Media 5/1/2012

Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – discuss and critically analyze political events in the United States government – students will be able to identify and explain the role of informal institutions and their effect on policy.

Office Hours and Readings Pages Office Hours – Today 11-1:30 – Wednesday 10-2

The Media and Politics III

HORSE RACE COVERAGE How the Media Makes things exciting

Horse Race Coverage What is it? What does it contain Why?

Type of Coverage in 2008 Primary

Horse Race Dominates 2008 General

DEBATES

Presidential Debates A Recent Phenomenon General Strategies Do not screw upscrew

Why Candidates Like these A chance for exposure A chance for Legitimacy A chance to move in the polls

Presidential Debates Who Wins (the leader in the polls) The Person who doesn’t make a mistake Does it matter?

Presidential Debates Win by not losing What don't you want to do? – The 1960 DebateDebate – Look ancientancient – Seem heartlessheartless – You are no Jack KennedyJack Kennedy – Eastern Europe is Free Eastern Europe is Free – The Global TestGlobal Test – Adm. James Stockdale Blind, Deaf, Dumb BlindDeafDumb

THE MEDIA STRATEGY

The Media Strategy Getting the Message Out – Paid Advertisements – Free Press You campaign for votes and you campaign for media by getting free coverage Avoid cannibalizing

Getting Free Press Having your message get covered by the media You can reach a wide audience and It is not costing you money This is fully mediated

Maximizing Free Coverage Create a package Convey a winning message Shape an Image

Maximizing Free Coverage Don’t Say too Much Repeat the Few Basic Points Bad Press is Bad Press

The Role of the Media Is an informal institution Is a linkage institution It is profit driven

The Media and Opinion Formation We are exposed to it constantly, but does it matter? Direct Effects model says it matters a lot

Indirect Effects Model Two-Step flow Model The Role of Elites

THE MINIMAL EFFECTS MODEL Does the media really matter

The Minimal Effects Model The Fall Campaign is not that important Most people have made up their mind

Spurious/Minimal effects model We do not seek out political information We have selective/exposure perception We rarely make major changes

Who is influenced the most Those with the least political attention Those without stable party identification Elections can swing if it is close

GATEKEEPING AND AGENDA SETTING

What the Media Does: Agenda Setting What is it Bring Matters to the forefront, or conceal them

Goals of Agenda Setting Make people aware of issues Make issue salient Set the priority of issues

Gatekeepers Key people who control what we watch Help to shape political priorities Driven by profit

What gatekeepers use The authority of the source The Amount of Controversy The importance

What gatekeepers use The authority of the source The Amount of Controversy The importance

WHERE WE GET OUR POLITICAL INFORMATION

Where we get Political Information

The Type of Media Matters Television is the most important The internet is the fastest, but has the most bias

We Would Rather Watch Mistakes Bad SushiSushi People Falling People A great collectioncollection

Newspapers and Magazines Newspapers – Provide more information and Detail – Very few cities have multiple papers anymore Magazines- vary in content and quality

The Decline of Old media

THE PRESIDENT AND THE MEDIA

The President Needs the Media Amplify his Message Coordinate the Message Try and set the Agenda

The President will try to Make News Make the media aware of what he is doing Generate news by the power of the office

The President Vs. The Media The President Create a favorable image of himself Push Positive News Minimize bad news The Media Report all news, especially that which will sell Try to get it out there first Set the agenda before the President

THE MEDIA AND CAMPAIGNS

Why a campaign? Minimal effects model says most people don’t switch Go after weak partisans and independents Make sure your base comes out

When are Campaigns Most important When we know nothing about the candidates There is no counter-information When the information is important

Why you try to get

Horse Race Coverage What is it? What does it contain Why?

Following The Polls

The keys to horse race coverage Polling Perception No issues

Component I: Categorizer Sorts the candidates into winners and losers Creates an Image for the candidate

Component II: Expectation Setter Puts odds on the candidates You want to be at the top… duh But it isn't as good as you might thinkthink

Component III: Mentioner You want the media to notice you Not all press is good press Mentions mean money and votes

Component IV:Winnowing The Press Winnows (narrows) down the candidates Attention is on Iowa and NH Frontloading is the results

Type of Coverage in 2008 Primary

Horse Race Dominates 2008 General

DEBATES

Presidential Debates A Recent Phenomenon General Strategies Do not screw upscrew

Why Candidates Like these A chance for exposure A chance for Legitimacy A chance to move in the polls

Presidential Debates Who Wins (the leader in the polls) The Person who doesn’t make a mistake Does it matter?

Presidential Debates Win by not losing What don't you want to do? – The 1960 DebateDebate – Look ancientancient – Seem heartlessheartless – You are no Jack KennedyJack Kennedy – Eastern Europe is Free Eastern Europe is Free – The Global TestGlobal Test – Adm. James Stockdale Blind, Deaf, Dumb BlindDeafDumb

THE MEDIA STRATEGY

The Media Strategy Getting the Message Out – Paid Advertisements – Free Press You campaign for votes and you campaign for media by getting free coverage Avoid cannibalizing

Getting Free Press Having your message get covered by the media You can reach a wide audience and It is not costing you money This is fully mediated

Maximizing Free Coverage Create a package Convey a winning message Shape an Image

Maximizing Free Coverage Don’t Say too Much Repeat the Few Basic Points Bad Press is Bad Press

POLITICAL ADVERTISING

Political Advertising Unmediated Protected by First Amendment Why So Popular?

Targeting Ads and their Effect Uncommitted voters vs Partisans When are they Most Effective? Ads are a sign of political viability

Why you try to get

Candidate Credibility We have to trust the messenger Issue Ownership Try to focus on your best issue

Getting More Votes Delivering a positive message about your candidate (mobilizing) Deliver a negative message about the opposition (mobilizing/demobilizing)

Biographical Ads Inform us about the Candidate Very important early in the campaign

Examples of Bio Ads We have Come A long Way since IkeIke Bio Ads in 2008 – Obama bio adbio – McCain bio adbio What you do not want to saywant to say

Issue Ads Focus on a specific issue or a policy area Associate yourself with favorable policies Do not mention issue weakness

Examples of Issue Ads The Bear in the Woods in 1984Bear Mike Huckabee and Chuck Norris...Chuck Norris Hillary Clinton- Attack/Issue AdAttack/Issue Ad The Herman Cain “Smoking” AdSmoking

Attack Ads The Norm Rather than the Exception The Mother of all Attack AdsMother

The Effect of Attack ads on voters Some voters become disenchanted and disaffected Your Base Loves them!

How Effective are these If they didn’t work, candidates wouldn’t run them The Lessons of 1988 – The Revolving DoorDoor – Willie HortonHorton

Why They Work and Who uses them more We don’t trust politicians They are more memorable and informativememorable Challengers and vulnerable incumbents use them

Do Not Give your Opponent Ammo Never go to a Playboy PartyPlayboy Party Don’t Drive a Tank with a big helmethelmet Gee, thanks a lot IKEIKE The Defining Sound bite of 2008Sound bite

How To Deal with them Defend the Charges – Kerry Flip-Flopping on the issuesFlip-Flopping – The Kerry RebuttalRebuttal Counterattack on the same issue or up the ante- The Puppy AdPuppy Attack the Credibility of your opponentCredibility

How not to deal with them Do Nothing – The Initial AdInitial – Swiftboats Swiftboats – Kerry’s rebuttal to swiftboats? If you get Punched in the nose, you must punch back

How the attack can backfire If you are seen as being too evil

Ads Can Backfire You do it too late to make a difference You bring a knife to a gun fight