The External Environment for Developing Countries June 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

Industrial countries

Largest recipients of TARP funds Banks that borrowed funds under TARPAmount Borrowed ($bn) Citigroup50 Bank of America/Merrill Lynch45 JPMorgan Chase25 Wells Fargo25 Goldman Sachs10 Morgan Stanley10 U.S. Bancorp6.6 Bank of New York Mellon Corp.2.5 State Street Corp2.5 Source: U.S. Treasury

USA

Retail sales in U.S. weaken after initial rebound U.S. retail sales values, index, Aug. 2009=100 Motor vehicles and parts Total retail sales Source: Thomson/Datastream, Commerce Department.

Core inflation falling Japanese consumer prices, year-over-year percent change Core inflation Headline inflation Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD.

ECB interest rate and Inflation Eurozone consumer prices, year-over-year percent change Core inflation Headline inflation Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD. ECB Interest rate

Japanese exports to China In Billion Yen Exports to China (RHS) Total exports, excluding China (lhs) Source: Thomson/Datastream

Unemployment close to 2003 Level Percentage of labor force Unemployment rate Source: Thomson/Datastream

Source: Eurostat Euro Area Q1- Sharply lower as stock building turns negative growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Stocks Government Consumption Investment Net Exports

Leading indicators for Europe lag those for the OECD OECD composite leading indicators Germany OECD Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD.

Retail sales in U.S. weaken after initial rebound U.S. retail sales values, index, Aug. 2009=100 Motor vehicles and parts Total retail sales Source: Thomson/Datastream, Commerce Department.

Japanese Industrial Production Volume Index, 2005 = 100 Industrial Production Source: Thomson/Datastream

European unemployment begins to pick up quickly on soft economy number of unemploymed (millions) [L], unemployment rate (%) [R] Source: Eurostat. Unemployment rate [R] # of unemployed [L]

German factory orders moving towards a bottom in February? factory orders, domestic and export, ch% saar Source: Bundesbank. Total domestic orders export orders

Industrial production

OECD industrial production down 34% in February (saar) industrial output, ch% (3m/3m saar) Developing countries High-income OECD countries Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

Continued declines across emerging markets (EAP an exception) industrial production ch% (3m/3m saar) East Asia South Asia Europe and Central Asia Latin America Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

NIEs and Thailand record positve monthly IP gains industrial production ch% (m/m seasonally adjusted) Hong Kong (SAR, China) Thailand Korea Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

International trade

Pace of decline in trade is easing on a momentum basis goods exports, nominal, qtr/qtr ch% (saar) Developing Countries Source: Thomson/Datastream

Oil prices

Crude oil prices rise on OPEC production cuts $/ bbl mb/d Oil price [L scale] OPEC Production [R] Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

World Oil Consumption Growth (mb/d y/y) Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group. OECD Non-OECD

U.S. crude oil stocks rise on weak demand M bbl 5-year high-low ranges Source: U.S. Dept Energy and DECPG Commodities Group.

Non-oil commodity prices

Food prices decline in March on weak demand (2000=100) Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

Copper prices rebound on falling stocks $/ton‘000 tons Copper price LME stocks Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

Consumption Growth (% y/y) AluminumCopperCrude Oil WorldChinaWorldChinaWorldChina average H H Q Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

International Finance

Capital flows down by two-thirds from first-quarter 2008 levels Source: DECPG Finance Team.

Strong returns to EM equities in 2009 Source: Morgan-Stanley through Thomson/Datastream * as of April 17th Total returns yr to date in local currency, % MSCI Developed MSCI EM MSCI BRIC EM BIG Developed HY bond

Volume of EM IPOs has come to a standstill since September 2008 capital raised ($bn) [L], number of deals [R] Source: Dealogic # of deals [R] Capital raised [L]

Currencies

Focus

The External Environment for Developing Countries April 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group