Generation Technologies in a Carbon-constrained World The Power Conference ‘06 Houston June 29, 2006 Steve Specker President & CEO.

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Presentation transcript:

Generation Technologies in a Carbon-constrained World The Power Conference ‘06 Houston June 29, 2006 Steve Specker President & CEO

2 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Objective Provide an objective and factual framework for discussing generation technologies and investment decisions in a carbon-constrained world

3 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Framework Overview Levelized cost of electricity –Standard EPRI methodology –2004 costs and $’s Two key uncertainties –Future “cost” of CO 2 –Future price of natural gas Two technology portfolios –2010 time-period –2020 time-period

4 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Pulverized Coal in 2010 Time Period Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh PC w/o cap

5 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Natural Gas Combined Cycle in 2010 Time Period Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh

6 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Comparative Costs of 2010 Generating Options Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh PC w/o cap $6/mmbtu will be used as floor price for natural gas

7 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle in Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh PC w/o cap IGCC w/o cap

8 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Wind Generation in 2010 Time Period Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 110

9 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. U.S. Wind Plant Capacity Factors, Sites Ranked by Increasing Capacity Factors Capacity Factor, % Source: EIA; EPRI Program 67 Newsletter, Energy Markets and Generation Response – Update on New Power Plants, September 2005

10 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Wind Generation in 2010 Time Period Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 110

11 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh Wind Nuclear Biomass Non-CO 2 Emitting Technologies in 2010 Time Period

12 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Comparative Costs of 2010 Generating Options Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh CF Nuclear PC w/o cap IGCC w/o cap Biomass

13 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. What’s Possible in © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

14 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Pulverized Coal w/o Capture Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh PC w/o cap 2020 PC w/o cap 2010

15 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. IGCC w/o Capture Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh IGCC w/o cap 2010 IGCC, w/o cap 2020

16 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. PC with capture/transport/storage Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh PC w/o cap 2020 PC w/cap/t/s 2020

17 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. IGCC with capture/transport/storage Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh IGCC, w/o cap 2020 IGCC w/cap/t/s 2020

18 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Comparison of IGCC and PC Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh IGCC, w/o cap 2020 IGCC w/cap/t/s 2020 PC w/cap/t/s 2020 PC w/o cap 2020

19 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Comparison of IGCC and PC (2020) Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh IGCC w/o cap IGCC w/cap PC with capture PC w/o cap Cost Gap Reducing Cost of PC CO2 capture is a key technology challenge

20 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Natural Gas Combined Cycle Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh (2010) (2020)

21 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Wind Generation Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh CF in 2020 CF in 2010

22 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Biomass Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh Biomass Biomass 2020

23 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Comparative Costs in Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh Nuclear Wind Biomass IGCC w/cap/t/s PC w/cap/t/s

24 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Comparative Costs in Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh CF Nuclear PC w/o cap IGCC w/o cap Biomass

25 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. What’s Possible: Comparative Costs in Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh Nuclear Wind Biomass IGCC w/cap/t/s PC w/cap/t/s An Extraordinary Opportunity to Develop a Low-carbon Portfolio

26 © 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Closing Thoughts Four key uncertainties impacting near-term decisions on new generation: –Future cost of CO 2 –Future price of natural gas –Spent nuclear fuel storage –CO 2 capture and storage Extraordinary opportunity to develop and demonstrate a very low emissions portfolio of generation technologies for operation by Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity