New concepts and ideas in air pollution strategies Richard Ballaman Chairman of the Working Group on Strategies and Review

Future challenges Accession to protocols by as many Parties as possible Effective implementation of Protocols by EECCA countries Further reduction of emissions: NH 3, NO x, VOC, SO 2, HMs and POPs Derive new and lower NECs Good cooperation on transatlantic or hemispheric issues: Hg, O 3, PM and POPs

What remains to be done ? Reduce acidification, especially from NH 3 Decrease eutrophication (N deposition) Limit violations of AOT40 CL to avoid vegetation damage Decrease O 3 as significant cause of premature death Decrease population exposure to PM

Health & environmental impact (RAINS_BL_CLE, August 2004, C. Agren)

Acid deposition to forests (IIASA) Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Excess of critical loads for eutrophication (IIASA) Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations AOT40 [ppm.hours] (IIASA) Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Premature deaths attributable to ozone [cases/year] (IIASA) Provisional calculations with 50X50 km resolution

Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] (IIASA) Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Source: RAINS / IIASA

What can be done ? Use PM health effects as driving force to further reduce emissions of primary and secondary pollutants Identify the potential for new technical measures (define BAT to derive ELV) Make use of synergies to abate air pollution and avoid climate change Consider structural changes and alternative energy policies

Acidification Eutrophication Tropospheric ozone Multi pollutants / multi effects approach with new pollutants and additional problems SO 2 NH 3 NO x NMVOC Climate change Particulate matter Population exposure CO CH 4 CO 2 N 2 O primary PM HMs POPs

Acidification Eutrophication Tropospheric ozone Multi pollutants / multi effects approach: extended version with new avenues for action SO 2 NH 3 NO x NMVOC Climate change Particulate matter Population exposure CO CH 4 CO 2 N 2 O primary PM HMsPOPs

Emissions 1990 – 2020 (RAINS BL_ CLE, Aug. 04)

Source categories to further consider Ships, diesel vehicles, off-road sector Industrial processes, solvents Small combustion (wood burning) Agriculture (animal housing, manure storage and spreading) Retrofitting of existing sources Increased use of alternative fuels (fuel switching)

Relevance of sources will change Cattle number  EF per veh.  Diesel engines  Aviation   Shipping  Milk productivity per animal  NH 3 emissions  Road traffic (driven mileage)  Total emissions  PM  NOx  Total emissions 

WHO European Centre for Environment and Health Source: Pope et al, JAMA 2002 Long term exposure to PM and risk of mortality in ACS cohort TFH 2003: “..apply the relative risk for all cause mortality… in the extended American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort study Pope et al. (2002).”

Possible challenges beyond 2010 Increase life expectancy of European population by at least 6 months Reduce by 50% remaining excess of acidification and eutrophication Contribute to the avoidance of climate change by reducing O 3 and PM concentrations, as well as abatement of CH 4 and CO emissions on a regional scale