Testimony of Wayne A. Cornelius Director, Center for Comparative Immigration Studies, UC-San Diego To the House Judiciary Committee, Field Hearing on Immigration, San Diego, August 2, 2006

U.S. border enforcement spending

Southwest border apprehensions *Projected, based on 2% decline during Oct. 1, 2005 – July 15, 2006 period Concentrated border enforcement strategy initiated

U.S Border Enforcement Expenditure and Apprehensions *Apprehensions in 2006 projected, based on 2% decline during Oct. 1, 2005 – July 15, 2006 period

Net growth, : 500,000 per year Stock of unauthorized immigrants living in the United States (estimate by Pew Hispanic Center, March 2006) Year

SOURCE: Cornelius 2005 Major Border Patrol Operations New Migration Routes Migrants Take More Dangerous Routes Around Border Patrol Operations

Source: UCSD survey in Yucatan, 2006

 92% of Jalisco + Zacatecas migrants were able to enter eventually, on same trip  97% of Yucatec migrants eventually succeeded  Most entered successfully on 1 st or 2 nd try Actual border crossing experiences of unauthorized migrants (among those apprehended one or more times on most recent trip to the border)

Knowledge of intensified border enforcement 75% of unauthorized migrants from Jalisco, Zacatecas, and Yucatan knew about enhanced border enforcement efforts

Perceived difficulty of clandestine entry (among those with U.S. migration experience) % who believe it is “much more difficult” to evade the Border Patrol when crossing the border now: Jalisco, Zacatecas:62% Yucatan:68% Source: UCSD surveys in Jalisco and Zacatecas (Jan. 2005), and Yucatan (Jan.-Feb. 2006)

Perceived danger of illegal entry 78% of recent migrants from Jalisco, Zacatecas believe it is “very dangerous” to cross the border without papers (81% of Yucatecan migrants) 64% of Jalisco, Zac. migrants knew someone who died trying to cross border (12% of Yucatecan migrants)

69% had seen or listened to PSAs warning of dangers of clandestine crossings 9.6% said warnings had some effect on their plans to migrate Perceived danger of illegal entry (among Yucatecan migrants) U.S. Border Patrol-sponsored TV spot broadcast in Mexico, 2005

Effects of border enforcement on migration behavior  Most would-be migrants are well- informed about the difficulty and hazards of clandestine entry.  Such knowledge has no effect on the propensity to migrate.  Unauthorized migrants are willing to take greater risks and pay much more to people-smugglers to reduce risk and gain entry.

 Despite the border build-up, most unauthorized migrants still succeed in entering on the first or second try.  Migration strategies have been affected by enhanced border enforcement (crossing points have changed; use of smugglers has increased), but illegal entry attempts are not being deterred.

“We don’t care if we have to walk eight days, fifteen days—it doesn’t matter the danger we put ourselves in. If and when we cross alive, we will have a job to give our families the best.” – Miguel, 28 yr.-old migrant to the U.S., February 2006

Unintended consequences of border enforcement have been more important than the predicted outcome (deterrence of unwanted immigration)  creating new opportunities for professional people-smugglers  making borders more lethal (increasing migrant fatalities)  higher rates of permanent settlement in the U.S.

Yes: 92.6% No: 7.4% Source: UCSD survey in Yucatan, January-February 2006 Use of people-smugglers by unauthorized migrants (on most recent trip to U.S.) Use of people-smugglers by unauthorized migrants from Yucatan (on most recent trip to U.S.)

Source: UCSD survey of returned migrants in Yucatan, 2006

Deaths due to unauthorized border crossings, detected in U.S.-Mexico borderlands Source: Mexican Consulates/Mexican Ministry of Foreign Relations. Includes unidentified bodies and bodies found on both sides of border *through May 31, 2006

Causes of death among unauthorized border crossers Environmental causes (hypothermia, dehydration, sunstroke, asphyxia) Drowning Auto accident Source: Mexican Consulates/Mexican Ministry of Foreign Relations

Extending stays in the United States 37% of Jalisco + Zacatecas migrants stayed longer than expected on most recent U.S. sojourn (51% among Yucatecos) 79% know someone who remained in the U.S. because of stronger border enforcement Source: UCSD surveys in Jalisco, Zacatecas, and Yucatan,

900 miles Sub-Saharan migration to Spain

Mauritania 500 mi. Migrant fatalities due to shipwreck,

Policy recommendations Legalize most unauthorized immigrants already here, and encourage naturalization. Provide more legal entry opportunities for new immigrants, both high-skilled and low-skilled, temporary and permanent. Create alternatives to emigration in sending areas (targeted development programs that create higher-paying jobs)

Employment-based immigrant visas Current cap: 140,000 per year (of which 5,000-10,000 are usually allocated to low-skilled workers) 3,261 employment-based visas were issued to Mexican immigrants in 2003 ________________________________________ = manufactured illegality?

GDP per capita in Mexico and the United States NAFTA Mexico U.S. Ratio of U.S./ Mexico GDP

Principal reason for most recent migration to the United States Higher wages in U.S. than in Mexico36% Home construction, debt repayment, or starting business in Mexico16 More job opportunities in U.S.15 Family reunification12 Vacation8 Returning to the same job in U.S.3 Other10 Total100% Source: UCSD survey of Yucatec migrants, 2006

Questions and further information: Wayne Cornelius Center for Comparative Immigration Studies, UCSD Tel