Climate and Cities Understanding the Risks and Costs Warren Evans, Director, Environment Department The World Bank

2 Balancing Mitigation and Adaptation Cities and urban areas consume 75 per cent of the world’s energy and produce nearly 80 per cent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. The battle to prevent catastrophic climate change will be won or lost in our cities. Millions of urban dwellers and businesses will be adversely impacted by climate change Minimizimng devastating social, economic and environmental impacts requires action NOW to increase climate resilience

3 Balancing Mitigation and Adaptation At the World Bank 1993Began implementing / leveraging GEF funding for climate change 1999Pioneered carbon finance through $180m prototype Carbon Fund- now at over $2 billion carbon funds 1999”Fuel for Thought” Environment Strategy for the energy sector 2001Environment Strategy with climate change pillar Clean Energy Investment Framework (CEIF): (i) increased energy access, especially in Sub- Saharan Africa; (ii) accelerated transition to a low carbon energy economy; (iii) adaptation to climate variability and change IDA and Climate Change Paper 2008 Strategic Framework on Climate Change and Development; Sustainable Infrastructure Action Plan

4 Six Areas for Action Support climate actions in development processes Mobilize concessional and innovative finance Facilitate development of innovative market mechanisms Leverage private finance Accelerate development and deployment of new technology Step up policy research, knowledge and capacity building Six Areas for Action Support climate actions in development processes Mobilize concessional and innovative finance Facilitate development of innovative market mechanisms Leverage private finance Accelerate development and deployment of new technology Step up policy research, knowledge and capacity building World Bank Strategic Framework on Development and Climate Change

5 Six Climate Threats Top 12 Countries Most at Risk from Each DroughtFloodStormCoastal 1mCoastal 5mAgriculture MalawiBangladeshPhilippines All low-lying Island States Sudan EthiopiaChinaBangladeshVietnamNetherlandsSenegal ZimbabweIndiaMadagascarEgyptJapanZimbabwe IndiaCambodiaVietnamTunisiaBangladeshMali Mozambique MoldovaIndonesiaPhilippinesZambia NigerLaosMongoliaMauritaniaEgyptMorocco MauritaniaPakistanHaitiChinaBrazilNiger EritreaSri LankaSamoaMexicoVenezuelaIndia SudanThailandTongaMyanmarSenegalMalawi ChadVietnamChinaBangladeshFijiAlgeria KenyaBeninHondurasSenegalVietnamEthiopia IranRwandaFijiLibyaDenmarkPakistan Middle Income Low IncomeHigh Income Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response Source: World Bank staff.

6 Climate Risks Are Higher for Poor Countries Source: World Bank staff. Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response

7 Impacts on Agriculture…  Where will rural families go? Adaptation: the example of Africa

8 How Much Does Adaptation Cost? There Are Some Estimates, but the Ranges Are Wide and Uncertain Developing Countries — Estimated Cost of Adaptation by 2030 Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response The implied change in temperature is 1.5º C for 2030 Cost estimates based on expert opinion

9 Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response Good Adaptation is Cost-Effective Source: European Environment Agency. Investment in physical infrastructure Sea level rise likely to carry high costs Adaptation (dark green) buys a large reduction in climate change costs (light green)

10 Available Resources GEF $ 0.25 blln for FY09 World Bank Group (IBRD/IDA/ IFC/MIGA) $1.9 billion for FY09 Carbon Market: CDM&JI < $ 8 billion for FY09 UNDP $ blln for adaptation GFDRR $ 0.07 blln Adaptation Fund $ blln Climate Investment Funds by MDBs $ 6 billion FY09 estimates are projections Both GEF $ 0.25 blln Main Resources to address Climate Change Other MDBs $3 billion for FY09 EU Global Climate Change Alliance € 0. 3 blln Huge Gap Adaptation (Total Needs est. $28-67bn / year) Mitigation (Total Needs est. $170bn+ / year) Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response

11 URBAN RISKS - Resilience Understand vulnerabilities including displacement Understand structural relationships> potential failures in urban systems Understand conflicts between built and natural environment Understand capacity to recover> Livelihoods and poverty

12 Where People are going… To cities To coasts Of 30 largest cities, 20 in coastal areas Thousands of smaller cities and towns at risk Coasts will be moving Should be considering provision of infratructure for cities on new coastline Should be considering space for “new” natural areas

13 Barriers A. Complexity- lack of knowledge B. Lack of awareness C. Lack of integration between and across government and other stakeholders D. Lack of resources

14 Revitalizing Spatial Planning Surge in informal settlements Economic pressures Short-sighted development Optimizing mitigation and adaptation actions Harmonizing natural and built infrastructure Political leadership

15 Ecosystem-based vs Infrastructure Solutions

16 Two Major New Initiatives Climate Resilient Cities A Primer on Reducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters and Climate Change Impact and Adaptation In Asian Coastal Cities

17 Climate Resilient Cities A Primer on Reducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters The Primer outlines city typologies It integrates climate change with DRM It presents a “hot spot” tool for identifying city- specific priorities for action It identifies both adaptation and mitigation strategies at the local level, based on learning from regional and global sound practices The Primer is applicable to a range of cities - from those starting to build awareness on climate change to those with climate change strategies and institutions already in place

18 Objectives of the Primer To understand the issues and impact of climate change at the city level To engage in a participatory approach to establish vulnerabilities to potential climate change impacts To learn about the why and the how through illustrative examples from other cities To build resilience to future disasters into planning and design through no-regrets endeavors To understand the requirements for moving from theory to practice To engage in partnerships and shared learning with other cities facing similar problems

19 Program Components A. Develop local resilience action plans Populate Hot Spot risk assessment matrix and compile City Information Base (Primer tools) Identify priorities for action & design feasible programs B. Strengthen national and local partners for implementation scale-up in initial countries Identify and engage national/ local partners at outset C. Scale up implementation of resilience action plan development to 100 cities in East Asia

20 Climate Change Impact and Adaptation In Asian Coastal Cities  Joint World Bank, ADB, JICA (formerly JBIC) Institute study  Future climate-change induced flood implications for 2050  Bangkok, HCMC, Kolkata, Manila Objectives  Strengthen the understanding of the economic, social and environmental impacts of climate variability & change, and the vulnerabilities of the urban community  Provide a set of options to mayors, national level decision makers and urban planners on key policy measures needed to address adaptation to climate change in coastal cities

21 Area affected by regular floods driven by heavy monsoon rains and high tides will and flood duration will increase Salinity intrusion will increase Extreme events will increase Storm surge the key driver for extreme events and the most damaging and influential of climate change parameters

22 Significant risk of water shortages during the dry season due to water quantity and quality. Urban population likely to be much higher than projections, in part due to climate change refugees Surface and ground water treatment plants are at risk of flooding and salinity Transportation network affected