Hartanto Respati University of Yogyakarta Democratization Hartanto Respati University of Yogyakarta

Three Waves of Democracy In his book The Third Wave, Samuel Huntington argues that there have been three waves of democratization in modern history. Samuel P. Huntington

The Three Waves: When?

Huntington’s Definition of Democracy Huntington offers two definitions of democracy that apply to different periods of time. Definition 1 -Applies to 19th Century. 50% of adult males can vote. There is an executive that either maintains majority support in an elected parliament, or is chosen in periodic popular elections.

Huntington’s Definition of Democracy - Applies to 20th Century. Virtually all adults can vote. Leaders are selected through fair, honest and periodic elections.

The First Wave: Why? Occurred mostly in Northern Europe and white settler countries. The causes are: Economic Factors: First countries to experience economic development, industrialization and urbanization. Emergence of middle class. Decrease in economic inequality.

The First Wave: Why? Historical events and intellectual developments: French Revolution. American Revolution. John Locke. Montesquieu. John Stuart Mill.

The First Wave: Why? Religious Factors World War One Over 75% of the countries that democratized in the first wave had majority Protestant populations. World War One Democratic countries defeated two large authoritarian empires, the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires. This produced snowballing, or a demonstration effect, that encouraged the development of democracy.

The Second Wave: Why? The second wave is largely related to WW2. Imposition of Democracy. Allied powers imposed democracy on certain defeated countries, such as Japan and Germany. Snowballing (demonstration) effect. Some countries independently chose to be democratic.

The Second Wave: Why? Decolonization. Countries that had a number of colonies (e.g. Britain, France, Holland and Portugal) were severely weakened after WW2. The United States pressured these countries to give up their colonies. Many former colonies became independent and democratic.

The Third Wave: Why? Some 30 countries became democratic. Legitimacy. Democratic ideas became widely accepted. Authoritarian regimes could not solve economic problems as efficiently as democratic countries. Economic Growth. Higher standards of living and education contributed to the expansion of the urban middle class.

The Third Wave: Why? Change in the Catholic church. Foreign Policy. The Catholic church, which used to be a supporter of authoritarian regimes, changed its doctrine and practice and supported democracy. Foreign Policy. Expansion of the EU. Promotion of democracy and human rights by the United States. Fall of the Soviet Union.

The Third Wave: Why? Snowball (or demonstration effect). Early third wave transitions received great media attention, which later stimulated transitions in other countries.

Democratic Transition Democratic transition requires three components. The end of an authoritarian regime. The installation of a new democratic regime (through elections). The consolidation of this democratic regime.

Democratic Transition A/a-d-D A = stable, long-lasting authoritarian regime. D = stable, long-lasting democratic regime. a = unstable, short-lived authoritarian regime. d = unstable, short-lived democratic regime. Stable Authoritarianism Unstable Democracy Stable Democracy Unstable Authoritarianism Time

Processes of Democratization Huntington identifies three different types of democratization process. Democratic transformation. takes place when powerholders take the lead in bringing about democracy. Democratic replacement. takes place when opposition groups take the lead in bringing about democracy. Old authoritarian regime is overthrown. Democratic transplacement. takes place when there is joint action by the government and opposition groups to promote democratization.

Prospects for Democratic Consolidation The following conditions facilitate democratic consolidation. Previous experience of democracy. Relatively high GNP per capita. Favorable external environment. Democratic transition at an earlier, rather than later, stage in the third wave. Democratization via transplacement, rather than transformation or replacement. The following slides discuss each of these conditions more in detail.

1. Previous Democratic Experience Huntington argues that: Some experience of democracy is better than none. Longer experience of democracy is better than shorter experience. The more recent the democratic experience, the better.

Chart: Years of Democratic Experience More than 20 years Uruguay, The Philippines, India, Turkey, Chile 10-19 years Greece, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Korea, Pakistan, Brazil 1-9 years Argentina, Honduras, Guatemala, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Grenada, Nigeria Less than one year Spain, Portugal, El Salvador, Poland, Romania, East Germany, Bulgaria, Nicaragua, Sudan, Mongolia

2. Level of Economic Development The higher level of economic development, the greater the likelihood of stable democracy. Economically developed countries have: More industrialized economies. More modern economies. More complex societies. Better educated populations. These factors all help consolidate democracy.

Chart: Democracy and GNP per capita Higher than $5, 000 Spain, East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria $2, 000 – $4, 999 Greece, Portugal, Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Poland, Romania, Korea $1, 000 – $1, 999 Ecuador, Peru, Turkey, Grenada, Chile $500 – $999 Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Bolivia, The Philippines Less than $500 India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sudan

3. The External Environment A foreign country can have a positive influence on democratic consolidation, if the relevant foreign government: is itself democratic. promotes democracy in other countries. has close relations with the third wave country in question. is able to exercise influence in the third wave country in question.

