UCAR Members Meeting October 2005 Tim Killeen, Director National Center for Atmospheric Research

NCAR Strategic Planning 2001 Plan: NCAR as an Integrator –Goals –Progress and Recent Highlights 2006 Plan: NCAR as an Integrator, Innovator, and Community Builder –Purpose and Context –Development Process –Goals –Next Steps –Discussion

NCAR 2001 Strategic Plan: NCAR as an Integrator Extensive re-examination of NCAR activities and objectives for: –Service –Science –Education Resulted in significant modification of programs and structure

NCAR will provide leadership in: Addressing complex, large-scale, important science problems in collaboration with university partners. Building and deploying enabling cyberinfrastructure and observing facilities. Further defining both the Community Model concept and process science. Building community, capacity, and diversity, and supporting technology transfer: public, K-12, students, postdocs, faculty, teams. Challenges and Opportunities in 2001 Plan

Partnerships and collaborations Support for early-career scientists, career enhancement, leadership programs, fellowships Community User Facilities, including a new airplane (HIAPER), Supercomputing, Climate and Weather Community Models (CCSM, WRF) Creation of budgetary and programmatic flexibility Programmatic innovation: Strategic initiatives, Opportunity funds Nested strategic plans, Reorganization Resulting in Institutional Priorities

–Biogeosciences –Water cycle –Climate impacts assessment –Coronal magnetism –Data assimilation –Community data portals –Geographic information systems –Whole atmosphere modeling –Education and outreach –Visitor and University interactions and programs Strategic initiatives defined, funded, and developed into important new areas in NCAR’s base program. Our Progress

The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) a leading climate system model Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model is deployed as one of the national operational weather models The Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), developed and maintained by NCAR and its partners, is becoming a national standard for environmental modeling A first generation Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) First quantitative measurements of solar coronal vector magnetic fields Education and outreach elevated within NCAR Our Progress

Scientific staff –Addition of 35 early career scientists –Establishment of Early Career Scientist Assembly –NCAR Scientist Assembly (NSA) Advisor on NCAR Executive Committee –Post tenure review of 1/5 th of Scientists III and Senior Scientists each year –Leadership and communications training –Formal mentoring programs Our Progress

Our Leadership Team NCAR Executive Committee and Lab Associate Directors –Meets bi-weekly on the strategic management of NCAR CISL – Al Kellie EOL – Roger Wakimoto ESSL – Annick Pouquet, Acting; Guy Brasseur, arrives in January RAL – Brant Foote SERE – Diana Josephson Directors –Meets monthly, scientific/facilities updates ISSE Director, Linda Mearns EOL Assistant Director, Karyn Sawyer ASP Director, Maura Hagan MMM Director, Greg Holland CGD Director, Jim Hurrell IMAGe Director, Doug Nychka TIIMES Director, Rit Carbone CCB Director, Mickey Glantz ACD - Danny McKenna stepping down in January (Brian Ridley, interim)

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 11 Institution Rankings in the Geosciences Sorted by Citations – January 2005 Data courtesy of ISI Essential Science Indicators™ – Powered by ISI Web of Knowledge™ RANKINGINSTITUTIONCITATIONS 1NASA85,538 2NOAA69,513 3NCAR52,117 4US Geological Survey46,003 5University of Colorado45,561 6University of Washington44,939 7Max Planck Society39,809 8CALTECH39,542 9Columbia University39, University of California, San Diego 32,663

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 12 9/1/05

Tenure-track Staff Moves between NCAR and Universities/Labs 2000 – /1/05

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 14 Undergraduate Leadership Workshop – 4 th Year 21 students who have completed Junior year in college One week at NCAR Purpose: To inform undergraduates in the geosciences about opportunities for graduate study, research, and careers in the atmospheric and related sciences.

