SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium Consider, identify and describe any negative indirect impacts of the visions you develop? The Distopian Vision! Economic incentive to have privatized autonomous vehicles vs. public autonomous systems (We can sell more vehicles, former automakers and mobility specialists say!!!) Increasing mobility and access increases Sprawl. Sprawl will Grow! Suburbanization is supported and more land can be engaged to support regional economy

SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium Consider, identify and describe any negative indirect impacts of the visions you develop? The Distopian Vision! Urban Areas will be consumed by traffic as roadway throughput at destinations will be overwhelmed by vehicle loads.

SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium Consider, identify and describe any negative indirect impacts of the visions you develop? The Distopian Vision! People do not want to share disgusting vehicles! (cleaning will be a public policy problem with shared vehicles)

SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium Consider, identify and describe any negative indirect impacts of the visions you develop? The Distopian Vision! Door-to-door Automated travel will destroy non-destination incidental en- route retail. Our downtowns will die!

SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium Consider, identify and describe any negative indirect impacts of the visions you develop? The Distopian Vision! All our city centers will be fenced to keep pedestrians from interfering with flow of automated vehicles

SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium Consider, identify and describe any negative indirect impacts of the visions you develop? The Distopian Vision! People will live-in motorhome vehicles and cruise downtown cores to avoid urban housing costs Poverty commutes are better because people can sleep en-route

SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium Consider, identify and describe any negative indirect impacts of the visions you develop? The Distopian Vision! We do a whole bunch of new activities in our autonomous vehicles - Work - Sleep - Board Games - Technology Entertainment - Conceive Babies - Windows are not necessary – so Drug Use and Manufacture proliferates

SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium Evaluate alternative visions against the following criteria: Accessibility, equity, health capital costs, operation and maintenance costs, and GHG and criteria emissions? Poorer Health Outcomes (people do not have to walk as much with point to point delivery systems)

SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium Evaluate alternative visions against the following criteria: Accessibility, equity, health capital costs, operation and maintenance costs, and GHG and criteria emissions? Economic Jobs Lost: - Bus Drivers - Taxi Drivers - Truck Drivers - Ambulence Drivers - Body Repair Capacity volume increase on Freeways, clogging urban core destinations Incidence traffic will be reduced

SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium What policies, programs and infrastructure are necessary to avoid these visions? POTENTIAL GOVERNMENT RESPONSES: Specify infrastructure to shared autonomous vehicle use.

SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium What policies, programs and infrastructure are necessary to avoid these visions? POTENTIAL GOVERNMENT RESPONSES: Charge VMT In urban areas install dynamic pricing “EZPass” monitoring on a block by block tolling basis to limit cruising congestion. To avoid fencing our downtowns, force hard speed limits to create shared spaces of 5mph. Conversely, allow 145mph for automated vehicles on dedicated freeway infrastructure

SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium What policies, programs and infrastructure are necessary to avoid these visions? POTENTIAL GOVERNMENT RESPONSES: In Urban Areas, convert Urban Roadway Capacity (Broadway) Contract capacity for single occupancy vehicles

SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium What policies, programs and infrastructure are necessary to avoid these visions? POTENTIAL GOVERNMENT RESPONSES: Requirements to reserve slots in traffic flow, like now done at high- capacity airports Contract capacity for single occupancy vehicles Require Dedicated Lanes for HOV and limit Single Occupancy Vehicles (encouraging slugging and “casual carpooling”) Require Cleaner Vehicles to mitigate additional VMT

SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium What can be done between to curb the growth in vehicle travel and congestion? Most Benefits come from Shared, (Public) Solutions

SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014