Latin American Panel 13-14 September, 2010 Lima, Perú TANKER MARKET Peter M. Swift.

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Presentation transcript:

Latin American Panel September, 2010 Lima, Perú TANKER MARKET Peter M. Swift

LAP Meeting 2009 Markets

LAP Meeting 2010 MARKETS SHORTER Term view

LAP Meeting 2009 MARKETS LONGER Term view

Source: Clarkson Shipyard Monitor/INTERTANKO m dwt Projected tanker fleet development Current orderbook 2. 2.Phase out of all SH tankers by end 2010 number Based on :

Source: Clarkson Shipyard Monitor/INTERTANKO USD bn Investment Orders for new tankers – USD bn USD m price

World oil demand mbd mbd Source. IEA Increase in Middle East, USA, China and ROW*1Q05-4Q11 mbd

Tanker Markets Today ? Demand - mid 2008 to mid 2010:Down 0.6% Supply - mid 2008 to mid 2010:Up 19% Demand - mid 2008 to mid 2011:Up 0.8% Supply - mid 2008 to mid 2011:Up 26%

Market Forecast !

Tanker Markets Today Demand : World oil trade Supply : Ships on Order & Fleet development Tanker market Shipbuilding capacity

World Oil Demand vs. GDP Source: Clarksons (September 2009)

Orderbook – All ships (>999GT) Source: Clarksons, April 2010 Orderbook Development (All ship types)

Tanker Contracting Source: Clarksons, September 2010

Tanker Contracting by Country of Build Source: Clarksons, September 2010

Newbuilding Tanker Prices Source: Clarksons, September 2010

Tanker Orderbook Development* *Data pertains to end of period and last complete month Source: Clarksons, September 2010

Tanker Cancellations VLCCSuezmaxAframaxMR no of vessels Source: Clarksons, September 2010

Tanker Order Slippage 2009 Vs 2010 Proportion (%) of schedule that did not deliver in 09/ All TankersVLCCSuezmaxAframaxPanamaxMRHandy % not delivered as scheduled ytd Source: Clarksons, September 2010

Tanker Fleet Delivery Schedule deadweight (million) Deliveries (forecast) MINUS Cancellations & SlippageRemovals (forecast) *Includes phase out ideas, 2010 reflects remainder of the year Source: Clarksons, September 2010

Tanker Age Profile no of vessels Handy MR Panamax Aframax Suezmax VLCC Source: Clarksons, September 2010

Average age tanker fleet above 10,000 dwt Based on LRFairplay Years

Tanker Fleet Comparisons VLCCSuezmaxAframaxPanamaxMRHandy percentage of exisiting fleet (dwt) non-double hullOn OrderBuilt since 2000 *Note that Aframax and Panamax include coated vessels Source: Clarksons, September 2010

Where next for Single Hull Tankers ? Trading beyond 2010 ? AustraliaNo ChinaNo EU No Mexico No Romania No S KoreaNo* PhilippinesNo* UAE No* (*No official note sent to IMO yet) BahamasYes BarbadosYes Liberia Yes Marshall Isl.Yes Panama FlagYes Japan Yes SingaporeYes India Yes Hong KongYes** (** Max. 20 years old) Flag/Port State positions re MARPOL 13G trading up to the age of 25 years United States N/A (OPA90)

Source: Baltic Exchange/INTERTANKO USD/day Average tanker freight rates based on the Baltic rates – until September

The uncertainties Global or regional economic stagnation New pipelines Natural and other disasters – e.g. Macondo spill Climate Change legislation – e.g. voluntary or involuntary slower speeds Oil price – floating storage/contango opportunities and inventory levels Eastern Siberian Pacific Ocean Pipeline

Shipbuilding output and forecast Source: Worldyards/INTERTANKO Aug 09 m cgt

Muchas Gracias Thank you For more information, please visit: London, Oslo. Washington, Singapore and Brussels