A Step In Right Direction Bare ground class from Olson World Ecosystem Land Cover And from NASA MODIS MOD12 product W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

Comparison of Modeled and Measured PM 2.5 Concentrations at Odessa, Texas, Dec. 15, 2003 Left panel with Olsen land surface data; right panel with NASA MODIS land data: measured (dots) modeled (solid lines) N.B. different scales W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

ASSESS CLIMATE INFLUENCE ON AQ Vegetation in May 2007 vs. average during same period from 2000 through Courtesy Global Inventory Modeling & Mapping Studies Group NASA GSFC W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

Potential Model Applications Air & Highway Safety Monitor Regional AQ Identify Airborne PM Sources Evaluate Soil Contamination Control Policies Assess AQ in Future Climates W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

February 2007 Forecast Verification W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

MONITORING REGIONAL AQ Model Simulations & Forecasts Fill gaps in Monitoring Network W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

ISOLATE DUST SOURCE IN MODEL TO ASSESS SOURCE CONTRIBUTIONS W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

CLIMATE CHANGE & AIR QUALITY PM sources in drier future vs sources in 2003 Scenario: The December 15-17, 2003 Storm Drier future 2003 W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

Number of hours of PM 2.5 exceeding daily standard (65  g/m 3 ) among 40 sites. N.B. Effective Dec 17, 2006, standard is 35 mg/m3 W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

PM 2.5 difference at 40 sites: drier future vs (pink Channel View, TX) W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

Drought Dust Health Inhaled PM leads to heart failure, …“Ambient particulate matter accelerates coagulation…” Mutlu et al., 2007 “Inhalation of fine, airborne particulate matter (PM) has serious chronic human health effects and is a major cause of premature death worldwide.” Moreno et al., 2006 “Coachella, California, residents’ cardiovascular mortality and heart rate variability are elevated due to high airborne PM,” Ostro et al., 2000 W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

Image by Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response Team NASA GSFC, for Natural Hazards MODIS Rapid Response Teamhttp://naturalhazards.nasa.govMODIS Rapid Response Teamhttp://naturalhazards.nasa.gov California wildfires stripped the ground of vegetation. Exposed soil and overlying ash are vulnerable to winds, as in this false color Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) image. A red plume of dust and ash blows over the Pacific Ocean and San Clemente Island. Newly burned areas, vegetation, water & clouds. Plume clearly comes from the burn scar near San Diego. Terra satellite image 27/11/ meters per pixel Moderate Resolution Imaging SpectroradiometerTerra W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

Valley Fever CAUSE: SOIL-DWELLING FUNGI FUNGUS RESPONDS TO WEATHER & CLIMATE INHALING SPORES MAY LEAD TO INFECTION –FLU=LIKE SYMPTOMS (fever, cough, etc.) –MAY MOVE FROM LUNGS TO OTHER PARTS OF BODY REGIONAL MORTALITY / MORBIDITY –2004 SEVERE CASES: AZ = 3,665 USA = 6,056 –DEATHS: 6-10% of reported cases (in AZ) Adapted from A. Comrie W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

Valley Fever Endemic Zone Hector and Laniado-Laborin, 2002 From A. Comrie, 2000 W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

Meningitis in Africa Meningococcal meningitis occurs worldwide but especially so in dry Sub-Saharan Africa: the "African meningitis belt“, including Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Chad, Cameroon…. W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

Meningitis in Africa Bacterial meningitis Acute bacterial meningitis can follow when respiratory passages are irritated by dust or when bacteria, carried with windblown dust, are inhaled, enter the bloodstream and migrate to the brain and spinal cord. A meningococcal meningitis pandemic beginning in 1996 resulted in some 300,000 cases reported to WHO Countries Cases Deaths Fatality Rate (in 1997, WHO) Burkina Faso 21,504 2, % Ghana 18,551 1, % Mali 10,960 1, % Total 59,461 6, % W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

Transcontinental transport of microorganisms Kellogg, Griffin, 2005: Fungal diseases, affecting crops like sugarcane and bananas, have appeared in the Caribbean within a few days after an outbreak in Africa. Bacterial pathogens of rice and beans in the Caribbean air samples, as well as those that cause disease in fruit and a variety of trees, from African air samples. Foot and Mouth Disease virus (endemic to sub-Saharan Africa) may be carried by African dust; links between dust storms that passed over Great Britain and outbreaks of the disease. W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

RECENT INTERNATIONAL STEPS The World Climate Research Programme and the Global Atmospheric Watch (WWRP/GAW) Sand and Dust Storm (SDS) Project was established in September Purpose: achieve comprehensive, coordinated and sustained observations and modelling of sand and dust storms in order to improve monitoring of these storms, increase understanding of storm genesis, and enhance prediction capabilities International Review of the draft science strategy & implementation plan -- in Barcelona, Spain, November 2007 W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

PROPOSED PAN-AM DUST CENTRE for the WMO International Sand & Dust Storm Warning System Atmospheric Observations & Modeling Simulations & Experimental Forecasts Surface Source Mapping & Monitoring Critical Sources User & Client Base Practitioner, Manager, Policy Maker Region>Country>State>Community AQ, Health, Transp., Ag. Information Portal Public & Partner ISDSWS Public Access W.A.Sprigg – AAAS

Dust Storm Modeling: Status and Opportunities Models tested in N. America, Mediterranean, Africa, Middle- East – can be used worldwide WMO International Sand and Dust Storm Warning System marshals forces to reduce dust emissions & consequences of climate change New NASA satellites (A-Train) and NOAA operational weather forecast system (NMM) can improve global dust source inventories and forecasts W.A.Sprigg – AAAS