“Put Some Science in Your Game with Leading and Trailing Indicators” Safety Performance Metrics Tom Lott Senior Vice President Wachovia Insurance Services Charlotte, NC

Leading and Trailing Indicators – Just Another “Passing Concept”?  Concept – Long History in Financial Markets  Risk Management Industry Not a new Concept, but for the industry, far from recognized and utilized to it’s potential Many have used approaches to some extent or another  What are We Advocating? The use of Risk Management Leading Indicators as a Sound and Scientific Way to measure and drive risk management improvements

Definitions  Leading Indicator – An indicator whose value changes prior to a change in the larger system of which it is a component  Trailing (Lagging) Indicator - An economic or other indicator that changes value after the underlying conditions it measures have begun to exhibit a trend. Trailing indicators may confirm the existence of a condition or trend, but are not the most effective means for prediction.

Engineering & Process Design Training Loss Prevention Practices Corporate Culture and Commitment People Incident Response & Claims Management Catastrophic Losses Losses Incidents & Near Misses LEADING INDICATORS TRAILINGINDICATORS “UPSTREAM”“DOWNSTREAM” The “Fishbone” Theory

What Do Leading & Trailing Indicators look Like in Action? Leading and Trailing Indicators 1Q20062Q20063Q20064Q20061Q2007 Avg RMQ Score Total Cost of Risk / $1 Revenue $0.05 $0.04$0.035$0.03 Correlation Top Level Report Links Leading Indicators with Trailing Indicators – Safety to Financial

What Do RM Leading Indicators look Like?

What Do RM Leading & Trailing Indicators look Like? CategoryStage 1 Significant Development issues Stage 2 Concerns & Opportunities Stage 3 Average Performance Stage 4 Striving For Excellence Stage 5 Excellence Measuring Employee Safety Performance Safety goals and/or performance is not considered in the performance evaluations There may be a section for safety performance, but it is not used pro- actively or consistently. It is having minimal influence on behavior and performance Safety is considered in the appraisal through a specific area. There is generally feedback given. Safety is measured through specific performance criteria. This area is given adequate weight in the overall performance and reward system. There is evidence of corrective action when performance is low. There is an excellent program in place (Stage 4) and the program has been up and running for a year or more with strong results. Employees fully understand that safety is a critical area of job performance evaluation. SAMPLE OF QUALITATIVE JUDGEMENT

What Do RM Leading Indicators look Like? 3 Dimensions Technical Cultural Financial

What Do RM Leading & Trailing Indicators look Like? Quantitative Leading Indicators Employee Turnover Rate Job Satisfaction Rating Inspection Compliance Score Driver Training Test Scores MVR Quality Vehicle Inspection Results PPO Utilization Qualitative Based Leading Indicators Quality of Hiring Process Quality of Employee performance Reviews Quality of Safety Accountability Program Quality of RTW Program Quality of Process Review Program Quality of Ergonomics

What Do RM Leading & Trailing Indicators look Like? Trailing Indicators Defect Rate Reported Incidents Reported Accidents Number of claims Lost Workday Rate $ Losses / Employee $ Losses per payroll $ Losses per product Avg Cost per Employee Avg Cost Per Vehicle * Note – Many of these indicators could serve as both leading or trailing indicators, based on approach

Two Basic Types of Approaches depending on what you are trying to Improve:  Focused – Focus on a specific loss or exposure area (Slips/Falls)  Organizational – Broad application of loss and/or exposure areas Getting Started

Building Your Approach Key Selection Criteria Correlate Leading and Trailing Indicators “Peel Back” from Loss and Exposure Analysis, Accident Investigations, etc. Thorough Analysis To Select Best Leading Indicators that will drive positive change (Management Levers) Make this a group effort. People will own the issues and actions. Continue on a Regular basis Be Comprehensive in Approach (Training w/out enforcement won’t work) Warning: Watch what you Measure (ex. # good performance reviews per manager) DRIVE ACCOUNTABILITY and CHAREBACK WITH LEADING INDICATORS Continuously test, review and Adjust Indicators based on Results.

What Do RM Leading & Trailing Indicators look Like? - Examples Slip Fall Program – Restaurant Chain Engineering –Floor Design –Floor Condition –Signs & Warning –Maintenance and Cleaning Employees – Training – Accountability –Shoe Program Post Incident –Investigation –Claims Management

Be the Facilitator Get Good Cross Section of Organization Power of the Employee Interviews Managing Expectations Using the Guidelines to Determine Next Steps Importance of the Assessments

Get Group Focused on Outcomes Build into Management Accountability Use in Chargeback Systems Correlate to Overall Results Using the Results

Summary of Key Concepts Focus on Risk Management Quality Leading Indicators (Culture, Engineering, Training, etc.) to Drive Down Trailing Indicators (Incidents, losses, etc.) Choose Leading Indicators Carefully Thorough Causal Analysis of Past losses and Potential Exposures Choose indicators that will drive positive behaviors and improvements Make sure they correlate to the trailing indicators Be comprehensive in approach (training w/out accountability is worthless) Be Practical Must choose approach that fits with culture and needs of organization Measure the “Big ticket” items – The ones that will cause the most change in trailing indicators. Be outcome focused. (Change Employee Perception)

Questions & Answers For more information, contact: Tom Lott Senior Vice President National Practices Leader Wachovia Insurance Services Charlotte, NC