Assessing Storm Surge Information Jeff Lazo, NCAR Betty Morrow, NCAR and ERG 2011 NOAA Hurricane Conference November 29, 2011 National Hurricane Center Special thanks to Hugh Gladwin (FIU) and Crystal Burghardt (NCAR) for their assistance with some of the projects reported here.

MAJOR QUESTIONS TO ADDRESS Do coastal residents understand storm surge? Do they understand the level of surge risk where their home is located? Where do they get their coastal storm information? What forecast products do they currently rely on? What, if any, new storm surge products are indicated?

DATA COLLECTION Review of Surge Questions on Past Surveys – VA, AL, GA, MS HFIP Coastal Residents Internet Survey – Panel Survey – NC – TX – N = 1238 Coastal Emergency Managers Survey – Internet Survey – NC – TX – N = 53 Extratropical – Tropical Cyclone Survey – Telephone Survey – Atlantic, Gulf, Pacific – N = 900

Of those in Cat 1 zone, about one third are each of these: Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not very concerned Hampton Road VA Evacuation Study Morrow & Gladwin through Dewberry for FEMA and USACE n = 1599 SURGE RELATED FINDINGS FROM PAST SURVEYS

Evacuation Survey Results Hampton Road VA Evacuation Study. Betty Morrow and Hugh Gladwin through Dewberry Hampton Road VA Evacuation Study Morrow & Gladwin through Dewberry for FEMA and USACE

Coastal Georgia Evacuation Study Morrow & Gladwin through Dewberry for FEMA and USACE. Each dot = one interview Not Very Likely Somewhat Likely Very Likely Likelihood Would Be Flooded in Major Hurricane:

Coastal Mississippi Behavioral Study Morrow & Gladwin through Dewberry for FEMA and UCACE

Coastal Alabama Behavioral Survey Morrow & Gladwin through Dewberry for FEMA and USACE

Likelihood of Surge Damage by Surge Exposure HFIP Coastal Residents Survey Lazo and Morrow

Disagree Completely Agree Completely Disagree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Neutral

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SURVEY Note: These results are similar to those reported in our November 2010 public survey where 55% said yes for a separate watch and 66% for a separate warning.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SURVEY

Preference For Delivery Of Surge Information Most thought maps would be most useful, followed by graphics and pictures 90% thought it extremely or very useful to express in feet above ground level 83% thought showing probability of different depths would be extremely or very useful EMERGENCY MANAGERS SURVEY

EXTRATROPICAL – TROPICAL CYCLONE COASTAL RESIDENTS SURVEY Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific States (22) Sample proportional to population at risk Alaska did not have any respondents due to low population Sample skewed toward older adults, retirees, white, middle-class* 60% live within one mile of coast Questions on ET-TC experience, knowledge, attitudes, behavioral intentions * Will be compared to 2010 Census demographics for the same areas.

EXTRATROPICAL – TROPICAL CYCLONE COASTAL RESIDENTS SURVEY TC ONLY AL, FL, GA, HI, LA, MS, TX n = % of sample ET ONLY CA, OR, WA n = % of sample ET & TC CT, DE, MA, MD, ME, NC, NH, NJ, NY, RI, SC, VA n = % of sample

EXTRATROPICAL SAMPLE QUESTION: Severe coastal storms aren’t limited to tropical cyclones, and can occur year-round in all ocean areas. In the North Atlantic region these coastal storms are referred to as nor’easters. On example occurred in November 2009 when the mid-Atlantic states experienced high prolonged onshore winds causing near-record flooding in VA and severe beach erosion along the NJ and DE coasts. Another example occurred in late July 2008 when a severe coastal storm in Alaska’s Bering Sea caused a combination of high surf and storm surge which destroyed seawalls, damaged structures and homes, and severely damaged a critical airstrip in northwest AK. Do you live in an area that can be impacted by severe coastal storms like these? 57% in ET ONLY states, 26% in ET-TC states, and 58% in TC ONLY states said they were not in an area that could be affected by severe coastal storms like these.

Hurricane Irene* 84% were very or somewhat concerned 58% were very or somewhat concerned about potential damage from storm surge 44% were very or somewhat concerned about potential injury or loss of life from surge 90% rated the quality of the forecasts as excellent or good Information sources (in order) were local TV, Weather Channel, national TV, local radio and the Internet 24% said they used the Internet a great deal for hurricane information *Asked of North Carolina to Maine Only

TOTAL SAMPLE 60% had been affected by a severe coastal storm (less for ET region) 39% said a severe storm had turned out to be worse than they expected 48% had evacuated before (less for ET region) 47% live in an official surge or evacuation zone 29% said they didn’t know their elevation 60% said they had never heard how high surge could be where their home is located 68% said it was not very likely their home would ever be flooded by surge (no important regional differences) 78% said it was very or somewhat likely they would evacuate for a major storm; 38% for Cat 1 or 2

TOTAL SAMPLE 48% had never seen a flood map for their home’s location 84% were familiar with forecasts and warnings from their local WFO 50% were familiar with WFO website 79% said the NWS issues Coastal Flood Watches or Warnings in their area 85% think existing flooding forecasts sufficient 72% favor a separate storm surge warning for severe coastal events

USE OF WEBSITES PRODUCT EXTENSIVELY 1234 NEVER 5 Local NWS Site* 12%9% 17% 12% 50% NHC Website TC Only States 21% 10% 16% 9% 44% ET-TC States 14% 8% 14% 10% 54% * Includes Total Sample

EXTENT RELY ON EACH PRODUCT A GREAT DEAL PRODUCT TC ONLY STATES ET ONLY STATES ET-TC STATESALL STATES DON’T KNOW Coastal Flood Watch 30% 18% 28% 25% 3% Coastal Flood Warning 42% 24% 35% 33% 3% Hurricane Watch 65% 20% 51% 43% 2% Hurricane Warning 71% 23% 60% 49% 2% Hazardous Weather Outlook 37% 28% 35% 33% 6%

IMPORTANCE OF INCLUDING IN A COASTAL SURGE WARNING VERY OR EXTREMELY A LITTLE OR SOMEWHAT NOT AT ALL OR DON’T KNOW Timing74%17%8% Location77%15%8% Depth71%19%11% How Far Inland74%15%11% Impacts60%28%12% Protective Action57%29%14%

SUMMARY High risk coastal residents often not aware of: – Flood and surge potential – Possible effects of surge – Evacuation or surge zone status – Elevation – Flood map status Insufficient concern about coastal storms, particularly in ET states Rely mostly on local TV, cable & national TV, and local radio for forecasts, but growing use of Internet

SUMMARY Support for separate surge information – Among coastal residents – Among emergency managers Should include (in order of preference): – Location, timing, how far inland – Depth, impacts, protective actions Preferences for receiving surge information: – Stated as feet above ground level – Maps, graphics and pictures

Future Tasks Further analysis of ET-TC Survey data Testing of possible surge forecast products with various users Survey of Coastal ET-TC Broadcast Meteorologists and EMs ?

QUESTIONS? DISCUSSION

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