ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 RT5: Evaluation Objective:comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

EURO4M: European Reanalysis and Observations for Monitoring

Advertisements

RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg September 2004 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Meeting Hamburg - September 2004 RT6 Assessments of impacts of climate change Andy Morse,

ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, November 2007 Potential WP Participants (known absentees underlined): DJF, DISAT, FMI, FUB, LUND,

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and.

EEA Report – The Alps Water-tower of Europe Vital ecosystem services

European Reanalysis and Observations for Monitoring EURO4M: European Reanalysis and Observations for Monitoring EU-project, April 2010 – March 2014, 9.

The new German project KLIWEX-MED: Changes in weather and climate extremes in the Mediterranean basin Andreas Paxian, University of Würzburg MedCLIVAR.

WRMA-WMO-World Bank-WFP Expert Meeting, Geneva, Dec KNMI servicing the market

EURANDOM & KNMI, May 2009 Analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation

WP5.4 Evaluation of extreme events in observational and RCM data Institute of Environmental Research & Sustainable Development National Observatory of.

Lucinda Mileham, Dr Richard Taylor, Dr Martin Todd

Progress in Downscaling Climate Change Scenarios in Idaho Brandon C. Moore.

Status of the RCM climate change simulations. ERA40 driven MPIM-RCM.

RT6 RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings ENSEMBLES Meetings RT3 Copenhagen, RT4/RT5 Paris, February 2005 RT6 Assessments of impacts of climate.

Linking probabilistic climate scenarios with downscaling methods for impact studies Dr Hayley Fowler School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences University.

1 Une description statistique multi-variable des nuages au dessus de l’océan tropical à partir des observations de jour de l’A-train en haute résolution.

NCPP – needs, process components, structure of scientific climate impacts study approach, etc.

Page 1GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 ENSEMBLES. Page 2GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 The ENSEMBLES Project  Began 4 years ago, will end in December 2009  Supported by.

Nynke Hofstra and Mark New Oxford University Centre for the Environment Trends in extremes in the ENSEMBLES daily gridded observational datasets for Europe.

Climate Forecasting Unit Second Ph’d training talk Prediction of climate extreme events at seasonal and decadal time scale Aida Pintó Biescas.

Update on EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX Filippo Giorgi Abdus Salam ICTP CORDEX-SAT1, Trieste, May, 2014.

Climate Forecasting Unit Prediction of climate extreme events at seasonal and decadal time scale Aida Pintó Biescas.

South Eastern Latin America LA26: Impact of GC on coastal areas of the Rio de la Plata: Sea level rise and meteorological effects LA27: Building capacity.

Recent developments in seasonal forecasting at French NMS Michel Déqué Météo-France, Toulouse.

VALUE WG2 Benchmark data set & pseudo-reality (year 1-2) Report, Trieste Meeting Sep.12 Sven Kotlarski, José Gutiérrez.

Page 1 Met Office contribution to RL5 Task ‘Large-scale interactions between atmospheric moisture and water availability - coupling of atmospheric.

Development of a downscaling prediction system Liqiang Sun International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)

Climate data sets: introduction two perspectives: A. What varieties of data are available? B. What data helps you to identify...

STARDEX STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes for European regions A project within the EC 5th Framework Programme EVK2-CT

Gridding Daily Climate Variables for use in ENSEMBLES Malcolm Haylock, Climatic Research Unit Nynke Hofstra, Mark New, Phil Jones.

Downscaling and its limitation on climate change impact assessments Sepo Hachigonta University of Cape Town South Africa “Building Food Security in the.

Climate change effects on extreme precipitation in Morocco Yves Tramblay, Luc Neppel, Eric Servat HydroSciences Montpellier, UMR 5569 (CNRS-IRD-UM1-UM2),

Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 ENSEMBLES Kick-off Meeting Dave Griggs, Director Hadley Centre, 15 September 2004.

Climate Change Scenarios for Agriculture Sam Gameda and Budong Qian Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Ottawa,

European Climate Assessment CCl/CLIVAR ETCCDMI meeting Norwich, UK November 2003 Albert Klein Tank KNMI, the Netherlands.

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Elisa Manzini.

Multi-Model: Synthesis Cornerstone for scenarios of CH2018 Build on past experience, consistency with CH2011 or reasons why not Many parts build on it,

Data collation for the ENSEMBLES grid Lisette Klok KNMI EU-FP6 project: Ensemble-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts.

Using satellite data to understand uncertainties in reanalyses: UERRA Richard Renshaw, Peter Jermey with thanks to Jörg Trentmann, Jennifer Lenhardt, Andrea.

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Antonio Navarra / Elisa Manzini.

Federal Departement of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Revisiting Swiss temperature trends * Paulo.

KNMI contribution to and SPECS Jules Beersma. Euporias kick-off, Barcelona, 6-8 November Jules BeersmaWP 2.1 Albert Klein Tank WP 2.2 & 4.2 Gé VerverWP.

1 RT3, Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Model Ensembles for Europe J.H. Christensen (DMI) M. Rummukainen (SMHI) B. van den Hurk (KNMI)

European Climate Assessment & possible role of the CHR ‘Workshop and Expert Meeting on Climatic Changes and their Effect on Hydrology and Water Management.

Ryan N. Maue Research Meteorologist WeatherBELL Analytics October 30, 2015 Global Tropical Cyclones.