Chart: External Environment and Democracy Extremely favorable East Germany, Spain, Portugal, Greece Quite Favorable Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Turkey, The Philippines, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Grenada Favorable Peru, Ecuador, Uruguay, Korea, Chile Unfavorable Argentina, Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sudan, Romania, Bulgaria, Mongolia

4. The Timing of the Democratic Transition Early = Indigenous Earlier democratizations are more likely to be the result of indigenous causes, rather than a snowball effect. Indigenous = Consolidation Democratic transitions caused by indigenous factors are more likely to lead to consolidated democracies. Therefore, Early = Consolidation The earlier a country democratizes within the third wave, the more likely it is to become a consolidated democracy.

First Dates of Elections and Democracy Before 1980 Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ecuador, India, Nigeria, 1980 – 1983 Peru, Argentina, Bolivia, Honduras, Turkey 1984 – 1987 Uruguay, Brazil, The Philippines, El Salvador, Guatemala, Korea, Grenada, Sudan 1988 – 1990 Pakistan, Poland, Hungary, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Chile Possible after 1990 Mexico, Soviet Union, South Africa, Taiwan, Nepal, Panama

5. Process of Democratic Transition Huntington identified three processes of democratic transition; transformation, replacement and transplacement. Huntington argues: There is more chance of a successful democratic consolidation if elites from the previous non-democratic regime are satisfied. There is less chance of democratic consolidation if the transition involved violence. If the above statements are true, it follows that transplacement is most likely to lead to consolidated democracy.

Chart: Transition Process and Democracy   Type of Old Regime Transition Process One party Personal Military Racial Oligarchy Transplacement Poland Czechoslovakia Nicaragua Mongolia (Nepal) Uruguay Bolivia Honduras El Salvador Korea (South Africa) Transformation Hungary Bulgaria (Taiwan) (USSR) Spain India Chile Turkey Brazil Peru Guatemala Ecuador Nigeria Pakistan Sudan   Replacement East Germany Portugal The Philippines Romania Greece Argentina  

Chart: Overall Prospects for Democracy Most Favorable Greece, Portugal, Spain, East Germany, Uruguay, Turkey Less Favorable but Supportive Czechoslovakia, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru, Honduras, India, Argentina, Brazil, The Philippines, Poland, Hungary, (Korea) Less Favorable Guatemala, Grenada, Nigeria, El Salavador, Pakistan, Nicaragua, Bulgaria, Mongolia Especially Unfavorable Sudan, Romania

Chart: Freedom Classification by Freedom House (2003) Greece, Portugal, Spain, East Germany, Uruguay, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Brazil, The Philippines, India, Poland, Hungary, Grenada, Bulgaria, El Salvador, Mongolia, Romania, Korea Partly Free Turkey, Ecuador, Honduras, Argentina, Guatemala, Nigeria, Nicaragua Not Free Pakistan, Sudan http://www.freedomhouse.org

Spreading democracies or dim-ocracies in the Middle East? Image: www.caglecartoons.com

Middle East Geographic area Not cultural, ethnic, linguistic, or religious Not all Arab countries

The Arab World… (based on Arab League Membership)

Middle East Political Landscape Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Index 2000 Democracy Civil, Political Rights Press Freedom Corruption Jordan 7 6 4 Egypt 8 Saudi Arabia 9 n/a Kuwait 5 Turkey 3 Iraq Algeria Morocco Columbia Key: 1=Good 9=Poor; Source: http:// www.carleton.ca/cifp/

Authoritarian Middle Eastern Regimes April 2002: 5,000 demonstrate outside Al-Azhar mosque; Source: Al-Ahram There are more authoritarian regimes in the ME than anywhere else Repression, exclusion of political participation ‘insular’/resist globaliz’n Large youth population →Hopelessness, extremism What encourages democratization?

Internal Factors that Encourage Democratization… National unity– ‘togetherness’ Political leadership-- personalities Historical legacy-- colonialism Political culture– people view power Ethnic harmony-- cooperation Strong political parties-- brokerage Political institutions—legisl; judiciary Socioeconomic development– middle class Relationship among classes–bourgeoisie National security– no external threat Map of Saudi Arabia

External Factors that Encourage Democratization… International organizations UN declaration of human rights International law; ICC State pressure EU; foreign aid Economic Factors MNCs, entrepreneurs Globalization Waves of democracy Huntington: “snowballing”

George W. Bush on November 6th 2003 at the National Endowment for Democracy “As long as the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment, and violence, ready for export…. The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution.”

What is the Future of the Political Landscape in the Middle East? Domino Democratization in the Middle East US administration professes Unleashing political darkness: dim-ocracy Skeptics

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