Residential Sector Market Studies Planning Tool Output of Market Studies Needs Assessment ( study) July 29, 2014 webinar Opinion Dynamics, for California Public Utilities Commission 1

Overview of Webinar Context: Market Studies Needs Assessment Market Studies definitions Scope of Needs Assessment Study and Planning Tools Overview of Market Studies Planning Tools Using the Residential Market Studies Planning Tool 2

Context: Market Studies Needs Assessment study Part of CPUC evaluation of the energy efficiency programs Opinion Dynamics supporting CPUC, and the Market Studies Program Coordinating Group (PCG) First work order is to conduct a needs assessment to: 1.Understand where gaps exist in market knowledge 2.Assist CPUC, IOUs, stakeholders to develop a plan for, and prioritize future market studies (short term and over next 10 yrs) Sector-specific webinars One of three webinars to review Market Studies Planning Tools to help CPUC, IOUs and stakeholders determine market study needs Separate tools developed for residential, commercial, and industrial/ag sectors 3

Additional Market Studies Needed in Short Term? Needs Assessment points towards market studies for CPUC/IOUs/stakeholders to consider in short term. –Based on stakeholder interviews and data in Market Studies Planning Tools (potential and goals study, past evaluations, current program activity, and CPUC decision guidance) Draft Needs Assessment Report will be made available for public review –Stakeholders encouraged to ALSO review Market Studies Planning Tools to make additional study recommendations. CPUC will consider funding one or more new market studies in timeframe 4

Longer Term Market Studies Needs Needs Assessment Report proposes a process to identify and fund market studies over a longer term (10 year) period. –Also identifies specific ongoing market study needs (saturation and end-use studies) Maintenance of Market Study Planning Tools would ensure a data-driven decision making framework –IOUs, CPUC, CEC, stakeholders can contribute to decision making 5

Market Definition / Study Types Working Definition of a “market” A market is an economic system where a particular good or service is transacted between entities offering them and those seeking to purchase them. A market consists of customers, manufacturers and other suppliers, channels of distribution, and transactions. Reasons for conducting market studies 1.To understand whether to run a new program in a market 2.To modify/change an existing program 3.To understand the impacts of a program on a market Types of Market Studies Market CharacterizationMarket Assessment Market EffectsMarket Tracking Market Baseline 6

Market Studies Needs Assessment Scope 7 Within which markets does the CPUC and IOUs already have good data? Which market studies are worthwhile for the CPUC and IOUs to undertake and what is their relative priority? What is an appropriate framework for conducting market study research and what are the structural and communication requirements of such a framework?

Study Objectives To Allow CPUC and IOU Staff to : 8 Identify, plan, and field high-priority market research within the cycle Track market research across contracts groups and evaluation efforts Plan for future market research

Market Studies Planning Tools Excel based 3 sector specific tools developed (residential; industrial/ag; commercial) Contains multiple types of information from six data sources 9

Data Sources: Energy Savings Potential 2013 Potential & Goals Study Used: Market Potential, Mid- Value IOU savings (excluding Codes & Standards) Market Studies excel tool designed to accommodate choice of one or more years when looking at potential /M088/K661/ PDF

Data Sources: CPUC Guidance 11 Past CPUC Decisions: –D : Decision Approving 2010 to 2012 Energy Efficiency Portfolios and Budgets. –D : Decision Providing Guidance on Energy Efficiency Portfolios and 2012 Marketing, Education, and Outreach. –D : Decision Approving Energy Efficiency Programs and Budgets

Data Sources: Current Program Activity Current EE Portfolio Composition: February 2014 Monthly Reports from v/ v/ Updateable within tool 12

Data Sources: Past Market Studies Past Market Studies – ~100 Studies in Inventory –Literature Review to develop inventory of past market research –Files from Calmac.org and the Emerging Technologies Program Database –Created “market studies inventory” with unique MSNA# identifier Cri teria for Identified Studies: –Pu blished, publicly available, covering market research in CA, included information on a market, market actor, or non participants for energy efficiency or demand response Excluded: –Policy planning research, technology assessments, unpublished IOU studies completed with program dollars and other “grey” literature, unpublished MOU research, IOU workpapers, R&D studies 13

Data Sources: Current Market Research Current Market Studies – 31 studies –PSR: CPUC/IOU public site for current evaluation studies within California –PDA: Public Documents Area – CPUC site for evaluation documents 14 PSR:

Data Sources: Market Study Needs Interviews with stakeholders performed by Opinion Dynamics in the first quarter of 2014 (n=23) Analysis of past studies and interviews 15 Source: Ranking of market study research needs from stakeholder interviews conducted by Opinion Dynamics in Q

WHAT CAN THE TOOL DO? Market Studies Planning Tools 16

What is the Market Potential for Certain Years? 17 Tab guide is provided with hyperlinks Choice of market potential years is flexible and must be chosen on sector specific tab. Other information links to these cells.

Which sectors and measure groups have the highest potential to save? 18 End-use and measures based on Potential & Goals Study Two tabs of summary data showing market potential and market knowledge High = Market is well characterizedMedium = Some market informationLow = Little is known

Where are market knowledge gaps? 19 Functionality of market studies tab: –Can find past or current studies on the Market Studies tab –Can filter studies for all individual variables contained in the tab –Go to source study: tool contains links to specific studies within the tab Using Results: –Study information is broad so need to look at a specific study to see exactly what market information it contains –Current market knowledge based on initial review of study and creation of type of knowledge under specific end use and measure combination –Binary value set for some variables (1=present, 0=not present)

Where do we have high potential and low market knowledge? 20 One tab with detailed information Uses shading to depict “more” (darker) or “less” (lighter) Market knowledge broken out to show linkages between market actors High = Market is well characterizedMedium = Some market informationLow = Little is known Market Knowledge Gaps Relative Importance

LIVE TOOL DEMONSTRATION 21

Process for Updating the Tools (proposed) Centralized Updating approach via PCGs –Maintained by Market Studies PCG Each market sector tool will have a PCG member who is responsible for making the actual updates. Individual will coordinate between market studies PCG and sector PCGs. Responsible for updating tools with new studies and savings values –Used for evaluation planning by sector PCGs (ED and IOUs) –Will incorporate input from stakeholders Updated biannually? –Following release of Potential and Goals study –Frequency to align rolling portfolio cycle EM&V activities Location of sector tools –Tools will be housed on Basecamp and the PDA 22

Next Steps CPUC considering how to implement use of the tool –Please provide input/comments on tools posted to PDA by August 15 (see questions below) Market Studies Needs Assessment draft report and webinar –Draft report will incorporate feedback on tools, will be released for comment in fall –Draft report includes criteria from stakeholder interviews for prioritizing market studies. –Will also include list of recommended of short term recommended studies resulting from use of tool evaluated using stakeholder criteria list 23

Questions and Feedback Questions on the Tool What questions do you have about the tool? What do you like/not like about the tool? What could be improved? How do you think you would use the tool? Written Feedback Tools posted to PDA at Search “market studies” Please provide comments via the PDA by August 15 24

Contact Information California Public Utilities Commission Cathy Fogel, Opinion Dynamics Mary Sutter, Opinion Dynamics, Mikhail Haramati, 25