A global conversation. Touching on evidence of climate change.

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Presentation transcript:

A global conversation

Touching on evidence of climate change

Global surface temperatures for five datasets Adjusted to remove variation due to: El Niño/La Niña Volcanic particulates Solar irradiance Foster, Global temperature evolution 1979–2010. Environ. Res. Lett. 6 (2011)

Northern hemisphere temperatures since Year 200 AD, showing how unusual is this rate of warming Mann et al, Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. PNAS 105;13252, doi pnas

Upper ocean heat content Based on Lyman et al., Robust warming of the global upper ocean, Nature Vol 465, 20 May 2010, doi: /nature09043

Many glaciers are melting South Cascade Glacier in the state of Washington. Photo by Andrew Fountain. From Understanding and Responding to Climate Change, National Academy of Sciences, 2008

A global conversation

Ocean CO 2 NASA

Sea level trends from NASA

Peer-reviewed science overwhelmingly indicates that: Climate is changing globally This change is primarily (but not exclusively) due to greenhouse gases, especially CO 2

Frost is more likely on… Clear night Cloudy night /slideshow/ htm

Costs of natural disasters in the USA Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3 Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2008

Insurance companies

Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 20 Oct 2011 Green color=low carbon output per ton of food produced

What do climate models project for Kentucky?

Projection for 2080: Change in temperature (Dec-Feb)

Projection for 2080: Change in temperature (March-May)

Projection for 2080: Change in temperature (June-August)

Projection for 2080: Change in precipitation (Dec-Feb)

Projection for 2080: Change in precipitation (March-May)

Projection for 2080: Change in precipitation (June-August)

Projection for 2080: Change in temperature (June-August)

Projection for 2080: Change in precipitation (June-August)

Effects of climate change on Kentucky agriculture

Impact of climate trends on corn production, Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980, Science 333:616, 2011

Impact of climate trends on soybean production, Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980, Science 333:616, 2011

Impact of climate trends on wheat production, Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980, Science 333:616, 2011

Published by The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, 2011

Forages C4 grasses will increase Yield and quality may be similar

Areas suitable for premium wine production Purdue Climate Change Center, 2008

New crop/market opportunities?

Pests and disease will likely increase Purdue Climate Change Center, 2008

What changes in nitrogen fertilization will occur? USDA GHG Inventory, (published in June, 2011)

What changes in animal production should we prepare for?

“Chance favors only the prepared mind” SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 1 : 66 | DOI: /srep00066 Quote of Louis Pasteur

Trend in Palmer Drought Severity Index J. GEOPHYSICAL RES 116:D12115 Increased severity of drought is expected in central North America (IPCC Extreme Events Report, 2011)