Conservation Action Planning Process Target Viability/Integrity: An Iterative Process

What is “viability”? Viability Viability of a conservation target is the measure to which the target is……. resistant to change in its structure and composition in the face of external stresses and What is Viability? resilient – able to recover upon experiencing occasional severe stress

Why Assess Viability? (1)To clearly define targets (esp. ecological systems) (2)Science-based foundation for establishing current status of a target and setting desired future condition (goals) (3)Helps to identify stresses to the ecological integrity of each target and understand with more precision how these threats disrupt the target (4)Assists in developing good objectives and focused strategies (5)Guides the design of monitoring protocol and measures of success (6)Helps identify critical knowledge gaps about the system

Viability analysis has three steps Step One. Define Key Ecological Attributes Step two. Identify indicators of status of these Attributes Step three. Rank the indicators

Select: KEY ECOLOGICAL ATTRIBUTES Aspects of the conservation target (species, community or ecological system) that clearly define or characterize the target and determine its distribution and variation over space and time. Characteristics of the target, that if eliminated or significantly altered, would result in the demise of the target or would shift it into something quite different. Step One

Characteristics of Conservation Targets – assigned to categories of…… Size Area or abundance Minimum dynamic area Size Area or abundance Minimum dynamic area Condition Composition (e.g., native vs. nonnative) Structure (e.g., age) Biotic Interactions (e.g., reproduction) Condition Composition (e.g., native vs. nonnative) Structure (e.g., age) Biotic Interactions (e.g., reproduction) Landscape Context Dominant environmental regimes (e.g. fire, hydrology) Connectivity (e.g., access to habitats/resources, ability to disperse, migrate, re-colonize) Landscape Context Dominant environmental regimes (e.g. fire, hydrology) Connectivity (e.g., access to habitats/resources, ability to disperse, migrate, re-colonize)

Focal Target Category Key Attribute Mangrove Forest SizeHabitat Size KEA for Mangrove Forest

Focal Target Category Key Attribute Coral ReefCondition Presence of Invasive species KEA for Coral Reef

Tips for Selecting Key Ecological Attributes Pick factors that are critical for long-term viability… Characteristics, if degraded, would seriously jeopardize the target’s ability to persist for 100+ years? When in doubt, pick characteristics that can be or are likely to be affected by human activities Look for a few really key ecological attributes … versus many desirable or descriptive characteristics Key Ecological Attributes are what’s important……. Pick factors that are critical for long-term viability… Characteristics, if degraded, would seriously jeopardize the target’s ability to persist for 100+ years? When in doubt, pick characteristics that can be or are likely to be affected by human activities Look for a few really key ecological attributes … versus many desirable or descriptive characteristics Key Ecological Attributes are what’s important…….

Indicators are measurable aspects of the Key Ecological Attribute that inform us of its status or “health” Second Step: Select Indicators Indicators are what you measure Key Attribute: Circulatory systemIndicator: Blood pressure

Focal Target Category Key Attribute Indicator Mangrove Forest SizeHabitat Size % of original forest Indicator for Mangrove Forest

Focal Target Category Key Attribute Indicator Coral ReefCondition Presence of Invasive species Crown of thorns on reef Indicator for Coral Reef

Look for indicators that... Strongly relate to the status of the key ecological attribute Are efficient & affordable to measure Where you can reasonably define what constitutes “Good” Desirable indicators... – Might provide an early warning to serious stresses – Might assess two or more key ecological attributes e.g. Presence of young cypress in a floodplain forest as an indicator for both hydrological regime & reproduction of dominant species

Indicator Ratings Bold=Current Italics=Desired Focal Target Category Key Attribute IndicatorPoorFairGood Very Good Target name - Size - Condition - Landscape Context Key Attribute AIndicator 1 Criteria for Poor Criteria for Fair Criteria for Good Criteria for Very Good Very Good: Ecologically desirable status; Requires little intervention for maintenance Fair: Outside acceptable range of variation; Requires human intervention Good: Indicator w/in acceptable range of variation; Some intervention required for maintenance Poor: Restoration increasingly difficult; May result in extirpation Step Three: “Ranking” Target Viability

Indicator Ratings Bold=Current Italics=Desired Focal Target Category Key Attribute IndicatorPoorFairGood Very Good Mangrove Forest SizeHabitat Size % of original forest < > 75 Viability Ratings for Mangrove Forest

