Energy Security in an International Context: The Challenges Herzliya Conference January 2008 Ann Eggington Office of Global Energy Dialogue International Energy Agency

Energy Security DEMANDENVIRONMENT PHYSICAL SECURITY GEOPOLITICS TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT RESERVES AFFORDABILITY Original Artwork By Marjory Spielman

Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand © OECD/IEA, 2007 Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms Oil Coal Gas Biomass Nuclear Other renewables Mtoe

Reference Scenario: New Light-Duty Vehicle Sales in China China’s oil imports jump from 3.5 mb/d in 2006 to 13 mb/d in 2030 – as car ownership increase 7-fold to 140 per people © OECD/IEA, 2007

CO 2 Emissions Stabilisation Case By 2030, emissions are reduced to some 23 Gt, a reduction of 19 Gt compared with the Reference Scenario Gt of CO 2 CCS in industry CCS in power generation Nuclear Renewables Switching from coal to gas End Use electricity efficiency End Use fuel efficiency Reference Scenario 450 Stabilisation Case 27 Gt 42 Gt 23 Gt Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions © OECD/IEA, 2007

Proven Oil Reserves by Region, end (77) ( reserves-to-production ratio, years ) (213) (94) (171) (117) (109) (103) (18) (65) (41) (14) (52) (77) (11) (23) (19) (25) (8) (48) (24)

Proven Gas Reserves and Production by Region

© OECD/IEA, 2007 A Rocky Time for Energy Markets Russia Policy Russia Policy US Refinery Bottlenecks US Refinery Bottlenecks Europe Gas Supplies Europe Gas Supplies Europe Oil Supplies Europe Oil Supplies Iran Nuclear Ambition Iran Nuclear Ambition Iraq: Sabotage Nigeria Civil Unrest Nigeria Civil Unrest Venezuela Resource Nationalism Venezuela Resource Nationalism N-Korea Nuclear Ambition N-Korea Nuclear Ambition US Hurricanes US Hurricanes China Demand increase China Demand increase Strait of Malacca Piracy Strait of Malacca Piracy Indonesia LNG exports Indonesia LNG exports

TOWARDS A SOLUTION Improved transparency Technology Energy efficiency AND…

Slide 10 of 12 The industry’s track record in pushing the limits of technology to access deepwater resources is impressive – and will continue towards reservoirs in greater depths and farther away from the coastline. Ongoing Evolution of Deepwater Technology Courtesy of Shell

Promote energy efficiency: The essential first step Actual energy use Energy efficiency improvements Actual energy use Energy efficiency improvements Hypothetical energy use without energy efficiency improvements Since 1990, the rate of energy efficiency improvement in IEA countries has been less than 1% per year – much lower than in previous decades. We must - and we can - do better! Source: Energy Use in the New Millennium (IEA, 2007)

Major World Oil Supply Disruptions

Unit: million barrels Stockholding in IEA Countries Current stocks Total IEA Stocks by Region (end June 2007)

© OECD/IEA, 2007 North American Blackout August 14 th 2003, 16:00

© OECD/IEA, 2007 Italy left in the Dark 28 th September 2003, 03:30 Spain France UK Italy

© OECD/IEA, 2007 The Welfare Gap – Africa Permanently in the Dark