsg)O NWW (lp –d nww nwwmsg [hnwwmsg])O Web (/bin/ftp2webpac and /bin/ftp2webhaw) O (cat wmsg | /bin/mailx bulletin )O EMWIN (call NWSTG if NMC okay)O HFO Fax (/bin/fax2hfo now)O Immediate Call Down List O

Checklist - Indian Ocean Events CONTINUE FOR WATCHES, TIB w/Tsunami potential Call Closest Countries Confirm they got our message O Ask if they have any reports O Display and Monitor Nearest Sea Level Gauges O Trigger DARTS at least 30-min ahead of their ETAs O Review Historical Data O Re-assess Magnitude Monitor Mm, SMAG O Check for Tsunami or Slow Earthquake (Mw vs Ms, Theta) O Monitor for other EQ params and CMTs O

Mw less than 6.5 (Mw: Moment Magnitude) Observatory Message Only Mw 6.5 to 7.0Tsunami Information Bulletin Mw 7.1 to 7.5Local Tsunami Watch Mw 7.6 to 7.8Regional Tsunami Watch Mw > 7.8Ocean-Wide Tsunami Watch INDIAN OCEAN BULLETIN CRITERIA

Makran Accretionary margin, location of 1945 Tsunami in this region Island Arc Volcanics Mud Volcanoes 1945 A Mohktari et al., 2005

SCENARIO TIMELINE 0:00Mw 9 Earthquake Occurs 0:10PTWC Seismic Alarms Triggered 0:14 PTWC Initial Location/Magnitude Mw 8.1 Mw 8.1 0:15PTWC Observatory Message 0:17 PTWC Basin-Wide Tsunami Watch 1 0:18 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 1

Broadband Seismic Stations contributing data to PTWC P-wave TT 8 min

SCENARIO TIMELINE 1:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 2 Mw 8.9 revised Mw 8.9 revised 1:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 2 2:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 3 2:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 3 Masirah SL gauge has not arrived Masirah SL gauge has not arrived (eta 2:23) - TWC may wait to issue (eta 2:23) - TWC may wait to issue

Station Xmit Arrival Transmit Masirah 15 01:23:29 01:27:00 Salalah 15 02:28:17 02:40:00 Hanimaadhoo 60 03:36:28 04:01:00 Male 15 04:12:04 04:15:00 Gan 60 04:23:18 05:01:00 Colombo 15 04:45:36 04:54:00 Pt.LaRue 60 05:33:36 05:41:00 Lamu 30 05:59:00 06:03:00 Zanzibar 15 06:47:03 06:49:00 Rodrigue 15 08:09:43 07:13:00 Port Luis 15 08:23:45 07:31:00 Calculated Tsunami Arrival Times

Near-shore shallow bathymetry increases travel timeMasirah MaleGan

SCENARIO TIMELINE 3:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 4 Salalah Sea level gauge (eta 3:26) Salalah Sea level gauge (eta 3:26) 3:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 4 4:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 5 Reading at Hanimaahdoo (eta 3:26) Reading at Hanimaahdoo (eta 3:26) Male Sea level gauge (eta 4:12) Male Sea level gauge (eta 4:12) 4:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 5 with Updated Amplitude Forecasts with Updated Amplitude Forecasts Gan (eta 4:23, but transmit 5:01 Gan (eta 4:23, but transmit 5:01 since 60 min transmit rate) since 60 min transmit rate)

Station Xmit Arrival Transmit Masirah 15 01:23:29 01:27:00 Salalah 15 02:28:17 02:40:00 Hanimaadhoo 60 03:36:28 04:01:00 Male 15 04:12:04 04:15:00 Gan 60 04:23:18 05:01:00 Colombo 15 04:45:36 04:54:00 Pt.LaRue 60 05:33:36 05:41:00 Lamu 30 05:59:00 06:03:00 Zanzibar 15 06:47:03 06:49:00 Rodrigue 15 08:09:43 07:13:00 Port Luis 15 08:23:45 07:31:00 Calculated Tsunami Arrival Times

SCENARIO TIMELINE 5:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 6 5:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 6 Sea Level Readings - Maldives Diego Garcia Diego Garcia6:19-10:00 Addtl Sea Level Readings fr IO Stations Hourly Bulletins from PTWC / JMA Hourly Bulletins from PTWC / JMA For Interim IOTWS System: For Interim IOTWS System: Basin-wide Watch => Basin-wide Watch => Monitor sea levels across entire IO Monitor sea levels across entire IO No Warnings issued (so No Cancellation) No Warnings issued (so No Cancellation)

Makran Source Modeling Tsunami Propagation

THANK YOU