MIMES Dynamic Input Output Framework for a full accounting matrix

The “Input Output” Table Economic sector’s “Use” needs for economic sector’s “Make” services (Published yearly by the Bureau of Economic Analyses - BEA) AgricultureFisheriesMiningManufacturingHouseholds Agriculture Fisheries Mining Manufacturing Households Economic Sectors (NAICS or ISIC) Economic Services (NAPCS)

Economic sector “Use” Ecosystem “Use” Economic Sector “Make” Macro EconomicsEcosystem Impacts Ecosystem “Make” Final Ecosystem ServicesEcosystem Processes Accounting Framework For Modeling Ecosystem Services The “make” and “use” of disservices

Economic sector “Use” Ecosystem “Use” Economic Sector “Make” Macro EconomicsEcosystem Impacts Ecosystem “Make” Final Ecosystem ServicesEcosystem Processes Accounting Framework For Modeling Ecosystem Services The “make” and “use” of disservices

Economic sector “Use” Ecosystem “Use” Economic Sector “Make” Macro EconomicsEcosystem Impacts Ecosystem “Make” Final Ecosystem ServicesEcosystem Processes Accounting Framework For Modeling Ecosystem Services The “make” and “use” of disservices

The “Make Table” Ecosystems supplies ecosystem services (Parameters are derived from simulations of physical processes in time and space) Water regulation Bio regulation Climate regulation Disturbance regulation Food production Open Water Water Storage Capacity Fish to consume mosquito larva Cooling Swimming Prevented Flooding Fish Developed Drainage through pipes Indoors Conditions Air conditioners Dikes Wetland Water retention Temperature buffer Prevented Flooding Fish and game Forest Water retention Prevented Lime disease ShadePrevented damage Ecosystem Services (ESCS; supply) Ecosystems (LandUse Classifications)

Air filtration by near-road vegetation Pest regulation by native biodiversity Temperature modulation by urban vegetation Water purification by natural land covers “Make Dynamics” currently under development within EPA

The “Use Table” Ecosystem services demand of economic sectors AgricultureFisheriesManufacturingHouseholds Air FiltrationBetter air quality Bio regulationLess crop lossPreferred fish stocks Less Lyme disease Temperature Modulation Predictable climateLess Heat Stress Water purificationUncontaminated Irrigation water Less contamination in fish Better drinking water Ecosystem services Economic Sectors

Economic sector “Use” Ecosystem “Use” Economic Sector “Make” Macro EconomicsEcosystem Impacts Ecosystem “Make” Final Ecosystem ServicesEcosystem Processes Accounting Framework For Modeling Ecosystem Services The “make” and “use” of disservices

Economic sector “Use” Ecosystem “Use” Economic Sector “Make” Macro EconomicsEcosystem Impacts Ecosystem “Make” Final Ecosystem ServicesEcosystem Processes Accounting Framework For Modeling Ecosystem Services The “make” and “use” of disservices

NAICS - North American Industry Classification System – Industries = Producers of Economic Services – Land-Uses/Ecosystems = Producers of Ecosystem Services NAPCS – North American Product Classification System – What Industries Produce = Economic Goods/Services – What Ecosystems Produce = Ecosystem Services Utilization of US Census Bureau Datasets

The “Impact” Table Economic sectors impact ecosystem service producers (Databases in units of impact by units of production) Open WaterDevelopedWetlandForest Agriculture Phosphorus and Nitrogen Runoff Tractor damage on Roads Drainage Fisheries Stock depletionWaste production Mining Pollution of upstream waters Roads Manufacturing Mercury PollutionAir qualityPollution Households Phosphorus and Nitrogen Runoff Externalities Economic Sectors

Examples of potential Climate Change Adaption Scenarios AgricultureFisheriesForestryManufacturingHouseholds “Buy local”Plant trees In the yard Less packagingLife style changes IndustryChange in fishing gear Selective Cutting Develop energy efficient production methods GovernmentFarm bill encourages environmen tal-friendly production methods Ecosystem based mgmt. Set aside natural areas Establish cap and trade; other regulations The “Decision” Table for Scenario Development Investment decisions towards capital in economic sectors

Aim is not to predict one exact picture of the future, but to present several alternative future developments. Scenarios consider potential developments and turning points. Scenario Modeling