A retrospective of projecting the future – an ex-post assessment of emission projections used for EU air pollution and greenhouse gas policy Melanie Sporer, Martin Adams, EEA

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Projections according to IPCC ‘A projection is a potential future evolution of a quantity or set of quantities, often computed with the aid of a model. Projections are distinguished from “predictions” in order to emphasize that projections involve assumptions concerning, for example, future socio-economic and technological developments that may or may not be realized, and are Therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.’

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 WOM, WEM, WAM emissions projections and PAMS

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 While subject to substantial uncertainty, emissions projections are useful for policy makers Knowledge building and exchange Discovering and understanding potential future states Better understanding impacts of policies and measures in the future – policy effectiveness Informing policy options and target decisions Assessing and identifying additional actions needed for meeting targets + initiate actions Political and power purposes

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Objectives ‘To perform an ex-post assessment of past greenhouse gas and air pollution emission projections based on a comparison with emission inventory data.’ ‘To obtain a better understanding of ‘accuracy’ and consistency of past emission projections reported by countries under the NECD and the MMD.’

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May key questions How do emission projections reported from 200x until 2011 compare with observed emission trends from 1990 to 2012? What can policy-makers learn for the policy cycle from differences between projections and ‘realisations’? What can emission projection compilers learn for the emission projections’ quality assessment and quality control (QA/QC) system?

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Assessment in short 1.Look at MS national emission projections, see how they have changed over time and compare past national emission projections with current national emission inventory data 2.Look at MS national emission inventories and identify the recalculation range over time 3.Choose case studies and dig into the underlying reasons why changes occurred 4.Make conclusions and give recommendations addressing the 3 key questions

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 An illustration: Past successive reporting of WM projections for NO x Note – the right hand bar for each MS shows the latest inventory emissions for 2010

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Key objective: use case studies to explore reasons for convergences and divergences (1) Instances where projections converge to the actual emission data with time. What were the reasons that informed this convergence? Year 2012 = final emissions data for 2010 that were reported in = emission projections for 2010 made in = emission projections for 2010 made in 2009 etc.

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Key objective: use case studies to explore reasons for convergences and divergences (2) Instances where projections diverged or were inconsistent over time with the 2010 emission data. What were the reasons for this?

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Is it possible to identify common factors explaining divergences? What recommendations for projection compilers and policy makers result? NECD ceiling Year 2012 = final emissions data for 2010 that were reported in = emission projections for 2010 made in = emission projections for 2010 made in 2009 Explanatory factors? economic recession; policy failures; incorrect socio- economic parameters? incorrect assumptions on energy use, fule proces, traffic demand etc? poor reflection of policy implementation? etc.

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Thank you!

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Several projection scenarios to distinguish the effects of PAMs: WEM… A ‘with measures’ projection shall encompass currently implemented and adopted policies and measures (Para 29, FCCC/CP/1999/7) Implemented policies and measures (Para 14, FCCC/CP/1999/7) a)national legislation is in force; b)OR one or more voluntary agreements have been established; c)OR financial resources have been allocated; d)OR human resources have been mobilized. Adopted policies and measures : an official government decision has been made and there is a clear commitment to proceed with implementation (Para 14, FCCC/CP/1999/7) 13

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 …WAM, WOM Scenario ‘with additional measures’ (WAM): also encompasses planned policies and measures (Para 29, FCCC/CP/1999/7) Planned policies and measures : options under discussion and having a realistic chance of being adopted and implemented in future (Para 14, FCCC/CP/1999/7) Scenario ‘without measures’ (WOM): excludes all policies and measures implemented, adopted or planned after the year chosen as the starting point for this projection (Para 29, FCCC/CP/1999/7) 14

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Policy background and reporting: NECD DIRECTIVE 2001/81/EC OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 23 October 2001 on national emission ceilings for certain atmospheric pollutants NECD requires the 27 EU-MS to annually report their air emission projections for 2010 for four air pollutants, nitrogen oxides (NOX), non- methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and ammonia (NH3), to monitor the projected progress of the country’s emissions NECD sets pollutant-specific and legally binding emission ceilings for each of these pollutants and for each country, which must be met by 2010

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Policy background and reporting: MMD DECISION No 280/2004/EC OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 11 February 2004 concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol Under the Kyoto Protocol, the EU-15 has committed to a common emission reduction target to be achieved over a five-year commitment period from Individual reduction targets for the 15 MS have been agreed under the EU accord, known as burden- sharing agreement. Greenhouse gas emission projections have been reported by EU-MS biennially under the MMD in order to track the countries progress towards their targets

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013