Beef Cattle Situation and Outlook. 1.39 million tons.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Livestock Situation and Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock.
Advertisements

Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock. Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock.
BEEF CATTLE MARKET OUTLOOK AND TRENDS DR. CURT LACY EXTENSION ECONOMIST-LIVESTOCK.
Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor University of Missouri-Columbia Chicken & Competing Meats.
Socio-Economic Impacts of U.S. Ethanol Bruce A. Babcock Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University.
Red Meat and Poultry Outlook Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock.
Outlook for the U.S. Meat Sector in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board U.S. Department of Agriculture Outlook 2011 Canberra,
Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington,
Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets Simla Tokgoz Center for Agricultural.
Current Economic Climate of the Cattle Business Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma.
James Robb Director – LMIC 655 Parfet Street Suite E310 Lakewood, CO Beef and Cattle --- Market Situation and Outlook Midwest,
Photos courtesy of USDA Jason Henderson Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Omaha Branch May 14, 2008 U.S. AGRICULTURE: What Goes Up Must.
Ron Plain Extension Economist University of Missouri-Columbia Stocker Cattle Outlook February 2009.
Chapter 10 Enterprise Budgeting
The New World of Biofuels: Implications for Agriculture and Energy Keith Collins, Chief Economist, USDA EIA Energy Outlook, Modeling, and Data Conference.
Don Shurley Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics The University of Georgia Georgia Farm Bureau February 10, 2011 Macon, GA.
Beef Cattle Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock University of Georgia Florida Cattlemen’s Institute January 26, 2012.
Maintaining U.S. Beef Industry Competitiveness with High-Priced Grain Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness And Livestock Marketing Specialist.
Current Situation “If you owe the bank $1,00 dollars, that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $1 million that’s the banks problem”
Agricultural Economics Beef, Dairy, and Equine Kenny Burdine UK Ag Economics.
Ron Plain April 22, 2015 Cattle Outlook (title). Source: USDA/ERS 10 monthly records in 2014.
1 Livestock Outlook and Economics Brenda L. Boetel University of Wisconsin – River Falls August 2008.
The Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment Bruce A. Babcock Center for Agricultural.
Ross Pruitt Extension Livestock Economist. Summary  Recap of Overall Meat Complex in 2009  Beef Situation and Outlook  Poultry Situation and Outlook.
Cow-Calf Outlook and Profitability Kenny Burdine and Greg Halich UK Ag Economics.
Hay and Feedstuffs Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock.
Outlook and Market Update for 2012 Corn Short Course and Georgia Corn Growers Annual Meeting January 17, 2012 Dr. Nathan B. Smith Extension Economist.
Beef Cattle Situation and Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy and Dr. John McKissick Extension Livestock Economists.
Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock. Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock.
Chapter 10 Enterprise Budgeting
Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2012 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington,
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL METHODOLOGY 217 surveys sent to one representative at each agribusiness.
Corn and Soybean Prices and Outlook Ag Prices Conference August 27, 2008 Wisconsin Dells Rami Reddy UW-Platteville.
Kurt M. Guidry Gilbert Durbin Professor LSU AgCenter Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness 2010 LSU AgCenter’s Outlook Conference Outlook.
Business innovation in agriculture, food and natural resources Ag Situation and Outlook By Bill Knudson.
Biofuel Impacts on Midwestern Agriculture Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University January 16, Wisconsin.
Costs and Profitability Outlook for 2006 Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock University of Georgia.
Feed Outlook Jim Dunn Ag Economist Pennsylvania State University.
1 Cattle Outlook 2011 and Beyond Shane Ellis Extension Livestock Economist Iowa State University August 16, 2011.
Feed Grain and Wheat Market Situation And Outlook 2001 Southern Region Agricultural Outlook Conference September 25,2001 Kurt M. Guidry Associate Specialist.
Department of Economics Feed Price Outlook Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling Webcast Ames, Iowa August 25, 2008 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain.
Department of Economics Crop Outlook Ames, Iowa August 22, 2008 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Department of Economics Crop Market Outlook Northeast ISU Research Farm 2008 Fall Field Day Nashua, Iowa Sept. 4, 2008 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain.
Agricultural Commodity Outlook Gerald A. Bange Chairperson World Agricultural Outlook Board Office of the Chief Economist U.S. Department of Agriculture.
2014 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma State.
1 Livestock Outlook Gary Brester MSU Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics Agriculture Outlook 2008: Farm Bill, Wind Energy & Climate Change.
Department of Economics Current Feed Situation and Outlook Iowa Egg Industry Symposium Ames, Iowa November 5, 2008 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain.
Department of Economics Crop Market Outlook 2009 Weather, Crop, & Livestock Outlook Seminar Hills, Iowa January 28, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain.
Corn and Wheat Market Overview and Outlook by Cory G. Walters Southern Regional Outlook Conference Agricultural Economics.
Department of Economics Global Grain Markets Global Agriculture Conference Spencer, Iowa February 26, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets.
Beef Marketing Update Kenny Burdine UK Agricultural Economics Economics.
Department of Economics Crop Market Outlook November 2008 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Department of Economics Crop Outlook Iowa Bankers Association Ag Conference Ames, Iowa March 23, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist.
U.S. Beef Export Update & Beef Market Situation in U.S. Erin Daley Economist, USMEF Seoul, Korea June 23, 2009.
Drought 2012: Impact and Implications for Animal Agriculture
Biofuel Impacts on Midwestern Agriculture
Livestock and Grains Situation and Outlook January 2018
Ethanol and Livestock: Synergies or Competition?
Bioeconomy Impacts on Midwestern Agriculture
Crop Market Outlook 4th Annual Beginning Farmers Conference Ames, Iowa
Agricultural Economic Outlook
Livestock & Crop Outlook
Crop Market Outlook North Central Iowa Research Farm Annual Meeting
Let’s Talk about Ethanol
2013 Corn Market Outlook Fuels America Congressional Briefing
Current Feed Situation and Outlook
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Economics of Crop & Livestock Production
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Presentation transcript:

