Michael Dunlop, P Ryan, H Parris, R Wise, R Gorddard, M Colloff, … CLIMATE LAND & WATER Adaptation Pathways Re-thinking conservation in the face of transformational climate change Conservation Council ACT Region – September 2015

Recovery Stabilisation Runaway Stafford Smith et al Completely different Not much difference Ferrier et al

Change (“Climate mitigation”) Future - preferred Future - undesired Current state 1. Magnitude of ecological impacts Reduce loss Resilience

2. Uncertainty in the detail of ecological changes Future 1 - preferred Future 1 - undesired Current state Future 2 - preferred Future 2 - undesired Future 3 - preferred Future 3 - undesired

People experience and value different dimensions of biodiversity Species: types and variety of life Ecosystems: quality, function and services Landscapes: amount of nature

3. Explicitly consider multiple valued dimensions of biodiversity

Conservation objectives workshop 7 | Climate-ready framing Strategies must accommodate: 1.Large magnitude of ecological change, and significant loss. 2.Considerable uncertainty in the detail of ecological changes. 3.Different impacts on multiple valued aspects of biodiversity. Climate-ready = accommodate 1, 2, 3 … and move away from the static equivalents

Conservation objectives workshop 8 | Review of strategic conservation documents 26 documents International, National, State, Regional, Local, NGO Case studies Four agencies Decision making Barriers and enablers Sample the climate readiness of Australian conservation as a whole. Are our current approaches conservation climate ready? 

Current approach Environmental change NowFuture Future approach Adaptation

Conservation objectives workshop 10 | Prototype climate-ready objectives 1.Reduce species extinction, as species populations change in abundance and distribution 2.Maintain ecosystem health, as ecosystems change in type, composition, structure, function 3.Maintain a balance between human and natural processes in landscapes, as types of ecosystems and land/water uses change Need refining

Current approach Adaptation Environmental change NowFuture Future approach

Current approach Adaptation Environmental and social change NowFuture Future approach Adaptation Adaptation pathway Values Rules Knowledge

Challenges for adapting conservation Adaptation in undertaken by people, in agencies with multiple incentives and mandates, supported by the community Concepts and language are challenging Significant ecological, social and institutional innovation: Robust concepts, that reflect value, and readily codified Ecosystem and Landscapes: What aspects are valued (separating inevitable change)? How do we measure (and predict) them? How do we incentivise their conservation?

CLIMATE LAND & WATER Thank you Michael Dunlop T

Current objectives and management Adaptation Environmental and social change NowFuture Climate-ready objectives and future management Actions to enable future adaptation Adaptation Being flexible and strategic about the timing of adaptation Climate-ready objectives Alternative change futures and Pathways of options Society determines which physically feasible options are actually available (value, rules, knowledge) Removing barriers to adaptation