Catch to Consumption Chris Barrett and Teevrat Garg, Cornell University Sept. 4, 2014, Harvard University Center for the Environment

Outline  Adapt an existing model that couples exogenous climate drivers, wildlife population dynamics and endogenous human food consumption and resource use behaviors [Barrett & Arcese, 1998]  Use own-, cross-price and income elasticity of demand estimates and budget shares from existing literature and secondary dietary data to estimate shocks to fish stock on consumption, labor effort, etc.  Simulate on a global scale to identify places most vulnerable to major food consumption shifts – and malnutrition – in response to shocks to fish stocks … or other shocks (e.g., crop productivity, prices, jobs)

Barrett & Arcese (1998 LE)  Dynamic model of farmer effort allocation coupled to wildlife population dynamics and exogenous weather shocks  Endogenous, time-varying demand for game meat, farm foods, non-food goods, and leisure, labor allocation between poaching and farming  Simulate w/ and w/o trade  Simulate time to crisis  Adapt to fisheries and global scale for spatiotemporally specific behavioral and nutrient intake response

Elasticity Estimates  Elasticity = % change in outcome variable in response to 1% change in independent variable  How will prices react to a production shock?  How will incomes respond to a production shock?  How will households respond to price and income changes?  Change in consumption of good experiencing supply shock?  Indirect income/cross-price effects on other goods?  What behavioral responses might feed back on supporting resource base and subsequent periods’ food supplies?