SMART Workshop Hammamet September Universidade Atlântica - Portugal WP 10 Comparative policy analysis

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Deliverable Comparative Analysis (due to August 2005) Universidade Atlântica - Portugal 1. Deliverable 10.1 (contribution to) - The Role of Socioeconomic Analysis in Demand for Fresh Water

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Objectives To identify commonalities and differences and relate them to the specific regional setting To identify more generally applicable results that are invariant across the case studies To organise these finding in terms of a comparative policy assessment, and best practice examples WP10

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Complete indicator data base Role socioeconomic and policy aspects to understand water scarcity Socialization of water scarcity managementSocialization of water scarcity management Anticipating on trends in societyAnticipating on trends in society Public preferences taking into accountPublic preferences taking into account Public support for policy measuresPublic support for policy measures Governments expect more responsibility according with water resources (other authorities, business communities and citizens)Governments expect more responsibility according with water resources (other authorities, business communities and citizens) Giving account of government effortsGiving account of government efforts

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Complete indicator data base Socioeconomic and policy aspects to understand water scarcity

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Complete indicator data base Socioeconomic information to understand water scarcity To collect in a systematic way information on the supply and demand of use of water (D), the economic value of water systems (I), effectiveness and efficiency of the way public and private money is spent and the distribution of financial founds according water resources (R)

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Complete indicator data base Socioeconomic information to understand water scarcity Competing land uses Confidence in market forces Work towards higher efficiency A just distribution of advantages and disadvantages

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Complete indicator data base Policy process information to understand water scarcity To collect in a systematic way information on interventions taken by authorities, companies and citizens (decision makers) in order to recognize the need for (new) policy, to formulate well-founded policy strategies, to be able to assess it and account for it all to society

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Complete indicator data base Policy process information to understand water scarcity Need to approach problem definition Consciousness of interdependency Other than rational analytic views on policy processes Increasing urge for giving account of government actions

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Complete indicator data base SocioeconomicPolicy process Driving force Water use by economic sectors population dynamic and trends Impact economic loss or damage economic profits public perception of the water resources state Responses cost effectiveness of policy measures efforts and performance of authorities and all decision makers distribution of financial founsprogress of policy processes public support for policy measures The role of socioeconomic and policy aspects to understand water scarcity (DPSIR framework)

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Develop derived/aggregate indicators (normalised) or indices Indicators in Water Management (Existing) Human Needs Index (Gleick, 1996) - considers the use of water instead of water availability. A person needs 50 litres per day for basic water requirements (drinking, cooking, bathing and hygiene) Water Availability Index Index of Water Scarcity Environmental Sustainability Index Water Poverty Index (Sullivan, 2002, Lawrence et al., 2002) - water scarcity issues and socio-economic aspects – 5 aspects considered: (Resources, Access, Use, Capacity and Environment)

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Develop derived/aggregate indicators (normalised) or indices Indicators in Water Management (Existing) Social Water Stress Index represents a society’s social adaptive capacity in facing the challenges of physical water scarcity. Dividing the amount of annually available renewable water by population size and the Human Development Index for each country. A higher value indicates a greater degree of water stress. Access to drinking waterand sanitation services Water Stress Indicator

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Information pyramid (Wamsley, 2002, modified) Complete indicator data base

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Use of Indicators to the comparative analysis Availability of Indicators and the level of analysis Acceptability Comparability Clarity

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Deliverable D10.2 Comparative Analysis of case studies Universidade Atlântica - Portugal

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Objectives To compare water policies and practices between five countries (case studies) Typifying each case study departing from a common list of indicators Compare the policies adopted by each case study region with the WFD of the EU Description of the main causes and effects of water scarcity Deliverable D10.2

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Introduction Methodology Trends in water renewable and withdrawal Socioeconomic dimensions and water resources Population and water scarcity Water scarcity and sustainable development Comparative water policy dimensions Main Topics

