The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 1 Industry skills leadership The demand for skills presentation to ITF conference 2013 Dr Ganesh Nana Chief Economist Business and Economic Research Ltd 12 June 2013
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 3 NZ population 2003 cf 2013
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 4 Change in population over past ten years (2003 to 2013)
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 5 Change in population over next ten years (2013 to 2023)
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 6 Change in population and over ten years hence (2023 to 2033)
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 7 Summary population changes over ten year intervals 000s Total popn WAP (15+) Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 8 Change in labour force over next ten years (2013 to 2023)
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 9 Labour force changes 2013 to 2023 (000s) Total Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 10 Across the industries – issues, prospects and potential
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 11
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 12 Agriculture prospects/potential issues/skill requirements age of existing workforce image *remote / location business expertise *succession
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 13
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 14 Forestry prospects/potential issues/skill requirements age of existing workforce turnover of existing workforce safety remoteness
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 15 Mining and oil & gas prospects/potential issues/skill requirements mitigation environment effects safety remoteness
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 16 Manufacturing prospects/potential issues/skill requirements wages and competitiveness business expertise primary processing new markets
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 17
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 18
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 19 Building and construction prospects/potential the future of NZ economy for next decade is in your hands issues/skill requirements competition for workforce from abroad safety building regulations
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 20 Foreign visitor nights dive
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 21 Yes, visitor numbers are climbing
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 22 But, market is changing
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 23 Resulting in falling yields
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 24 Tourism prospects/potential issues/skill requirements customer service focus the market (is changing fast) business expertise *SMEs cf larger corporates wages
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 25 Other services domestic economy prospects/potential issues/skill requirements wages / staff turnover seen as short-term option, not career competition for workforce *from other industries *from abroad
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 26 Population services eg. education and health prospects/potential issues/skill requirements wages age of existing staff competition for workforce from abroad
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 27 More generally proactive sector leadership *even in absence of growth, training required to replace existing workforce *response to ageing, mentoring, succession *response to standards and related aspects use/attraction of recent migrants *skill requirements *familiarise with NZ context ethnicity dimension
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 28 Summary population changes 2013 to s Total popn WAP (15+) Māori Total Statistics NZ cyclic migration and Series 6 scenarios
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 29 Economic dependency ratio ratio of total popn to labour force
The demand for skills – ITF conf – slide 30 NZ 2023 population