Indicator Ratings Bold=Current Italics=Desired Focal Target Category Key Attribute IndicatorPoorFairGood Very Good Coral ReefCondition Presence of Invasive species Crown of thorns on reef LotsFewNone Viability Ratings for Coral Reef

CONDITION SIZE LANDSCAPE CONTEXT CONDITION SIZE LANDSCAPE CONTEXT Target A Viability Target B Viability Target C Viability Target D Viability Biodiversity Health or Landscape Functionality Overall “Picture” of Project Viability

Final Product: Target Viability Summary

Conducting the Assessment An iterative process with “successive approximations” Begin with a “credible first iteration” -- your first approximation Identify really key ecological attributes for each focal target (maybe one each for size, condition and landscape context) Determine what you’ll measure for each attribute – indicator Discuss and describe what would constitute a “good” status Rate the “Current Status” for each attribute, based on informed expert opinion + available information Present your initial findings to colleagues/experts for review

Focal Target CategoryKey AttributeIndicator Current Status Landscape Context Example - 1st Pass Grassland focal target identified Fire regime = Key Attribute (Landscape Context) Fire frequency = Indicator Dense woody cover suggests not enough fire Current status deemed not viable - assigned “Fair” Fair Grassland Target Fire regimeFire frequency

Indicator Ratings Bold=Current Italics=Desired Focal Target CategoryKey AttributeIndicatorPoorFairGoodVery Good grassland - Type X Landscape Context fire regimefire frequency not enough fire 1st Pass - table 1 st pass results in Indicator Rating table

Indicator Ratings Bold=Current Italics=Desired Focal Target CategoryKey AttributeIndicatorPoorFairGoodVery Good grassland - Type X Landscape Context fire regimefire frequency not enough fire grassland - Type X Landscape Context fire regimefire frequency > 10 years 5-10 years Phone call to local grassland expert indicates natural fire frequency of 5-10 years. 2nd Pass

Indicator Ratings Bold=Current Italics=Desired Focal Target CategoryKey AttributeIndicatorPoorFairGoodVery Good grassland - Type X Landscape Context fire regimefire frequency not enough fire grassland - Type X Landscape Context fire regimefire frequency > 10 years 5-10 years grassland - Type X Landscape Context fire regime % grassland with 5-10 yr fire return <25%25-50%51-75%>75% % of the area that is burned at acceptable frequency deemed important Decision made > 50% of area = viable or key attribute = “Good” Current status is < 50% is burned at this interval 3rd Pass

Indicator Ratings Bold=Current Italics=Desired Focal Target CategoryKey AttributeIndicatorPoorFairGoodVery Good grassland - Type X Landscape Context fire regimefire frequency not enough fire grassland - Type X Landscape Context fire regimefire frequency > 10 years 5-10 years grassland - Type X Landscape Context fire regime % grassland with 5-10 yr fire return <25%25-50%51-75%>75% The project team could have settled on any one of these 3 alternatives as part of their initial CAP plan Flexible level of detail 1 2 3

Indicator Ratings Bold=Current Italics=Desired Focal Target CategoryKey AttributeIndicatorPoorFairGoodVery Good grassland - Type X Size Size/extent of characteristic communities / ecosystems aerial extent in acres > 100,000 acres How important is it to fill out all ratings in this case where Current & Desired status is Very Good? Probably Not Important! - Unless grassland area is threatened by large-scale habitat destruction. - In this case, determining the Fair rating might guide efforts to determine how much to save Incomplete is OK!

General Guidance View main purpose as capturing the current state of knowledge Don’t worry about information gaps Don’t focus on filling out all indicator ratings Can return during later planning stages to add more detail (if necessary) Accept uncertainty!

Indicator Ratings Bold=Current Italics=Desired Category Key AttributeIndicatorPoorFairGood Very Good Landscape Context Availability of medium to large trees for nesting Number of large trees low density of large trees high density of large trees ConditionNatural predation (e.g. by Red-tailed Hawk & Yellow Boa) Nest predation between March and July >50% of nests predated 10-50% of nests predated <10% of nests predated SizePopulation sizeNumber of individuals per sample point decrease from Davis' 2001 baseline >= from Davis' 2001 baseline ConditionPopulation structureFledging rates (use predator monitoring data): number of successful nests Very good SizeAvailability of large forest blocks for population refuges Average Block Size measured from satellite imagery or aerial photography (every 5 yrs) Decreasing average block size increasing average block size A Reasonable First Pass Example Target: Black-billed and Yellow-billed Parrots – Cockpit Country

