Climate Change and The NW Power Supply Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest University of Washington April 21, 2009

2 Outline NW Power and Conservation Council CIG data used by the Council Assessing impacts to power and fish Dealing with climate uncertainty The Northwest’s carbon footprint

April 21, NW Power and Conservation Council

April 21, NW Power and Conservation Council Created by Congress in 1980 Tasks 1.Power plan 2.Fish and wildlife program 3.Develop in a public forum Jurisdiction covers Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Montana

April 21, CIG Data used by the Council

April 21, Global Climate Models Climate Impacts Group – University of Washington Up to 20 climate models At least 2 GHG scenarios Downscaled for the NW Provide forecasts for: Temperature changes Altered river flows

April 21, CIG Forecasts for Changes to NW Temperature and Precipitation

April 21, CIG Forecast Changes Runoff volume and river flow Volume not likely to change significantly Higher winter flows, lower summer flows Temperature More likely to increase than decrease Could be as much as 3 0 F higher by 2040 Or 6 0 F higher by 2080

April 21, Temperature Effects on Demand (Illustrative Only)

April 21, Change in Natural The Dalles Higher Winter Flows Lower Summer Flows Earlier Peak

April 21, Assessing Impacts to Power and Fish

April 21, Council’s Genesys Model Monte Carlo analysis Uncertainties include: 1.Water supply 2.Electricity demand 3.Resource forced outages 4.Wind generation Monthly and hourly hydro simulation

April 21, Genesys Model Assessments Reservoir elevations Project outflows Project/system generation Power system cost

April 21, Change in Regulated The Dalles Forecast for 2040 Illustrative Only

April 21, Summary of Impacts Changes to:WinterSummer FlowsHigherLower DemandLowerHigher Impacts to: PowerBetterWorse FishNeutralWorse RevenueHigherLower

April 21, Observations & Recommendations Recognize that there will be no “bright line” indicating climate change Link reservoir operations to streamflow forecasts Must develop better forecasting methods for the Fall

April 21, Dealing with Climate Change Uncertainty

April 21, Council’s Portfolio Model Monte Carlo analysis 20-year planning horizon Multiple random variables Calculates average cost and economic risk of various resource plans A “plan” is a specific set of new resources About 1,400 plans are analyzed Each plan is evaluated over 750 different futures Plots cost vs. economic risk relationship

April 21, Portfolio Model Uncertainties Electricity demand Fuel prices Hydroelectric generation Electricity prices Forced outage rates Aluminum prices Carbon dioxide tax Wind resource production tax credit Green tag value for wind resources Background

April 21, Adding Climate Change as an Uncertainty is Difficult 1.Need to know the likelihood of occurrence for each GCM scenario

April 21, Illustration of Uncertainty in Climate Models Natural Climate Variation Each point represents the projected temperature and precipitation change for one climate model run

April 21, Draw from GCM Scenarios based on the Likelihood of Occurrence Likelihood of occurrence

April 21, Adding Climate Change as an Uncertainty is Difficult 1.Need to know the likelihood of occurrence for each GCM scenario 2.Also, for each year of each scenario: Adjusted streamflows (70 sets) Adjusted demand (70 sets) Modified flood control levels (70 sets) Modified refill levels (70 sets) Modified max drafting limits (70 sets)

April 21, The NW’s Carbon Footprint

April 21, Carbon Footprint for the Northwest

April 21, CO 2 Sources

April 21, Over 88% of the NW’s power system CO 2 emissions are from existing coal-fired plants.

April 21, Methods to Reduce GHG Emissions Reduce electricity demand Reduce operation of carbon producing resources Acquire non-carbon producing resources Sequester carbon emissions

April 21, GHG Reduction Policies Emissions Performance Standards Carbon Cap & Trade Emission Reduction Goals Renewable Portfolio Standards Tax Incentives and Credits Carbon Tax

April 21, Emission Impacts of Various Actions

April 21, Observations Existing renewable portfolio standards and banning new coal plants will not hold CO 2 emissions to 2005 levels Reducing NW CO 2 emissions from power production to 1990 levels or below will require changes to existing coal plants Sixth power plan will assess the most cost effective means to reduce CO 2