Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 15 December 2004

Norges Bank 2 US UK Japan Euro area GDP. Growth in volume on previous quarter Per cent. Seasonally adjusted. 02 Q1 – 04 Q3 Sources: EcoWin, Statistics Japan, National Statistics (UK), EUR-OP/Eurostat, Consensus Economics and Bureau of Economic Analysis (US)

Norges Bank 3 US Euro area UK Interest rate expectations Actual developments and expected key rate at 28 October and 13 December 28 October 13 December Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 4 Core CPI/HICP in the US, the euro area and the UK 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 - Oct 04 UK US 1) Euro area US 2) 1) CPI 2) Personal consumption expenditure deflator, excluding food and energy Sources: EcoWin/National statistics

Norges Bank 5 International effective exchange rates Index = 100. Daily figures. 1 Jan 03 – 13 Dec 04 Norway UK 1) A rising curve denotes a stronger exchange rate Sources: Bank of England/EcoWin US Euro area Sweden

Norges Bank 6 Oil price Brent Blend USD per barrel. Daily figures Sources: Norges Bank, Telerate and IPE Futures price 28 Oct (IR 3/04) 13 Dec

Norges Bank 7 Oil futures prices USD per barrel light crude (West Texas). Daily figures. 1 Jan 01 – 13 Dec 04 Sources: Norges Bank and EcoWin/NYMEX Delivery in 6-7 years Delivery in 1 month

Norges Bank 8 CPI-ATE Total and broken down into imported and domestically produced goods and services 1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 3/04 (broken line).12-month rise. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Domestically produced goods and services (0.7) 1) Norges Bank's estimates. Imported consumer goods (0.3) CPI-ATE

Norges Bank 9 Experts' expectations of consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead Per cent. Quarterly figures. 02 Q2 – 04 Q4 2 years ahead 5 years ahead Source: TNS Gallup

Norges Bank 10 Since previous monetary policy meeting 1) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank Developments in the krone exchange rate 1) (I-44) Daily figures. 1 Jan 02 – 14 Dec 04 Stronger exchange rate Weaker exchange rate

Norges Bank 11 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank Interest rate expectations in Norway. Actual and expected developments in the key rate and the interest rate differential against trading partners at 28 October and 13 December Jan 03 – 1 Aug 06 Key rate in Norway Interest rate differential against trading partners 28 October 13 December

Norges Bank 12 Source: Statistics Norway Index of commodity consumption 1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume. Jan 02 - Oct 04

Norges Bank 13 Total Sources: TNS Gallup and Norges Bank Consumer confidence indicator Unadjusted figures. 99 Q1 – 04 Q4 Personal financial situation Norwegian economy

Norges Bank 14 Overnight stays at hotels Monthly figures. Seasonally adjusted 3-month average. Jan 01 - Sep 04 Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 15 Estimated and actual investment in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport Value. In millions of NOK Previous year Same year Final figures Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 16 Total debt mainland Norway (C3) and domestic debt distributed between households and non-financial enterprises (C2). 12- month rise. Aug 01 – Oct 04 C2 non-financial enterprises Source: Norges Bank C3 Mainland-Norway C2 households

Norges Bank 17 Main aggregates in quarterly national accounts and projected main macroeconomic aggregates in Inflation Report 3/04 Annual growth in 2004 Projections in IR 3/2004 Growth from first three quarters in 2003 to first three quarters in 2004 Mainland GDP 3¾3.5 Private consumption 54.5 Mainland gross investment 5¾3.8 Petroleum investment 12½9.3 Traditional exports 42.7 Imports 8½8.1 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank Employment (LFS) Seasonally adjusted. In 1000s Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 19 House prices NEF/ECON (January 1998–November 2004) and Statistics Norway (98 Q1– 04 Q3). Percentage rise on same period previous year SN NEF Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF) and Association of Real Estate Agency Firms (EFF)

Norges Bank 20 Projections for the output gap 1) Annual figures. Per cent – Graph from Inflation Report 3/04 1) The output gap measures the difference between actual and potential mainland GDP. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 21 Assumptions for the money market rate and the krone exchange rate (I-44) Source: Norges Bank Forward interest rate 28 October (IR 3/04) 3-month money market rate Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44 1) Forward interest rate 14 December 1) A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate. Forward exchange rate 28 October (IR 3/04) Forward exchange rate 14 December

Norges Bank 22 Source: EcoWin Movements in EUR/USD 1) Daily figures. 1 Jan 03 – 13 Dec 04 1) A rising curve denotes a weaker dollar exchange rate. Dollar per euro

Norges Bank 23 Interest rate increases in this business cycle Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank First interest rate increase Key rate at lowest point Current key rate Change since lowest point Iceland New Zealand UK US Australia Canada Switzerland Euro area Sweden Denmark JapanTowards zero 0.00 Trading partners 1) ) Calculated as a weighted average of EUR, SEK, GBP and USD. On 31 December 2003 this interest rate was 2.31 per cent.