John Mejia and K.C. King, Darko Koracin Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 4th NARCCAP Workshop, Boulder, CO, April,

STARDEX STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes for European regions A project within the EC 5th Framework Programme EVK2-CT

The observational dataset most RT’s are waiting for: the WP5.1 daily high-resolution gridded datasets HadGHCND – daily Tmax Caesar et al., 2001 GPCC -

“Building the daily observations database for the European Climate Assessment” KNMI.nl CLARIS meeting, 7 july 2005.

Copernicus Observations Requirements Workshop, Reading Requirements from agriculture applications Nadine Gobron On behalf Andrea Toreti & MARS colleagues.

The ENSEMBLES high- resolution gridded daily observed dataset Malcolm Haylock, Phil Jones, Climatic Research Unit, UK WP5.1 team: KNMI, MeteoSwiss, Oxford.

Correcting monthly precipitation in 8 RCMs over Europe Blaž Kurnik (European Environment Agency) Andrej Ceglar, Lucka Kajfez – Bogataj (University of Ljubljana)

Climatological Extremes 13 November 2002 Albert Klein Tank KNMI, the Netherlands acknowledgements: 37 ECA-participants (Europe & Mediterranean)

HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany HYDROCARE Actions 2.1Compilation of Meteorological Observations, 2.2Analysis of Variability.

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center Dr. Lee Tryhorn NOAA Climate Literacy Workshop April 2010 NOAA Northeast Regional Climate.

Regional Re-analyses of Observations, Ensembles and Uncertainties of Climate information Per Undén Coordinator UERRA SMHI.

Cloud, radiation, and precipitation changes with dynamic regime: An observational analysis and model evaluation study PI: George Tselioudis Co-PI: Chris.

Actions & Activities Report PP8 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany 2.1Compilation of Meteorological Observations, 2.2Analysis of.

Latin American and Caribbean Flood and Drought Monitor – What it does and does not do Figure showing current system Coarse resolution 25km, daily Satellite.

Using S2D data to predict spring flood volumes in selected Swedish rivers Kean Foster.

An Introduction to the Climate Change Explorer Tool: Locally Downscaled GCM Data for Thailand and Vietnam Greater Mekong Sub-region – Core Environment.

Climate Change and Sustainable Agricultural Intensification

UERRA WP3 Assessing uncertainties by evaluation against independent observational datasets DWD, KNMI, MI, EDI, UEA, NMA-RO, MO Task 3.1 Coordinated uncertainty.

HYDROCARE Actions & Activities Report and

Impact of climate change on water cycle: trends and challenges

Aidan Burton, Stephen Blenkinsop, Vassilis Glenis, Claire Walsh,

South Eastern Latin America

On the use of indices to study changes in climate extremes

ECA&D Current status and future Maarten van der Hoeven

Presentation transcript:

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 RT5: Evaluation Objective:comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 Evaluation approaches improved observational datasets for Europe global scale key processes / phenomena and s2d forecast skill regional scale statistics of extremes impacts

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 Evaluation approaches improved observational datasets for Europe (my expertise) global scale key processes / phenomena and s2d forecast skill (links to RT4, RT1 and RT2A) regional scale statistics of extremes (links to RT4, RT3 and RT2B) impacts (links to RT6; refer to Andy Morse)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 Evaluation approaches improved observational datasets for Europe

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km) based on ECA&D daily historical station series eca.knmi.nl

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km) based on ECA&D daily historical station series eca.knmi.nl/ensembles

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km) Haylock et al., accepted by JGR scaling issues: interpolation reduces extremes

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km) (or from RT5 website) 400 registered users, 3000 unique website visitors every month

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km) (or from RT5 website) 400 registered users, 3000 unique website visitors every month

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 Remaining Need a unique name for the gridded dataset Guidance on the use of uncertainty information (standard error fields are provided, but not used!) Updates (2007, new version with improved station density, Lambert RCM grid flavour) Datasets for other variables (slp, snow cover, radiation/sunshine)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 Evaluation approaches global scale key processes / phenomena and s2d forecast skill (links to RT4, RT1 and RT2A)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 GCM metrics (Prince Xavier, IPSL)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 GCM metrics vertical circulation regimes in tropical eastern Pacific -> double ITCZ syndrome (Bellucci et al., INGV)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 S2D forecast skill (Antje Weisheimer, ECMWF) (Andreas Weigel, MeteoSwiss)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 Remaining Integration of evaluation results from RT5, feedback to GCM modelers (Stream 2 idea) RT5 contribution to combined weighting GCM/RCM

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 Evaluation approaches regional scale statistics of extremes (links to RT4, RT3 and RT2B)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 Representation of extremes in RCMs using indices Kostopoulou et al. (NOA)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 Representation of trends in extremes using indices Lister et al. (UEA)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 Remaining RT5 contribution to RCM weighting metrics Treatment of extremes in ENSEMBLES across different variables, time scales and spatial scales (next extremes workshop, Riederalp, January 09) Impacts perspective on extremes

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 Impacts perspective Key question in adaptation strategies (design criteria): “How to assess probabilities of extremes in a non- stationary climate?” (May 08 - RT5 workshop in De Bilt organized together with WMO/CLIVAR-ETCCDI)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 Applying the non-stationary extreme-value model to precipitation in the Rhine basin (Martin Hanel, KNMI)