premier TO OBSERVE ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION FOR A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE INTERACTIONS

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov Presentation at the SPARC SSG meeting by Michaela I. Hegglin (University of Toronto, Canada) on behalf of: PREMIER Mission Advisory Group (MAG): Michaela HegglinUniversity of Toronto, Canada Brian Kerridge Rutherford-Appleton Lab, UK Jack McConnell York University, Canada Donal MurtaghChalmers University, Sweden Johannes OrphalKIT, Germany Vincent-Henri PeuchMeteo-France, France Martin RieseFZJ, Germany Michiel van WeeleKNMI, Netherlands ESA Science Coordinator: Jörg Langen ESA Technical Coordinator: Bernardo Carnicero-Dominguez Science Team Candidate ESA Explorer Mission PREMIER

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009 Operational Service drivenResearch driven Earth ExplorerEarth Watch Core Missions Opportunity Missions Meteorology w. Eumetsat GMES Meteosat MSG EPS (MetOp) MTG Post EPS Sentinel 1 GOCE Launched 17/3/09 EarthCARE 2013 ADM-Aeolus 2011 CryoSat SMOS 2009 Swarm 2010 Sentinel 2 Sentinel 3 Sentinel 4 Sentinel 5 EE ? ESA’s Living Planet Programme ? EE

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009 Call for Ideas ESAC Recommendation / PB-EO Selection  March - July 2005  May 2006 User Consultation Meeting Mission Assessment Groups / Phase 0 Reports for Assessment ESAC Recommendation / PB-EO Selection Step 2: Mission Assessment (Phase 0)  Spring  Autumn 2008  January 2009  February 2009 Implementation Step 4: Implementation (Phases B1, B2, C/D, E1) 24 6 Mission Advisory Groups / Phase A Reports for Mission Selection User Consultation Meeting ESAC Recommendation / PB-EO Selection Step 3: Mission Feasibility (Phase A)  BIOMASS CoReH 2 O PREMIER 7th Earth Explorer Mission: Steps to Launch  2011  Step 1: Call and selection

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009 Scientific justification Atmospheric composition changes are driving climate change Direct radiative forcing by trace gases & aerosol Indirect effects through chemistry and aerosol-cloud interactions Feedbacks via water vapour, cloud & trace gases

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009 UTLS transport The distribution of the radiatively active species O 3 and H 2 O is determined by transport and dehydration processes on multiple time and length scales.

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009 Radiative impact of composition changes Changes in the UTLS have a large impact on surface temperature. Region of particular sensitivity is between hPa. Depends on opacity and thermal structure. Surface temperature sensitivity / unit mass change [relative scale] Pressure (hPa) Ozone Water vapour Tropopause 24 km ~6 km Methane P. Forster, RAF 2008

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009 To investigate processes controlling global atmospheric composition in the mid/upper troposphere and lower stratosphere; a complex region of particular importance for climate. by resolving 3-D structures of trace gases, thin cirrus and temperature in this region on finer scales than has previously been possible from space To study links with surface emissions and pollution. by exploiting synergies with nadir-sounders on EPS-MetOp Mission objectives: PREMIER = PRocess Exploration through Measurements of Infrared and millimetre-wave Emitted Radiation PREMIER will quantify: A. Relationship between atmospheric composition and climate. B. Atmospheric transport processes important to climate and air quality. C. Relationship between atmospheric dynamics and climate.

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009 Limb-emission sounding High res. vertical profiling Tenuous trace gases detectable Day- and nighttime observations Dense coverage cf solar occultation Nadir-sounding Near-surface layer seen between clouds but Little or no vertical resolution Observation technique EPS MetOp PREMIER Innovation: PREMIER provides horizontal sampling comparable to a nadir sounder!