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 15 NCAR Faculty Fellows 2005 Inaugural Year –Weiging Han – University of Colorado, Boulder –Lian-Ping Wang – University of Delaware (came with two graduate students) –Arne Winguth – University of Wisconsin

Average visit ~22 min long, ~8 pages ~25% of traffic to Spanish website

State-of-the-art chemistry laboratory Access Grids Office and meeting space Our Progress – Investment in Science

One of 16 Blue Vista frames Computing power that allows jobs to run twice as fast (NCAR now serves >15Teraflop peak to the community) NSF’s HIAPER--built and outfitted to allow unprecedented field research Our Progress – Investment in Science

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 19 HIAPER - On time and under budget

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 20 NSF HIAPER Aircraft Instrumentation Solicitation (HAIS) Awards Principal Investigator (PI)DevelopmentAvailable M. Zondlo (Southwest Sciences)Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Laser (VCSEL) HygrometerMar A. Heymsfield (UCAR/NCAR)Small Ice Detector (SID) ProbesAug R. Shetter (UCAR/NCAR)HIAPER Atmospheric Radiation Package (HARP)Sept S. Wofsy (Harvard)Quantum Cascade Laser Spectrometer for HIAPERNov E. Atlas (Univ. of Miami)HIAPER Advanced Whole Air Sampler (AWAS)Dec T. Rawlins (PSI Inc.)Autonomous Airborne Ozone Photometer for HIAPERJan G. Huey (Georgia Tech.)Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer (CIMS)Apr T. Campos (UCAR/NCAR)Fast Ozone InstrumentNov P. Lawson (SPEC Inc.)2D-S (Stereo) and Cloud Particle Imager (CPI) ProbeDec E. Eloranta (Univ. of Wisconsin)High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL)Dec J. Garrison (Purdue)GPS Multistatic and Occultation Instrument for HIAPERJan M.J. Mahoney (JPL/Caltech)Microwave Temperature Profiler (MTP)Sep E. Apel (UCAR/NCAR)Trace Organic Gas Analyzer (TOGA)Feb J. Jimenez (Univ. of Colorado)Time of Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (ToF-AMS)Feb. 2009

Recent Highlights RAINEX – One of larges hurricane studies ever undertaken. NSF sponsored aircraft investigation of interactions between hurricane outer rainbands and inner eye and their influence on storm’s intensity. University of Miami University of Washington National Center for Atmospheric Research NOAA NESDIS NOAA Aircraft Operations Center NOAA National Hurricane Center Naval Research Laboratory UCAR Joint Office for Science Support

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)  NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM-3).  Open Source  8-member ensembles  11,000 model years simulated  T85, 100 Terabytes Meehl et al.,

GIS Climate Change Scenarios Data visualization and exploration in ArcGlobe 100 year ( ) change in mean July surface temperature

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 24 WRF4 km Moving-Grid Katrina Wind Forecast Initialized 27 Aug Z Wind Speed (m/s) Cat 1: Cat 2: Cat 3: Cat 4: Cat 5: >69

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 25 GIS Applications of Hurricane Katrina Landfall (collaboration with Los Alamos National Lab) Electric Transmission Lines & Power Plants Natural Gas Pipelines, Processing Plants & Compressors

“Seamless” Weather and Climate Experiment ESSL (CGD, MMM), CISL

MIRAGE - Megacities Impact on Regional and Global Environment- Mexico City 1-29 March 2006 Goal: Characterize the extent, persistence, and potential impacts of the pollution plume on surrounding areas. Over 60 other participating institutions including 38 universities. Will provide significant opportunities for international collaboration and hands-on training of students. Mexico City Pollution

Predicting the onset of solar cycle Next cycle will start late in 2007 or early in 2008 (Dikpati et al., 2004, ESA-SP 559, p233) 23

Consider... BASC Interim Report The “Blue Book” (“UCAR”, 1959), which together mapped out the complementary roles of a large national center and the individual investigator university grants program, has served the atmospheric science community well and is the envy of many other scientific communities. Report recommendation: –Encourage new modes of partnership between the university and private sector research community and NCAR.

