TRADE FLOWS USING TEXAS 254 COUNTIES DATA SETS Hyunkyung Jung GIS Term Project November 29 th, 2001

INTRODUCTIONS Modeling long-run transportation demands has been developed for Effect of the interactions between activities in regional economies Daily Movement of Persons and Goods which can be estimated by interaction between transportation and land use

INTRODUCTIONS A conceptual examination Land Use – Transportation Interaction Models Application of random- utility-based mutli-zonal input-output (RUBMZIO) model with TEXAS counties data set Trade Flow System

DATA COLLECTIONS Texas Highways & Railroads Output dataset from Yeon-Joo Min (UT Transportation Graduate Student)

Simulation data: 254 zones, 31 export zones and 14 sectors Technical coefficients for each of the 5 Districts j ( ) Travel costs ( ) Foreign export demands for export zone ( ) Origin Choice parameters ( ) DATA ASSEMBLY

RUBMZIO ITERATIONS 4: Calculate average input costs 3: Calculate trade of internal flow and are initially given and are an export zone 2: Calculate trade of export flows, and are initially given 1: Calculate disutility

AMOUNT OF TRADE FOR AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISHERIES PRODUCTS

254 COUNTIES & 25 DISTRICTS

POPULATION

TEXAS HIGHWAY & RAILWAYS AND 31 EXPORT ZONES HOUSTON SAN ANTONIO FTW & DAL

EMPIRICAL RESULTS The amount of trade ( ) for each sector is highly affected by the transport costs/accessibility Trade volumes in this example highly favor the closest zones

TRADE FLOWS

GENERAL TREND of TRADE FLOWS -Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries from Austin- AMA LBB CHS ABL WFS PAR ATL TYL DAL FTW ODALFK BRY WACBWD SJTELP PHR CRP BMT HOU YKM AUS SAT LRD

INPUT AND PARAMETER EFFECTS Technical Coefficient Total production costs Total consumption amounts Foreign Export Demand Overall economy’s demands Trade flows

INPUT AND PARAMETER EFFECTS Transporting Cost (for interzone and export zone) The amount of trade for each sector Scale Parameter The distribution pattern of trade

SCALE PARAMETER DECREASE EFFECT -Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries from Austin- AMA LBB CHS ABL WFS PAR ATLDAL FTW ODALFKELP AUS LRD PHR CRP BMT TYL SJT BWD BRY HOU SATYKM WAC

CONCLUSIONS Improvements to a zone ’ s technology significantly enhanced its trade and production levels Travel cost increases limited trade interactions, while scale- parameter reductions increased interactions. Increases in Export demands fed back through all levels of the trading system, spurring demand and trade flow increases everywhere.

CONCLUSIONS RUBMZIO model A valuable set of relationships to predict trade flows, location choices/production levels, and market prices Assessing regional transportation, land use, technology, and trade policies

FUTURE STUDY Represent trade-offs between supply and demand and between transport costs and land values. Investigates the sensitivities of trade flows and other model outputs to various inputs and parameters Combine the mode choice parameter and origin choice parameter and show the effect of each choice on trade flow Compare a variety of related land-use/transport interaction models