Judgemental Topics in Actuarial Education and Research Jo Lo Getting Better Judgment Working Party 1 December 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

Judgemental Topics in Actuarial Education and Research Jo Lo Getting Better Judgment Working Party 1 December 2014

Progress Community Sessional Meetings Education Working parties Volunteering Research Shaping the future Networking Professional support Enterprise and risk Learned society Opportunity International profile Journals Supporting Expertise Sponsorship Thought leadership Background & Motivation 1 December 2014

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 It’s an important subject to practitioners

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Why do we care? Actuaries are responsible for recommending reserves, pricing, capital requirements, … … not only for what comes out of models 1 December Actuarial Output ModelJudgmentData

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 A Disturbing Example Biases abound in courtrooms Sentencing can depends on… –Before or after meal times –Irrelevant dice rolls 1 December

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Why should we care? Materially Biased Judgments Unreliable Numbers Wrong Business Decisions 1 December

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Cognitive heuristics and biases Small Sample Bias AnchoringOverconfidence Deliberate BiasAvailability Answering Easier Question Framing 1 December

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Model vs Judgment High research bias in model In practice both are important E.g. stochastic reserving

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Agenda Background & Motivation Recent Actuarial Studies Dedicated and Scientific Research Implications for Actuarial Education Conclusions 1 December

Progress Community Sessional Meetings Education Working parties Volunteering Research Shaping the future Networking Professional support Enterprise and risk Learned society Opportunity International profile Journals Supporting Expertise Sponsorship Thought leadership Recent Actuarial Studies General Insurance Viewpoint 1 December 2014

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Why Judgemental Research in GI? Vast amounts of research exist external to actuarial science –E.g. Kahnemann and Tversky Why should we bother? Their and others’ conclusions are vulnerable to various criticisms: –Subject matter relate to trivia rather than projecting into the future –Subjects are students and not practising professionals –Experimental conditions are not real- life enough – e.g. we could have time to think slow in reality –…–… 1 December

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Recent Attempts Practitioners: high level – raising awareness –Don Mango – GIRO 2012 –Phil Ellis & Clare Barley – GIRO 2013 –Graham Fulcher – The Actuary –Jo Lo, Ed Tredger & Bernadette Hlavka – The Actuary In more detail / empirical experiments: –Lo, Patel & Calder: Underwriters & Analysts –IFoA Getting Better Judgment Working Party –To come: ASTIN Working Party on Expert Judgment Actuarial academic research – a couple of papers in underwriter decision-making / pricing 1 December

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Progress Community Sessional Meetings Education Working parties Volunteering Research Shaping the future Networking Professional support Enterprise and risk Learned society Opportunity International profile Journals Supporting Expertise Sponsorship Thought leadership Dedicated and Scientific Research 1 December 2014

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 One particular method Actuarial scientific research dominated by a particular method –Axioms / Assumptions  Deductions Sets logical bounds –e.g. VaR diversfication / anti- diversification Allows organisation of data to meaningful statistics slickly 1 December

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Why are these formulas useful? 1 December

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Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Science has not always been like this 1 December Form reasonable hypotheses Design experiments to test hypotheses Implement experiments Reasonable conclusions join body of knowledge

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Which is “The Queen Science”? Social sciences, psychological research, management science, … Knowledge can still be progressed rigorously –Even if never with absolute certainty Judgemental research takes this approach Do not underestimate the power of social sciences! 1 December

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Example Methods Questionnaires –During seminars –Own time –Longer sessions 1 December In-depth Interviews

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Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Stories – rich source of data Collecting of “war stories” can also be important Survey suggests these could be a way forward for practitioners Could form bases for forming reasonable hypotheses to scientifically test 1 December

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Dedication Have enough time to perform research is critical for all stages Funding for both researcher and as incentives for subjects These recent attempts were not easy –Most difficult factor is that of time and funding –Both done on an “extracurricular” basis – both mainly by practitioners outside their job descriptions, on a volunteer basis –Funding limited for small prize like book and drink prizes 1 December

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Multi-disciplinary Approach “These are high risk projects” “Might someone else have done this research before” “I need to publish in journals with high rating” “Multi-disciplinary research very much encouraged and there is funding” “Let’s do good research and worry about journals afterwards” 1 December

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 It is very valid for actuarial scientists to engage in judgemental research! Could be scientifically rigorous Requires dedicated resource –And multi-disciplinary approach It is very relevant for practitioners –And have potential wide-ranging impact 1 December

Progress Community Sessional Meetings Education Working parties Volunteering Research Shaping the future Networking Professional support Enterprise and risk Learned society Opportunity International profile Journals Supporting Expertise Sponsorship Thought leadership Implications for Actuarial Education 1 December 2014

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Fit for purpose? Can we teach everything? Ready to serve the public interest, in a business environment? 1 December

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Updating with New Data – without training 1 December

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Updating with New Data – with training 1 December

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Actuarial Syllabus Very little mention of expert judgemental topics Two ways: –Could pepper judgemental issues throughout all technical courses –Could have another paper in the syllabus Communication: –Is there scope for this to be two-way communication? Study material / syllabus will require collaboration of practitioners and judgemental experts 1 December

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Actuarial Science B.Sc. / M.Sc. courses Most students do not go on to do Ph.D. research They want to find a job and be successful at it! 1 December “This is a soft skill learnt through on-the-job training” “A graduate who can demonstrate awareness working with experts stands at advantage to one who cannot”

Progress Community Sessional Meetings Education Working parties Volunteering Research Shaping the future Networking Professional support Enterprise and risk Learned society Opportunity International profile Journals Supporting Expertise Sponsorship Thought leadership Conclusions 1 December 2014

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Agenda Background & Motivation Recent Actuarial Studies Dedicated and Scientific Research Implications for Actuarial Education Conclusions 1 December

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Research – influential, multi-disciplinary – even if not risk-free 1 December “These are high risk projects” “Might someone else have done this research before” “I need to publish in journals with high rating” “Multi-disciplinary research very much encouraged and there is funding” “Let’s do good research and worry about journals afterwards”

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Education – working with expert judgement is an important skill to nurture 1 December Can we teach everything? Ready to serve the public interest, in a business environment? “This is a soft skill learnt through on-the-job training” “A graduate who can demonstrate awareness working with experts stands at advantage to one who cannot”

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Working Party Plans All planned interim conference presentations in 2014 have now been given Development and consolidation of ideas –Write up of paper – Mid 2015? 1 December

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Working party members We would love to hear from you! 1 December Working Party Members Sectors (Employers)Actuarial ActivitiesAt ATRC? Bernadette Hlavka London Market (Tokio Millennium Re) Pricing, capital Catherine ScullionPublic Sector (GAD) Pricing, fin. modelling and risk mgt. Ed TredgerConsultancy (UMACS)Capital, pricing, software Helen LauGeneral Insurance (Allianz)Capital Jo Lo (chair)London Market (Aspen) R&D, actuarial modelling, risk mgt. Yes Michael GarnerLondon Market (Atrium)Capital, reserving, pricing Nick BonelloLondon Market (ANV)Capital Sejal HariaRegulator (PRA) Risk mgt., fin. modelling, business strategy Steven FisherConsultancy (LCP)Capital, reserving

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R63 G69 B72 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 1 December Expressions of individual views by members of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and its staff are encouraged. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter. Questions Comments

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