IPCC DR. R. K. PACHAURI Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute Director, Yale Climate & Energy Institute CLIMATE CHANGE AND CREATING A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE 9 th October 2011, Mongolia

IPCC OBSERVED CHANGES Global average sea level Northern hemisphere snow cover Global average temperature Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007

IPCC PROJECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES ( relative to ) ( o C) Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21 st century (best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC)

IPCC INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC SINCE ABOUT Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate

IPCC AVERAGE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES INCREASED AT ALMOST TWICE THE GLOBAL AVERAGE RATE IN THE PAST 100 YEARS - Annual average arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7% per decade

IPCC MORE INTENSE AND LONGER DROUGHTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER WIDER AREAS SINCE THE 1970s, PARTICULARLY IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS Photo credit: GoodPlanet

IPCC IMPACTS ON HUMAN HEALTH Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts Exacerbation of the abundance and toxicity of cholera due to increase in coastal water temperature Increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts Projected climate change-related exposures are likely to affect the health status of millions of people, particularly those with low adaptive capacity

IPCC Glaciers in Asia are melting faster in recent years than before, particularly the Zerafshan glacier, the Abramov glacier and the glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau Glacier melt is projected to increase mudflows, flooding, rock avalanches and adversely affect water resources within the next 2 to 3 decades as well as affect people dependent on glacial melt for their water resources. Rapid thawing of permafrost and decrease in depths of frozen soils due largely to rising temperature has threatened many cities and human settlements, has caused more frequent landslides and degeneration of some forest ecosystems, and has resulted in increased lake-water levels in the permafrost region of Asia. IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

IPCC IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY Water stress at low latitudes means losses of productivity for both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture Possible yield reduction in agriculture: 50% by 2020 in some African countries 30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia 30% by 2080 in Latin America Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa due to climate variability and change

IPCC VULNERABLE POPULATIONS Vulnerability in developing regions and among poor & marginalised communities is aggravated by low adaptive capacity and non-climate stresses, such as:  Dependence on climate-sensitive resources  Integrity of key infrastructure  Preparedness and planning  Sophistication of the public health system  Exposure to conflict Without appropriate measures, climate change will likely exacerbate the poverty situation and continue to slow down economic growth in developing countries

IPCC POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MIGRATION AND CONFLICTS Numbers of environmental refugees could increase as extreme events, floods and famines become more frequent Rising ethnic conflicts can be linked to competition over increasingly scarce natural resources  Climate change could force hundreds of millions of people from their native land by the end of the century

IPCC Stabilization level (ppm CO 2 -eq) Global mean temp. increase (ºC) Year CO 2 needs to peak Global sea level rise above pre- industrial from thermal expansion (m) 445 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 2.4 CHARACTERISTICS OF STABILIZATION SCENARIOS POST-TAR STABILIZATION SCENARIOS

IPCC GDP without mitigation GDP with stringent mitigation 2030 GDP Time Current Mitigation would postpone GDP growth of one year at most over the medium term Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP IMPACTS OF MITIGATION ON GDP GROWTH

IPCC All stabilization levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available or expected to be commercialized in coming decades This assumes that investment flows, technology transfer and incentives are in place for technology development

IPCC BEYOND TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION The pace, cost and extent of our response to climate change will depend critically on the cost, performance, and availability of technologies The move towards a low-carbon development pathway requires the adoption of adequate measures:  Effective carbon-price signal  Regulations, standards, taxes and charges  Changes in lifestyle INSTRUMENTS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES

IPCC RENEWABLE ENERGY GROWTH RAPID INCREASE IN RECENT YEARS 140 GW of new RE power plant capacity was built in This equals 47% of all power plants built during that period

IPCC TECHNICAL ADVANCEMENTS : TECHNICAL ADVANCEMENTS : Growth in size of typical commercial wind turbines 17

IPCC RE costs have declined in the past and further declines can be expected in the future. 18

IPCC RE and Climate Change Mitigation Policies 2004

IPCC RE and Climate Change Mitigation Policies 2011

IPCC LaBl LIGHTING A BILLION LIVES

IPCC A technological society has two choices. First it can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions… Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures.