The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) Bruce Carmichael Forecasting Team Co-lead Weather IPT

What We Face 60-80% of traffic delays have a weather connection If traffic counts grow anywhere near projections (JPDO NGATS), ability of current system to accommodate growth is essentially impossible System breakdown unavoidable unless capacity grows by 2 to 3 times Caveat: we must plan for a future still full of unknowns, never-the-less (airline difficulties, terrorism, natural calamity, etc.) The system must have much more capacity and be safe

NGATS ORGANIZATIONS Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Homeland Security Office of Science and Technology Planning The NGATS Institute

2025 NGATS Concept Net-Enabled Information Access Performance-Based Services Weather-Assimilated Decision Making Layered, Adaptive Security Broad-Area Precision Navigation Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations “Equivalent Visual” Operations “Super Density” Operations Key Capabilities Operating Principles “It’s about the users…” System-wide transformation Prognostic approach to safety assessment Globally harmonized Environmentally compatible to foster continued growth

Policy Change/Creation Organizational Innovation Culture Acceptance System-Wide Transformation Innovation Across All Lines of Development Technology Innovation Policy Culture Organization Technology Culture Organization Policy Technology

Net-Enabled Information Access Global secure access, information handled according to “communities of interest” “Shared Situation Awareness”  Real-time free-flow of info from private, commercial, & government sources, integrated internationally  Tailored, responsive and secure  Push/pull processes  Common awareness of day-to-day ops, events, crises Aircraft are integral “nodes” in network Integrated cooperative air traffic and non-cooperative national security surveillance

Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations Adjust airspace configuration to meet user needs 4D trajectories (including taxi and roll-out) are basis for planning and execution Machine-based trajectory analysis and separation assurance Includes environmental performance throughout all phases of aircraft operations Airspace configuration driven by: DoD/DHS requirements, domestic & international user needs, requirements for special-use airspace, safety, environment, overall efficiency Airspace reconfigurable during day of operations Users “contract” for airspace access and service

Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations: Management-by-Trajectory Projected Profiles Planned Profiles Weather, Aggregate Flow, Airport Configuration/Infrastructure Agreement User Requested Profile Clearance Separation Mgmt DomainTactical DomainStrategic Domain Airspace Organization and Management Airport Operations Demand & Environmental Performance Balancing ATM Service Delivery Management Key Issues are functional allocation between:  Automation and humans  Aircraft operators and service provider Information Management Airspace User Operations Conformance Monitoring

Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations: “Evaluator” Integrates/communicates weather, security, defense, environmental, safety, international considerations, other information Users “post”/update desired 4D trajectories in common system that continuously evaluates mutual compatibility Predicts potential “over demand” situations, in multiple “capacity dimensions”—traffic density, environmental, security, etc. Works across all time horizons from days/weeks/months prior to flight up to separation management (20 minutes or less) Supports distributed decision-making environment where players have clear, agreed-upon roles and interactions

Equivalent Visual Operations Increasing capacity from today’s non-visual conditions Aircraft perform "equivalent visual" operations in non-visual conditions (achieve “VFR capacity” under these conditions) ATM provider delegates “maintain separation” responsibility to aircraft operators  Requires timely, high fidelity information on nearby aircraft, weather, etc System-wide availability at all air portals  With appropriately capable “landside” (including security) Greater predictability of operations at busy airports, including ground operations

Weather Assimilated into Decisions Common weather picture across NGATS Fuse global weather observations and forecasts into single information system, dynamically update as needed  Tens of 1000’s of sensors (airborne & ground) feed 100’s of forecast models Learning automation accounts for weather and its uncertainties in managing aircraft trajectories Identify hazardous weather real-time Assimilated into NGATS “decision loops”  Total integration via machine-to-machine  Critical decision system time scales using both probabilistic and deterministic weather info  Optimized to maximize available weather- favorable airspace  Terminal weather impacts including ground/ramp ops and adaptability due to wind shift changes

2025 NGATS Vision The number and complexity of NGATS command and control decisions at any given moment will require the total system to be largely automated This requires weather information to be passed digitally, rather than as text or graphic products The “system” will use smart pull technology to obtain required weather information for any given decision Traditional aviation weather products will be reduced or outright eliminated (e.g., Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts, Area Forecasts…) As needed presentation of three-dimensional weather information, projected into the future, will allow the National Airspace System’s operational systems to make weather-savvy decisions

Weather in the Future Common weather picture – A “data cube” will ensure NGATS users share consistent information It’s not about looking at a lot of sensor data, its about providing an accurate diagnosis and forecast of phenomena that are important to aviation Weather information fully integrated into all ground- and cockpit-based decision support systems/tools –4DT based on current and forecast weather –Real time weather updates posted and pushed to all impacted subscribers Probabilistic forecasts enable prognostic, risk-based decisions on allowing aircraft to tactically traverse certain weather phenomena –Enables capacity management –Opens more airspace to the system DST algorithms are owned by the operators not weather. Weather is just one input to the algorithm

NGATS/JPDO Aviation Weather IPT Observations (improved suite) Forecasts (new science, automation, probability) Dissemination (4D Weather Information System) Integration (critical joining of weather with ATM) Aircraft Mitigation (harden aircraft for weather) Training (“just-in-time”) Policy Systems Engineering

Emphasis and Priorities:4–D Weather -- Official Product of the Future Convection Turbulence Icing Snowfall Ceiling Visibility Radiation from Space Wind Speed Wind Direction Temperature Humidity Noise Propagation Potential Airport Plume Concentration Atmospheric Sensitivity to Exhaust Volcanic Ash Concentration Wake/Vortex Dissipation Potential Z X Y X X : Probability Distribution Function of Magnitude

Production of aviation weather products – the JPDO vision Automated Intelligent Forecast Systems 4-D Global Database Automated Decision Support Systems Custom Graphics Generators Custom Alphanumeric Generators Statistical Systems NWP Models Observations Human Forecaster Input This plan includes many factors in strategic and tactical airspace management, such as: Aircraft separation Hazardous weather separation Time en route Fuel burn Noise impact Environmental impact Constantly Refreshed

Ground-Ground Air-Air Aviation Weather Dissemination, 2025 Foundation for Net-Enabled Weather Operations A-G/A-A I/F Community of Interest Community of Interest community of Interest Community of Interest Training Airports Ground/Space Based Observations Evaluator and DSS Wx Processed into ATM Decisions With Drill Down Available Displays AOC Displays Controllers Displays Forecasting Multi-sensor QA’ed Obs Assimilated Obs Forecast, Nowcast, Diagnosis AIR-Ground Authoritative Wx Pulled and Pushed Aircraft Wx Obs And Wx requests Aircraft Networks and Wx Sensors/Displays A/C pulled and pushed Wx A-G/A-A I/F Urgent Wx Requested Obs Obs to push and Pull customers Net-Centric Enterprise Services and Network Shared Services Rides on Net Enabled Information System

Plan to support to broad range of possible NGATS “futures” –Actual evolution to target curb-to-curb concept likely will consider multiple alternate paths –Develop systems to support those alternatives –Transition from today’s system to future system Provide information that support common situational awareness –Intelligent fusion of data, models, and predictors into a single authoritative data base –Common understanding of the definitions and limitations of the information elements Enable integration of weather information into DSS –Develop reliable probabilistic information –Develop generic information products that can be customized to meet the needs of service provider and customer systems –Develop new products jointly with DSS community Summary