10-2 Experimental Probability Warm Up Warm Up Lesson Presentation Lesson Presentation Problem of the Day Problem of the Day Lesson Quizzes Lesson Quizzes

10-2 Experimental Probability I can find experimental probability. 1. A jar contains 6 red, 8 blue, and 10 white marbles. Would you be more likely to pull out a red or a blue marble? Determine if the event is impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain. 2. Attendance at a city council meeting is at 100%. Mr. Lloyd is a council member. How likely is it that Mr. Lloyd is at the meeting? blue certain

10-2 Experimental Probability Problem of the Day The probability of Liana making a free throw was If she made 24 of her free throws, how many did she miss?

10-2 Experimental Probability I can find experimental probability.

10-2 Experimental Probability Vocabulary experimental probability

10-2 Experimental Probability Experimental probability is one way of estimating the probability of an event. The experimental probability of the event is found by comparing the number of times an event occurs to the total number of trials. The more trials you have, the more accurate the estimate is likely to be.

10-2 Experimental Probability

10-2 Experimental Probability During skating practice, Sasha landed 7 out of 12 jumps. What is the experimental probability that she will land her next jump? Additional Example 1: Sports Application P(event)  number of times an event occurs total number of trials Substitute data from the experiment = The experimental probability that Sasha will land her next jump is number of jumps landed number of jumps attempted P(jumps landed) 

10-2 Experimental Probability “P(event)” represents the probability that an event will occur. For example, the probability of a flipped coin landing heads up could be written as “P(heads).” Writing Math

10-2 Experimental Probability Check It Out: Example 1 During basketball practice, Martha made 9 out of 10 free throws. What is the experimental probability that she will make her next attempt? P(event)  number of times an event occurs total number of trials The experimental probability that Martha will make the next free throw is or 90% Substitute data from the experiment and write as a percent = = 90% P(free throws made)  number of free throws made number of free throws attempted

10-2 Experimental Probability Students have checked out 55 books from the library. Of these, 32 books are fiction. Additional Example 2A: Application What is the experimental probability that the next book checked out will be fiction? P(fiction)  number of fiction books checked out total number of books checked out  The experimental probability that the next book checked out will be fiction is approximately Substitute data.

10-2 Experimental Probability What is the experimental probability that Additional Example 2B: Application the next book checked out will be nonfiction? P(fiction) + P(nonfiction) = 1 The experimental probability that the next book checked out will be nonfiction is approximately Use the complement P(nonfiction) = – – P(nonfiction) = Substitute. Subtract from both sides Simplify.

10-2 Experimental Probability Check It Out: Example 2A Students have a fruit choice for lunch of an apple or a pear. So far 18 of 47 students have selected pears. What is the experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be a pear?  The experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be a pear is approximately Substitute data. P(pear)  number of pears selected total number of fruit selected

10-2 Experimental Probability Check It Out: Example 2B What is the experimental probability that next fruit selected will be an apple? P(pear) + P(apple) = 1 The experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be an apple is Use the complement P(apple) = – – P(apple) = Substitute. Subtract from both sides Simplify.

10-2 Experimental Probability Standard Lesson Quiz Lesson Quizzes Lesson Quiz for Student Response Systems

10-2 Experimental Probability Lesson Quiz 1. In a soccer shoot-out, Bryan made 4 out of 9 goals. What is the experimental probability that he will make the next shot? 2. It has rained on the last 2 out of 10 Fourth of July parades in Swanton. A. What is the experimental probability that it will rain on the Fourth of July parade this year? B. What is the experimental probability that it will not rain on the Fourth of July parade this year?

10-2 Experimental Probability 1. During a shot put practice session, Greg crossed the 70-foot mark in 15 out of 21 attempts. What is the experimental probability that he will cross the 70-foot mark in his next attempt? A. B. C. D. Lesson Quiz for Student Response Systems

10-2 Experimental Probability 2. Simon is practicing basketball. He made 33 of 42 free throws he attempted. What is the experimental probability that we will make his next free throw? A. B. C. D. Lesson Quiz for Student Response Systems

10-2 Experimental Probability 3. Rachel found that 20 out of 48 cars that entered a parking lot were red. What is the experimental probability that the next car that comes in is red? What is the experimental probability that the next car that comes in is not red? A. B. C. D. Lesson Quiz for Student Response Systems