Planning for our Future External environment: Funding constraints Unmet community needs Agencies, universities and society asking new things of us International leadership needed Competition for management of NCAR Internal environment: Progress made on our goals & objectives Reorganization allows different capacity New leadership, new ideas Resource/infrastructure constraints Time to revisit priorities

Updating our Strategic Plan: Update goals and priorities in light of progress and new opportunities Reconfirm our commitment to science Reconfirm our commitment to service Articulate our unique strengths Demonstrate our role as a community facilitator To use as: –Basis for Laboratory implementation plans –Roadmap for NCAR decisions –Outreach tool –Guidance for community collaborators –Document for competition of management of NCAR

Our Approach: A Nested Hierarchy of Plans LaboratoriesDivisions/Institutes Alignment

MISSION VISION STRATEGY/GOALS PRIORITIES IMPLEMENTATION BUDGETS Alignment CREATING THE PLAN Environmental Scan SWOT Analysis Leadership Direction Staff Brainstorming Community Input Writing Team Stakeholder Review Final Product NCAR STRATEGIC PLANNING

NCAR 2006 Strategic Planning Process Timeline MAYJUNEJULYAUGSEPTOCT NCAR Exec Comm Retreats NCAR Directors NSA Community Writing Team Kick off at NSA & All Staff Town Meetings Reviews – BOT, NSF,URC, Adv Council, Mgmt, Others Develop Goals & Objectives 1 st DraftInput/Feedback2 nd Draft to BOTBOT Feedback Editing/ Revisions Plan the Plan NOVDECJAN Final Plan to NSF 6/13-14 NCAR Director’s Retreat Solicited via personal contact, meetings, web Mid- Sept- Draft Plan to BOT 2006 Strategic Plan to NSF Publication

NCAR Strategic Planning Retreat July 25 – 29, Boulder NCAR as a NSF FFRDC - Jarvis Moyers The Changing Landscape in Atmospheric Sciences and Possible New Roles for a National Center - Kelvin Droegemeier Perspectives on Future Directions for Science at NSF and DOE - Warren Washington NCAR and UCAR’s Role in Contributing to National and Global Priorities - Rick Anthes Community Perspective on the Role of the National Center - John Merrill Earth and Sun Systems - Jim Hansen Observational Facilities - Steve Rutledge Cyberinfrastructure - Sepi Yalda Science and Society: Technology, Observation, Decision Support Systems - Gene Tackle Education - Orlando Taylor

NCAR Advisory Committees – 194 Members Representing 134 organizations Effective August 2005 with changes expected

Community & Staff Participation

Updating the NCAR Strategic Plan High Level Outline 1.0 Executive Summary 2.0 Introduction 3.0 Vision 4.0 The NCAR-University Partnership 5.0 Context of Our Work 6.0. Strategic Goals and Priorities 7.0 Program Planning and Implementation 8.0 Organization and Structure 9.0 Commitment to Organizational Excellence and Innovation 10.0 Appendices

Strategic GoalsOverarching Goals ScienceInvestigate, predict and explain the Earth-Sun system Transferring Knowledge and Technology Develop new societal benefits from atmospheric and related sciences Workforce, Education and Outreach Transform the workforce, improve scientific education & increase scientific understanding Cyber- infrastructure Develop and provide a robust, accessible and well integrated set of information services and tools to support research, analysis and education in the atmospheric and related sciences Observing Systems Develop, operate and maintain a new suite of ground and airborne observational facilities for the atmospheric and related sciences community 2006 Strategic Plan - Draft

Some Content of the new NCAR Strategic Plan Big Issues and Opportunities (not exhaustive) Supercomputing: next generation capabilities Regional-scale analysis of climate and weather HIAPER Phase 2 and Thorpex An NCAR Diversity Initiative Solar and Space Weather facility-class observations Remote sensing and weather/climate services New collaborations with hydrology community

Summary of Next Steps BOT review and input Final input from staff and community NCAR Executive Committee approval Final BOT approval 2006 Strategic Plan to NSF in January Linking of NCAR, Laboratory and Division/Institute plans with NSF, UCAR and UOP

Thank you