US Planck Data Analysis Review 1 Lloyd KnoxUS Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006 The Science Potential of Planck Lloyd Knox (UC Davis)

2 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 2 Outline Review of Accomplishments of CMB Science Great Opportunities Remain and Planck is poised to exploit them –Planck capabilities compared with WMAP –Parameter Error Forecasts –Planck as an Inflation Probe –Other Science: BBN, dark energy

3 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 3 CMB Accomplishments CMB is a powerful cosmological probe –Applicability of linear theory  highly precise theoretical calculations –Richness of angular power spectrum phenomenology (all those bumps and wiggles… not just a power law)  lots of information important CMB is a proven technique with many important accomplishments –Confirming our basic picture of structure formation (gravitational instability) –Confirming dark energy (acceleration inferred from SN data not widely accepted until confirmed by CMB) –Verifying prediction #1 of inflation (  tot = 1 c.f. ~0.2) –Ruling out defect model for structure formation in favor of inflation –Verifying prediction #2 of inflation: correlations on super-horizon scales –Verifying prediction #3 of inflation: nearly scale-invariant spectrum of primordial perturbations –Best constraints on key cosmological parameters: baryon density, matter density, amplitude of primordial perturbations, temperature of the CMB –WMAP1 cosmological interpretation paper (Spergel et al. 2003) has 3207 citations to date! This has been the default paper to cite for ‘cosmology’. 3239

4 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 4 Great Opportunities Remain: Forecasted TT Power Spectrum Errors Simulated 4-year Model (red curves) has n_s = 1 Enabled by Planck’s greater sensitivity, angular resolution and frequency coverage WMAP has revealed 4% of the information content* of the CMB temperature anisotropies. Planck will reveal 64%. *(Percentage of a_{lm}’s at l 1)

5 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 5 Great Opportunities Remain: Forecasted EE Power Spectrum Errors Simulated 4-year Enabled by Planck’s greater sensitivity, angular resolution and frequency coverage

6 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 6 Parameter Error Forecasts Baryon Density Dark Matter Density Primordial Amplitude Optical Depth of Reionized IGM Primordial Perturbation Power Spectrum Power Law Spectral Index Running Expansion Rate Planck WMAP 4yr Qualitative Advance in Precision Inflation

7 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 7 Inflation Inflation is our leading paradigm for the origin of the hot Big Bang and generator of the primordial perturbations which are the seeds of all structures in the Universe (galaxies, stars, advisory boards). The CMB is the single best way, by far, to study inflation and the primordial perturbations no matter what their origin.

8 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 8 Current Constraints on Inflation Parameters Spergel et al. (2006) On the verge of verifying yet another prediction of inflation!

9 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 9 Ruling out Harrison-Zeldovich Planck will nail it by –using long lever arm enabled by high resolution and high sensitivity with no cross-experiment relative calibration challenges –cleanly controlling SZ contribution due to frequency coverage to higher frequencies where spectral shapes are very different –determining  with low-l polarization to break the  -n s degeneracy The first point is the dominant one. With the measurement extended to high l there is no need to use the low l data (affected by reionization) to get n_s. Discarding all data at l < 40 will degrade Planck’s error on n_s by less than 10%.

10 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 10 Long Lever Arm Simulated 4-year Model (red curves) has n_s = 1 Planck will provide precision probe of primordial scalar power spectrum.

11 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 11 Detecting Tensor (Gravitational Wave) Perturbations The scalar perturbation spectrum is a great probe of inflation, but the tensor perturbation spectrum is more direct. The scalar spectrum is determined by a combination of the expansion rate during inflation and how it’s changing with time. The tensor spectrum depends only on the expansion rate during inflation, and thus the energy scale of inflation. Tensor perturbations produce polarization B modes, while scalar perturbations, to first-order, do not. Detectability of tensor B modes depends sensitively on this energy scale. –+ GUT-scale inflation produces detectable tensor perturbations. –+ Simplest models of inflation, when tuned to have the observed scalar perturbation amplitude, have an energy scale ~ GUT-scale. –+ Gauge-coupling unification hints at new physics at the GUT scale.

12 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 12 BB Power Spectrum BB power spectrum for r=0.1 and  =0.17 Planck Bluebook Influence of tensors may be detectable in the BB power spectrum. 0.1  K 2 Tensor signal Scalar contamination r = T/S is proportional to H_{inf}^2

13 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 13 Current Constraints on Inflation Parameters Spergel et al. (2006) Simplest models have detectable values of r.

14 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 14 BB Power Spectrum BB power spectrum for r=0.1 and  =0.17 Planck Bluebook Influence of tensors may be detectable in the BB power spectrum. 0.1  K 2 r = T/S is proportional to H_{inf}^2

15 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 15 Polarized Foreground Emission Page et al. (2006) 0.1  K 2 Foreground cleaning is terribly important for polarization! Planck’s broad frequency coverage will be highly valuable.

16 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 16 Other Signatures of Inflation Isocurvature modes. Some inflation models produce isocurvature perturbations. Planck’s polarization measurements enable it to set much tighter upper limits on their ampitudes, or possibly detect them. Non-Gaussianity. Planck will improve error on the primordial non-Gaussianity parameter f_{nl} from \pm 25 to \pm 2.7, providing a strong constraint on the inflationary model space. Even with currrent accuracies some string-inspired inflation models have been ruled out already.

17 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 17 Outline Review of Accomplishments of CMB Science Great Opportunities Remain and Planck is poised to exploit them –Planck capabilities compared with WMAP –Parameter Error Forecasts –Planck as an Inflation Probe –Other Science: BBN and dark energy

18 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 18 Planck and Model Dependence All parameter inferences from the CMB are highly indirect and therefore model dependent. Planck will enable us to test the models much better than can do with current data. BBN example: –Assuming no isocurvature modes the WMAP3 constraints on baryon density have errors of a few per cent. –Dropping this assumption the uncertainty becomes 20%, assuming 4 years of WMAP and 2% assuming Planck. –There are interesting discrepancies in light element abundance determinations. Only deuterium agrees with nominal WMAP constraint.

19 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 19 Dark Energy CMB experiments are important for Dark Energy probes because they pin down the parameters of the high-redshift Universe and the distance to last scattering. All forecasts for proposed dark energy probes assume that –Planck flies –The data are analyzed –The data are released

20 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 20 Summary The CMB has been the technique for studying cosmology. Most of the information content in the CMB has not yet been revealed, but will be by Planck (4% c.f. 64%). Planck is an inflation probe that is going to happen soon.

21 US Planck Data Analysis Review 9–10 May 2006Lloyd Knox 21 Parameter errors and assumptions about initial conditions Trotta and Durrer (2004) e.g., error in z eq goes from 3.5% to 14% for WMAP4 And the error in z eq goes from 1% to 1.5% for Planck