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Introduction Deliverable D10.2 Theoretical approach: Origin of human communities and water use (as infinitive resource) Growth of water demand Main causes of Water resource pressures Water policies role and the efficiency of water management Comparative Analysis

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Introduction Deliverable D10.2 Regional approach: Population Growth and Water Resources in the Middle East and North Africa regions Regional approach: Population Growth and Water Resources in the Middle East and North Africa regions The Middle East and North African countries are home to 300 million people (5 % world total) 1 % of the world annual renewable water resources The freshwater problems have arisen from increasing demand for water Comparative Analysis

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Introduction: data needs Deliverable D10.2 Lack important data to fulfill the base of comparative analysis

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Deliverable D10.2 Source: Turkey draft deliverable 5.1

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Introduction: Data needs by level of analysis and sources Regional (Case study, from National and regional statistics) National (from United Nations statistical yeardbook and other official entities)

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Methodological principles for the comparative analysis Definition of the object for analysis The level of comparison Conceptual comprehension Analysis of the indicators Assessment of present and future trends

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Methodological principles for the comparative analysis The level of comparison Water scarcity indicators 5 countries SimiliarityDifference Analysis of common features Analysis of differences

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Methodological principles for the comparative analysis Conceptual understanding The comparison to be relevant - concepts are defined clearly The concepts are utilized not only during approach and analysis, but also when comparing and analyzing the results

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Methodological principles for the comparative analysis Analysis of the indicators In comparative analysis of indicators, the results depending essentially on the method The methods of comparison depends of the subject. In this study various methods to compare will be adopted

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Methodological principles for the comparative analysis Analysis of the indicators: methods of comparison

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Factors enhancing the success of comparative analysis Analysis of the indicators Comparative Analysis Interaction between subjects and objects Comparison of the collected data Comparison of concepts and definitions Similarity of compare case studies (typifiing) Context knowledge of the research object Compatibility between levels of analysis

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Problems related to international comparative analysis differences in implementation policies goal differences differences in steering systems At the theoretical point of view, the international scale of analysis is more difficult to obtain the optimal preconditions for comparative analysis

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Assessment of present and future trends 1. 1.Specification of the policy context for the analysis. Derived from the following: Inventory of relevant national and international lows and regulations (including - EU WFD) Assessment of stakeholders and their interests within the case study areas

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Assessment of present and future trends 2.Comparative analysis of three scenarios providing possible future trends in case study areas and water scarcity driving forces. Three scenarios developed for 5 countries are being compared to describe the alternative futures and to map trends in natural systems (e.g. climate), economic and social systems (e.g. societal preferences, economic growth), institutions (e.g. strictness of environmental quality targets) which lead to those futures.

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Link scenario assumptions to P indicators by means of models or ES relationships In this step could be interesting to interact with the regional Decision Makers (e.g. Water Policy Leaders and Stakeholders) The Decision makers could provides guidance to the most pertinent policy context and to evaluate the relevance of the projected scenario assumptions (including Pressure indicators)

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Link scenario assumptions to P indicators by means of models or ES relationships This guidance enter as input of models or helping as link between models and Comparative Analysis In this perspective scenario assumptions to P indicators resulting from the identification of measures and development of three different management strategies

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Link scenario assumptions to P indicators by means of models or ES relationships This guidance enter as input of models or helping as link between models and Comparative Analysis In this perspective scenario assumptions to P indicators resulting from the identification of measures and development of three different management strategies BAU Scenario: Identifies and assesses measures regarding to the cost- effectiveness and the feasibility of implementation: technical measures, working with nature measures, economic incentives (resulting from the consultation proccess) Other 2 scenarios: constructing alternative packages of measures which, together, could achieve pre-defined targets (resulting from the ES analysis, however including the reactions of colsuntation proccess)

SMART Workshop Hammamet September Comparative Analysis Link scenario assumptions to P indicators by means of models or ES relationships Impact assessment of management strategies expressed in the three scenarios Evaluation of management strategies Evaluation of the scenarios Policy analysis covering current situation and future options (This step involves the use of software tool (ex: Definite)