Emergent Ventures India Key Technology Drivers in Solar PV resulting in Costs Reduction and Land Use Optimization Satyendra KUMAR Partnership to Advance Clean Energy – Deployment (PACE-D) Technical Assistance Program Date: September 15, 2015 Venue: Tapti Hall, Shangri-La, Ashoka Road, Connaught Place, New Delhi Time: 9.00 AM – 4.30 PM

What is happening Globally ? 2 EPIA had not considered India’s 100 GW !

India to be in top 5 solar markets 3

Making of a Solar PV Power Plant Project Development Land – Solar resource assessment and feasibility PPA – revenue model Power Evacuation License and Approvals EPC Project Specification and Tendering Selection of EPC Project Management O&M Site and Plant Management Contract / Guarantee management Plant Performance – monitoring, analytics and upkeep PPA – collection of revenue

Cost and Tariffs 5 Rs/Wp (Cost of: equipment, land, manpower, capital and soft costs) & Rs/kWh LCOE: (Rs/Wp, Solar Radiation, O&M, plant lifetime) Tariff: (LCOE + expected returns)

Typical Cost Chart for a Large Solar PV Power Plant 6 As the prices of Modules and Components Fallen, Land starts showing up in the cost pie.

Land Use Optimization 7 Increase Rs/kWh -Use of Trackers -More Efficient Solar Technology (c-Si – Mono/Multi, Thin Films, next Gen…) Mixed use of Land – Roof Top Solar (Factories and Residences) – Agriculture, Acquaculture

PV Technology – Shipment (not installed capacity) 8 Source: IDTechEx and SPV Market Research report "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Shipments: Capacity, Production, Prices and Revenues to 2019“, (Published, 2015) About 92% of the total module shipment last year were based on crystalline silicon

Price Trend in last 4 years 9 Courtesy: Bikash Kumar, Saurya EnerTech

Do module prices always go down ? 1011

Rs/Wp : Materials ( and Capital) 11 Silicon (Energy) Wafers (Slurry, Wire) Cells (Gases, Wet Chemicals, Silver paste, Aluminum pastes) Modules (Glass, Encapsulants, Backsheet, Energy, Copper) Inverters, Transformers, Cables (Copper, Aluminum, steel) Module Mounting Structures (steel, cement) Premium on technology is already gone !

Typical Cell Efficiency Roadmap (Yingli) – Getting more Wp 12

Module Cost Reduction Potential 13 Source: PV Technology and Cost Outlook, , GTMPV Technology and Cost Outlook,

Solar PV Project Cost Trends: International Experience 14

Cost Reduction of last decade has taken its toll on several solar companies globally 15 Yes and No: Solar PV companies are closing down ( data): Many small as well as big solar companies have closed down, filed for bankruptcies or reduced operations across the globe, mainly in US and Germany

Cost Reduction in Last Decade 16 Scale & Manufacturing Excellence – whole PV value chain (polysilicon, wafering, cells, modules) and inverters EPC Learning Commodity Driven – impact of material costs, currency, local labor costs, Now Cost of capital drives Rs/kWh

PV Challenge: What Next

Key Drivers for Cost Reduction in Long Term 18 Fraunhofer-ISE Study Increase in module efficiency has most important effect on cost reduction roadmap Investments in Technology will begin again - $/Wp

Summary 19 Rs/kWh is the right metric to understand solar technology instead of Rs/Wp Current cost reduction is driven by learning and scale. Equipment cost is getting linked to commodity pricing There is still some room left on the current path reduction. Access and cost of capital are key drivers Further investments in PV technology is needed to avoid the inflation trap (manpower and commodities!)

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