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009  mm-Wave Limb-Sounder (MWLS / STEAMR) Heterodyne multibeam receiver, km sampling GHz similar to instrument on Odin, but optimized for UT  IR Limb-Sounder (IRLS) incl. cloud-imager Imaging Fourier spectrometer, MIPAS-like 770 – 1650 cm -1 spectral sampling 0.2 / 1.25 / 10 cm -1 vertical sampling 2.0 / 0.5 / 0.5 km  Orbit: sun-synchronous, 817 km, LTDN 9.30h 8 min ahead of MetOp to provide link to lower troposphere  Measured species: T, H 2 O, O 3, CH 4, PAN, CFC-11, CO, C 2 H 6, HNO 3, cirrus clouds PREMIER satellite instruments

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009 Synergies between IRLS and MWLS (in sounding the troposphere) IR – 12  m mm-wave Probability [%] of transmittance > 55% Latitude / o N IRLS / MWLS observations to low altitudes controlled by clouds / water vapour. Higher probability for IRLS / MWLS to propagate down in the extra-tropics / tropics.

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov Typhoon PREMIER IRLS dynamics MIPAS Observational requirements Altitude range: km with global coverage. Minimum of a 4-year mission period. Near real-time observations of multiple trace gases (and clouds) at high 3D-resolution. Typhoon Winnie (20/08/97) Modes: Dynamics: 0.5 km x 25 km x 50 km Chemistry: 2.0 km x 80 km x 100 km Clouds : 0.5 km x 4 km x 8 km

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009 Convective uplift in the Indian monsoon Biogenic emissions from Bangladesh wetlands are lofted into the region important to climate by convection in monsoon circulation Structure in the 3-D distribution can affect methane global radiative forcing 18 km 0 km GEMS CH 4 – Aug to Oct 2003 Height of 1.9 ppmv

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009 Retrieval Simulations for PREMIER IRLS and IASI PREMIER captures the structure of the plume in the UTLS. IASI extends coverage into the lower troposphere i.e. below the limb-range. GEMS IASI IRLS+IAS I IRL S

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009 Retrieval simulations for PREMIER CH 3 OH – Model CH 3 OH – IRLS CO – Model HCN – MWLS HCN – Model CO – MWLS Plumes over Atlantic from S.American biomass-burning Plume seen well by IRLS Plume seen well by MWLS PREMIER will observe ozone precursors (eg CO & CH 3 OH) & indicators of biomass burning (e.g. HCN) in individual plumes from tropical burning, boreal forest fires and industrial emissions. PREMIER will allow us to study long-range transport of such pollution plumes.

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009 Across-track sampling by PREMIER IRLS (dynamics mode) will add the 3 rd dimension – Wavelength & propagation direction will be determined unambiguously for the first time → Major advance on COSMIC & HiRDLS in quantifying gravity wave vertical momentum fluxes and their parameterisation in climate models Locations of COSMIC Profiles for whole day Wave vector Gravity waves initiated by flow over Mountains in South America Longitude (deg) Latitude (deg) Altitude (km) 3-D temperature structure produced by gravity waves (Retrieval simulation for PREMIER IRLS)

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov International context No other mission with capabilities comparable to PREMIER will be launched for at least another decade. Missions under discussion are: –NASA/CSA: CASS –CSA: STEP –ALTIUS (Belgian mission) –NASA: GACM –NASA: ALICE In addition to meeting its research objectives, PREMIER will –complement nadir observations from operational satellites –meet global height-resolved monitoring requirements (which will otherwise not be met) for GCOS, WMO/IGACO, GEOSS/CEOS ACC, GMES

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009 Summary and status For the first time, 3D-distributions of various atmospheric variables will be observed from space in the height range most important to climate. The high resolution observations will allow a better quantification and characterization of the complex dynamical and chemical processes in the UTLS. PREMIER will help to establish a comprehensive data base for model validation and development. Particularly important in the light of: The integration of tropospheric and the stratospheric models. Increased resolution of CCMs and CTMs within the next few years. Implementation of cloud resolving models. Therefore useful for SPARC/IGAC (CCMVal, AC&C, Gravity-wave initiative) PREMIER will contribute to global height-resolved monitoring and operational applications in mission time-frame (feeds into WMO/UNEP, IPCC & WCRP). Development schedule is compatible with launch during 2016 as Earth Explorer 7 (PREMIER assessment report). Selection of one of the candidate missions for implementation by ESA in early 2011 (after user consultation meeting in late 2010).

premier SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009 The vertical distribution of ozone is expected to change strongly due to climate change. The stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux in the NH is predicted to increase substantially In the SH, the signal is dominated by ozone depletion and recovery CMAM simulations from Hegglin & Shepherd (Nature Geosci., 2009) O3O3