Beef Cattle Situation and Outlook

1.39 million tons

Major Items to Watch this Year  Price of corn  Total meat production  Economy  Crude oil prices  U.S. currency value

Livestock Marketing Information Center

2008 Outlook

Recent and Projected Beef Supply

Total Meat Supplies

What is the Market Offering Today- Futures Based Price Projections

What You Can Sell for Today-Futures Based Price Projections

Inputs

Fertilizer Prices Nitrogen prices have increased 91% since 2002

Fuel Prices Diesel prices are up 300% since 2002

Impact of Fuel & Fertilizer Prices on Cost of Production

Projected Profits for 2008 ItemSouth Georgia North Georgia Expected Returns Over Variable Costs ($/cow) ($3.13)($30.58) Chance for positive returns48%30% Returns to Land, Labor, Capital and Management ($/cow) $56.87($2.80) Breakeven Price ($/cwt.)$100.32$101.73

BEEF COWS THAT HAVE CALVED JANUARY 1, 2008 (1000 Head) Alaska Hawaii US Total Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2007 TO JANUARY 1, 2008 (1000 Head) Alaska Hawaii US Total Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS -1.0%

DEMAND FOR FEEDERS

Price Differences between classes

Energy Bill  36 billion gallons of ethanol used by blenders by  15 billion gallons required to come from corn by  15 billion gallons ethanol ≈5.4 billion bushels of corn.  2007 U.S. corn crop = billion bushels.  At 2007 yield of 151 bushels, need million acres just for ethanol.

Longer Term Trends  Continued pressure from input prices.  Continued consolidation in the beef industry.  Continuing favorable beef demand.  Expanding growth in grass-fed and natural beef segments.  Animal traceability/mandatory animal ID.

Summary & Implications  Supply The herd has expanded some but the drought has halted growth for this year. Feeder cattle supplies are tight, … and will be for a while.  Demand Demand for beef remains good but,…economy is a big question!! Higher corn prices will reduce demand for feeders Exports will help.  Profits Most cow-calf producers will be hard pressed to cover out of pocket expenses for next 2-4 years. Higher feed, fuel and fertilizer costs will continue to squeeze profits. We are probably going to have to change our way of doing business. High-quality, source-verified, preconditioned cattle will always top the market.