Select one target from your project area. Develop key ecological attributes Identify one indicator for each key ecological attribute Develop indicator rating criteria for one indicator (based on your collective expert opinion) –Define “good” and the current status Qualitative ratings are OK! (e.g. “Lots of in-stream barriers”, “not enough fire” etc.) Breakout Group Instructions: Viability Assessment Task

What are the key attributes you selected? Why is each attribute “key” for the target? Which key ecological attributes did you select indicators for? What indicators were selected? Which indicator did you develop rating criteria for? How confident are you in your rating? Very Briefly Report Back: Breakout Group Instructions: Viability Assessment

What follows are a set of additional examples you might want to substitute in the presentation for your use. Or you might want to use an example from a previous project you have worked on.

Focal Target CategoryKey AttributeIndicator Current Status Example - 1 st Pass American eel focal target identified Population size & dynamics = Key Attribute (size) Number of adult (silver) eel harvested = Indicator Few mature (silver) eels caught by fisherman during out-migration. Current status deemed not viable - assigned “Fair” Fair Diadromous fish Size Population size & dynamics # of adult (silver) eel harvested

Indicator Ratings Bold=Current Italics=Desired Focal Target CategoryKey AttributeIndicatorPoorFairGoodVery Good Diadromous Fish Size Population size & dynamics Number of adult (silver) eel harvested No eels caught during out migration Few mature eels caught during out- migration 1 st Pass - table 1 st pass results within Indicator Rating table

2 nd Pass Indicator Ratings Bold=Current Italics=Desired Focal Target CategoryKey AttributeIndicatorPoorFairGoodVery Good Diadromous fish Size Population size & dynamics # of adult (silver) eel harvested No eels caught during outmigrati on Few mature eels caught during outmigration Diadromous fish Size Population size & dynamics # of adult (silver) eels harvested/night < 1,000 lbs/night >1,000 lbs/night Conversation with local eel expert indicates silver eel harvest used cover the bottom of weirs with eels, approx 1,000 lbs a night.

3 rd Pass Indicator Ratings Bold=Current Italics=Desired Focal Target CategoryKey AttributeIndicatorPoorFairGoodVery Good Diadromous fish Size Population size & dynamics # of adult (silver) eel harvested No eels caught during out- migration Few mature eels caught during out- migration Diadromous fish Size Population size & dynamics # of adult (silver) eels harvested/night < 1,000 lbs/night >1,000 lbs/night Diadromous fish Size Population size & dynamics % fish biomass < 25% 25 – 35%35 – 50% > 50% % of fish biomass deemed to be important Decision made > 35% biomass = viable KEA = “Good”

Flexible level of detail >1,000 lbs/night < 1,000 lbs/night # of adult (silver) eels harvested/night Population size & dynamics Size Diadromous fish > 50% 35 – 50%25 – 35% < 25% % fish biomass Population size & dynamics Size Diadromous fish Few mature eels caught during out- migration No eels caught during out- migration # of adult (silver) eel harvested Population size & dynamics Size Diadromous fish Very GoodGoodFairPoorIndicatorKey AttributeCategory Focal Target Indicator Ratings Bold=Current Italics=Desired The project team could have settled on any one of these 3 alternatives as part of their initial CAP plan

Indicator Ratings Bold=Current Italics=Desired Focal Target CategoryKey AttributeIndicatorPoorFairGood Very Good Catches from the Sea From Viability assessment in Indonesian village Catches from the Sea identified as a focal target for fish caught for local consumption and sale Key attribute & indicator selected Fisherman observe that catch is much less than they remember in recent times Current status considered not viable (Fair) X Population size Fish catch per day Size

Indicator Ratings Bold=Current Italics=Desired Focal Target CategoryKey AttributeIndicatorPoorFairGood Very Good Catches from the Sea SizePopulation size fish catch per day catch = strings of fish From Viability assessment in Indonesian village Interviews indicate current harvest < 30 strings of fish Ten years ago, harvest yielded up to 200 strings of fish > 100 considered Very Good considered Good > 100 strings of fish strings of fish

Size/Minimum Dynamic Area Acres (000’s)

Final Product: Target Viability Summary

Key Ecological Attributes –Critical component of target’s life history, physical or biological processes, composition, structure –Clearly define target –Limit its distribution –Determine its natural variation over space and time –On a time scale of years Viability Indicators –Measurable entities used to assess the status of Key Ecological Attribute(s). Indicator Rating Categories –Criteria to enable objective status assessments Viability Assessment: Fundamentals