Future research issues Rosa Ruggeri Cannata – Eurostat Third International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators 17 – 19 November 2010, Moscow

Tendency Surveys terminology Tendency surveys and seasonal adjustment Characteristics of tendency surveys –Questions ask managers/householders to eliminate seasonal effects –Seasonal movements in tendency surveys time series are not very pronounced Open debate: seasonal adjustment or just smoothing?

Tendency Surveys terminology Seasonal adjustment: different methods tendency surveys time series are stationary Their seasonality is additive Seasonal adjustment methods based on a decomposition in trend-cycle component and seasonal component can create distortions It is important to analyse the results of different seasonal adjustment methods

Tendency Surveys terminology Seasonal adjustment and revisions European surveys are generally not revised Advantage: data are stable and easier to integrate econometric models Disadvantage: seasonal adjustment not in line with the seasonal adjustment of macroeconomic variables

Tendency Surveys terminology Seasonal adjustment: balances or components Tendency surveys are usually published as a balance of “positive” minus “negative” assessment Seasonal adjustment is applied to the balance series The two series of “positive” and “negative” evolution are however available When the seasonal movements of the two components differ significantly it could be advisable to seasonal adjust separately the two component series and compare the results of: –first subtract and then seasonal adjust the balances –First seasonal adjust the components and then produce balances

Tendency Surveys terminology Alternative quantification methods Tendency surveys are usually published as a balance of positive minus negative evolution Several studies on alternative methods did not show any particular advantage in alternative quantification methods Limit of balances: the weight of “unchanged” answer is not taken no consideration; some information is lost Dissemination issue: publication of balances plus the “unchanged” time series in order to give the full information to the final user