1 Breakout Notes Session 3 Group 2 – (Global/Broad Scale/Regional) Integrated assessment models (socio-economic/biophysical) in relationship to land cover and land use change and carbon (High/S- L) e.g, Related to social economics to science and use framework to project into the future Drivers to socio-economic population, economics, technology, land tenure, land use policies Include other information; e.g., culture

2 Breakout Notes Session 3 Group 2 – (Global/Broad Scale/Regional) Integrated assessment models (socio-economic/biophysical) in relationship to land cover and land use change and carbon (High/S- >L) (CONTINUE) Need to define a scale to integrate science and socio-economic: aim for eco- region for example Macro level approach, drivers list should be short Management intensity is an outcome Broad vegetation types Evaluation with data Decision making in land use process; test policy options Policy drives the socio-economic and ecosystem Time-scale: annual to decadal

3 Breakout Notes Various components of the IAM work at the different time scale Policy is made at a local level and state, how does it work into a larger scale model Upscaleing and downscaling What are the scales that make sense? global market which forces interactions from one region to another

4 Breakout Notes Forest management, Agricultural Management, Grazing Management etc. Management decision that changes land cover Fire management, urbanization, agricultural, etc. Account for edge effect/fragmentation in modeling Human decision based models Make IAM models dynamic Current policies may not be applied to future decisions Drastic changes – climate change, disaster, etc., influence land

5 Breakout Notes Biophysical and carbon cycle model that can incorporate into socioeconomic models. How can we make a biophysical model that can feed into socio-economic Optimization models output feeds into biophysical models Agent based modeling and tie to a model that describes landscape Know how human behaviors influence models Bring modules that account different disciplines together (e.g., fire spread modeling, lVLUC (LANDIS2, SELES, etc.) that can couple with decision making models. (Not Global) Remote sensing data provide important information, but can not be used to project the future can be used to hind-cast (for validation of model). Human patterns can be explained using remote sensing – 37 yrs of data. Impact of biofuels; land cost, operation cost, biophysical effects (still experimenting) so hard to use at a global scale.

6 Breakout Notes What is needed to integrate observations and couple carbon and land use/land cover models? Remote sensing not being used enough in models Dynamics of long term not being captured Set up an experiment with management and look at the long term Socio-economic: discussed earlier Biophysical: soil survey, above ground and below ground nutrients Common base set of models for evaluation – Very important, Move towards a set of community models, use a common database (define uncertainties) Design models that can take advantage of available datasets; for validation, derive parameters, drivers; Independent Validation - try to avoid using the same datasets to drive and validate models. Work on getting observations available to models in formats that are usable Developing Data integration tools that can be used by the modelers Inconsistency with models and data

7 Research Questions – Session 3 Research question/topicPriorityMaturity

9 CHARGE The goal of the breakout groups is to –define and prioritize research questions to help guide the US Global Change Research Program, –determine the relative priorities of the research questions, and –designate whether research priorities are sufficiently mature for short-term research or are more long-term in scope.

10 Breakout #3 Questions What are the key land use/land management processes that need to be represented? How do we integrate models at multiple scales? What is needed to integrate observations and couple carbon and land use/land cover models?